Predictions

The weekend hasn't even begun yet and a member of the top 25 has already lost (#24 South Florida). Here's a look at the weekend's biggest games.

Northwestern @ #20 Minnesota
The Gophers are 7-1, and 3-1 in the Big T-eleven. They're stuck behind unbeaten Penn State, and Ohio State (Minnesota's only loss), so I don't think a Big Ten title is in the cards. However, a New Year's Day bowl in sunny Florida is certainly in the cards. The closing schedule is manageable, with 3 of their final 4 at home. Northwestern started off strong, but has come back to earth of late. Minnesota wins, 33-23.

Wisconsin @ #22 Michigan State
Michigan State has to be on letdown alert after their emotional win in Ann Arbor. The Spartans are dueling with teams like Ohio State and Minnesota for the choice New Year's bowl slots. Reps from these bowl games will be looking for strong finishes before handing out those invites. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is fighting just to make a bowl game. The Badgers are 4-4, and they played much better on offense with Dustin Sherer at quarterback last week in a win over Illinois. Wisconsin RB P.J. Hill returns to the lineup, but the Badgers will be without TE Travis Beckum for the rest of the season. I like the upset here, Wisconsin 24-23.

Miami, FL @ Virginia
Uh, don't look now, but Virginia is closing in on a spot in the ACC Championship Game. You read that correctly. The Cavs have won 4 straight after a 1-3 start. The streak includes a 31-0 whipping of Maryland, a win over East Carolina, a win over North Carolina, and a critical road victory at Georgia Tech. At 5-3 overall, and 3-1 in the Coastal Division, Virginia owns a half game lead, and the tiebreaker, over the Yellow Jackets. Virginia has a lot of work left, however, because no team has more than 2 losses in the division. There is no margin for error. Take Virginia's momentum over an inexperienced Canes team, 17-13.

West Virginia @ Connecticut
The Mountaineers are the only unbeaten team in Big East conference play, but they are a long way from securing another title. Connecticut, Cincinnati, Louisville, and Pitt are just behind, each with only 1 conference loss. As luck would have it, those are the next 4 opponents for West Virginia. This is a big game for the Huskies, but I don't see how they stop the deadly combo of QB Pat White and RB Noel Devine. Too much speed. West Virginia, 41-23.

#19 Tulsa @ Arkansas
Arkansas has won 16 straight games in this series, but the traveling Golden Hurricanes are better than a touchdown favorite in Little Rock. Tulso is 8-0 and looking for a big non-conference win against a BCS team to help boost their computer numbers. I feel for the Arkansas defensive staff this week. Here are Tulsa's point totals this season: 45, 56, 56, 62, 63, 37, 77, 49. Tulsa's remaining schedule doesn't feature a single team with a winning record, but there is some cache that comes with beating an SEC team on the road. Tulsa will most likely face East Carolina, however, in the Conference USA Championship Game. Arkansas has lost 5 of its last 6 games (the lone win . . . at Auburn, ugh). They have been competitive, however, in each of the last 3 games. The Hogs' defense has begun to play much better. Expect them to be fired up for this game, but I think Tulsa has too much offense. Tulsa, 31-28.

#16 Florida State @ Georgia Tech
Florida State is currently tied with Maryland for the lead in the Atlantic Division. Georgia Tech, which has looked better than expected under first-year coach Paul Johnson, was upset by Virginia at home last Saturday. I think Tech will struggle to move the ball against the Noles' defense. Expect a low-scoring defensive game, won by the visitors. FSU, 16-6.

#5 Florida @ #8 Georgia (Jacksonville, FL)
Does Florida retaliate for last year's big Georgia TD celebration? Better question: who cares? Well, CBS probably will, so be prepared to endure references to the 2007 game ad nauseum. It's week 2 of the SEC Elimination Series, designed to whittle down the championship contenders. Last week, Georgia knocked off LSU. This week, either the Bulldogs or the Gators will receive that 2nd loss that takes them out of the national championship conversation. I like the Gators because they have a better run defense than Georgia. The Gators allowed LSU just 80 yards rushing, while Georgia allowed LSU to pile up 188 rush yards. If Florida can take away Knowshon Moreno and make the Bulldogs one-dimensional, then they will live to fight another week in the BCS top 10. Florida, 27-23.

#1 Texas @ #6 Texas Tech
College football royalty versus the nouveau-riche. The Longhorns are a clear-cut #1, and they've played a daunting schedule thus far. The Red Raiders are about to begin a similar stretch of games that will test their championship mettle. The question for Texas Tech has always been: Is their defense good enough to help their offense out? This year, I think it is, However, Texas' offense has been other-worldly this season. Colt McCoy is completing over 80% of his passes. That is insane. The Texas defense has given up it's share of points this season (see Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State), but the offense has been so good that the margins of victory have remained comfortable. I think you'll see more the same this Saturday. Tech will get its points, but Texas will get more, a lot more. Texas 51-37.

#10 Utah @ New Mexico
Why is this game on the list, you ask? Because Utah might be looking ahead to next week's home date against TCU. Utah is dueling with Tulsa and Boise State for that non-BCS-conference automatic berth in the BCS. Utah has 2 critical games remaining, TCU and BYU. That's why I think this trip to Albuquerque is dangerous. New Mexico is only 4-5, but they did beat Arizona earlier in the season. This is also the final home game of the season for the Lobos, and teams have a way of taking their game to the next level on Senior Night. Utah holds on, barely, 31-30.

Inside the Numbers

Here's a look at how Auburn and Ole Miss compare heading into this Saturday's game.

OFFENSE:

Total -

UM 377.6 yds/game (55th)

AU 288.5 yds/game (109th)

Passing -

UM 215.6 yds/game (60th)

AU 151.5 (106th)

Rushing -

UM 162.0 yds/game (48th)

AU 137.0 yds/game (66th)

Scoring -

UM 27.2 pts/game (50th)

AU 18.8 pts/game (102nd)

DEFENSE:

Total -

UM 345.1 yds/game (55th)

AU 294.2 yds/game (17th)

Passing -

UM 234.3 yds/game

AU 166.0 yds/game

Rushing -

UM 110.8 yds/game (29th)

AU 128.2 yds/game (51st)

Scoring -

UM 24.3 pts/game (59th)

AU 15.7 pts/game (13th)

ODDS & ENDS

Ole Miss ranks 11th in the country in tackles-for-loss (7.88 per game).

Ole Miss ranks 26th in the country in sacks allowed (1.25 per game).

Auburn is first in the SEC (#5 in nation) in kickoff returns (26.54 yards per return).

Robert Dunn is first in the SEC (#2 in nation) in punt returns (21.44 yards per return)

Antonio Coleman leads the SEC in sacks/game and tackles-for-loss/game

Dave's Power 10

1. Texas (8-0) – Colt McCoy was out of his mind against Oklahoma State (84% completion, 391 yds), but the Cowboys still had a chance to win that game. The key was a good running game (229 yds) that kept the ball away from McCoy long enough to keep the score close. Next up for the Longhorns is yet another top-10 match-up of undefeated teams when they visit Texas Tech.

2. Penn State (9-0) – Gutsy win in the Horseshoe last week. With only three games remaining, the Nittany Lions will be favored in all of them. Despite their offensive struggles in Columbus, the Penn State attack still features balance (226 rushing yds/game; 233 passing yds/game). Combine that with marquee DE Aaron Maybin (11 sacks), and Joe Pa can almost taste Miami.

3. Alabama (8-0) – Tennessee once again displayed no offense (something we see a great deal of at Auburn), and the Tide slowly buried the Volunteers in Knoxville. John Wilson continues to limit his errors (3 INTs in 176 attempts) enough to allow the defense and running game to control the game.

4. Southern California (6-1) – One way to contain the Trojans is to force turnovers and protect the ball. Arizona almost stole a win in Tucson with this strategy, but the superior USC defense clamped down and denied any Wildcat comeback. Once again, the remaining schedule looks extremely favorable for another BCS trip.

5. Texas Tech (8-0) – It was a video game in Lawrence last Saturday, but that's par for the course in the Big XII these days. The Red Raiders sit atop the offensive rankings (#1 Passing; #2 Total; #3 Scoring), but now must face their biggest challenge . . . so far. Expect a shootout in Lubbock. Tech is 20-60-1 overall versus the Longhorns, and haven't won at home in the series since 2002.

6. Florida (6-1) – The Gators absolutely pasted a decent Kentucky squad, and now demonstrate a fierce defense (top-15 in all major categories) to compliment their special teams. All eyes will be on Jacksonville this weekend to see how many times CBS shows last year's footage of Georgia's team rushing the field after that touchdown. Revenge should be sweet.

7. Oklahoma (7-1) – Speaking of video games, the Sooners scored 28 points during the last 6:30 of the 1st half to take a 55-28 lead into halftime. Oddly, only 10 total points were scored in the 2nd half of that game. No Big XII team has a top-40 defense, so any evidence of defensive competence merits attention.

8. Georgia (7-1) – LSU continues to underachieve, and Georgia jumped out early on the Bayou Bengals to win in Baton Rouge. Three INTs (two returned for TDs) put the Bulldogs too far ahead in a game resembling a Big XII contest. It will be a game of stars in Jacksonville to determine the SEC East.

9. Boise State (7-0) – Only two more home games on the blue turf remain for the Broncos, but one is the finale against Fresno State. The "Fly in the Ointment" lives on after surviving in San Jose.

10. Utah (8-0) – After an off-week, the Utes travel to New Mexico before coming back home for TCU. Given Utah's mediocre offensive numbers, the Horned Frogs' defense (#1 Rushing; #2 Total and Scoring) will be ready. Texas Christian DE Jerry Hughes (12 sacks) should make things difficult for Brian Johnson & Co.

Defending the Spread

This Thursday's game between Auburn and West Virginia will feature two teams that run the spread offense. West Virginia has employed the spread since 2002, and it shows. They have perhaps the best run-threat spread QB in the country, Pat White. West Virginia's spread offense is diverse, well-organized, and lethal. The Mountaineers have had several years to recruit players uniquely suited to the spread offense. Auburn, using the spread for the first time this year, is still learning the nuances and continuing the transition from a traditional power offense. Auburn's defense should be well prepared for this game because they get to see the spread offense every day at practice. This leads to an interesting question: How do you stop the spread? There are three areas you need to be good at on the defensive side of the ball:

Defensive Team Speed
Excellent Open Field Tacklers
Gap Responsibility and Pursuit Discipline

There are certainly more complex aspects of defensive gameplanning that teams employ to stop the spread offense, but it's really too much to get into whether an odd front is better than an even front, sliding to strength or away from strength, slanting, angling, cover-2, cover-3, combo coverage, etc., is the best approach. I'll leave that up to Paul Rhoads and his defensive assistants. Let's start with these three fundamentals that every team needs in order to stop a spread offense.

1) Defensive Team Speed
It's obvious when you look at the landscape of both the college or high school game that players like Patrick White (West Virginia), Noel Devine (West Virginia), Armanti Edwards (Appalachian State), Terrelle Pryor (Ohio State), and Percy Harvin (Florida) have required defenses to have fast, athletic players to match the speed of these great athletes. When I say "speed," I don't mean 100 meter dash speed per say, but football speed, which is usually an athlete that not only can run fast in a straight line, but can also run fast, stop, then re-start again at a rapid rate. Change of direction speed, the ability to accelerate, decelerate, then re-accelerate at a rapid pace. Is a player born with this? Some are for sure. Can a player work on this type of speed? Absolutely. It's called change of direction training, and such training facilities as The Parisi Speed School and Velocity Training teach it around the country. Parisi calls it "Deceleration Training."

Tommy Tuberville, I think, has been ahead of the curve in this respect for several years. Tuberville has long preferred smaller, faster, linebackers that can quickly cover ground from one sideline to the other. Auburn's linebackers are more the size of a what a traditional safety would be. This focus on speed and athleticism, rather than size and brute strength, has enabled Auburn's defense to match up well with an opposing offense's playmakers. The advantage was certainly obvious in upset wins over Florida in 2006 and 2007.

2) Excellent Open Field Tacklers

The one big thing a spread offense trys to exploit is the need for defenses to be in open space, often with even numbers of offensive and defensive players in a particular section of the field; this takes away the classic "gang tackling" concept that so many defenses preach. It's much harder to gang tackle when you're spread all across the field; isolating areas of the field is what spread offenses are looking for. Working on open field, individual tackling is of the utmost importance for defenses. The ability to break down in the open field, make good contact, and wrap-up as you bring down the offensive player is very important for a team's "2nd level" players (linebackers and lefensive backs).

One very simple part of being a good open field tackler is teaching the defender to have their head up, and eyes open right up to impact (Chris Spielman always refers to this as "see what you hit, and hit what you see"). This may sound simple, but you would be surprised how many players close their eyes right before contact. It's a natural human reaction to close your eyes before any contact, and football is no different, but you need to change that if you want players that are good open field tacklers.

Angles of pursuit are also critical. This is not just the game saving angles of pursuit; the intermediate angles of pursuit, and what to do when you get there (tackle and then strip), are also very important in stopping the spread offense. Players must always take a proper angle and be ready to deliver an open field blow.

3) Gap Responsibility and Pursuit Discipline
The great Denver Broncos teams of the late 90's gave defenses fits with their zone blocking scheme and the ability of Terrell Davis to cut back on over pursuing defenses. In 2008 you're seeing college and high school spread offense zone teams do the same thing to over-aggressive defenses who insist on flying over the top to get the zone hand-off, only to get burned by either the tailback cutting back against the pursuit, or the QB (who's now the best athlete on the team and one of the fastest) tucking it on the zone read and bootlegging the other way. The ability of a defense to be disciplined in gap responsibility and pursuit starts in practice. It needs to be worked on in individual, group, and team settings.

It all starts with confidence in the team that all 11 players believe in each other (i.e., if I do my job then the team will benefit). Don't confuse this with not being an aggressive defense; it just needs to be emphasized to defensive players that the pursuit angle (on any play run away from that player's position) should never pass the ball carriers "inside pocket" or armpit at that player's level. Once the play passes a player's level, they need to fly to the ball, because a cutback at that point is no longer a concern at that player's responsibility level. Now if the ball is coming "play side" (right at the defender), they still need to keep their outside arm free and never give away the corner, believing in teammates that pursue from the backside using the correct angles will be there soon to help out.

One of the best defenses that does all of the above has been South Florida, especially in their games against West Virginia the past two years. USF's defensive staff would be a great group to go visit and clinic with if you need to stop a West Virginia-style, run-dominant, spread offense. Hopefully Coach Tuberville has good contacts with Jim Leavitt in the wake of their 2007 game. Also, defensive coordinator Paul Rhoads, in his previous stint at Pitt, has a lot of experience with West Virginia's spread offense. Most notably, Rhoads' Panthers shut down the West Virginia offense in the regular season finale in 2007.

When watching the Auburn-West Virginia game on Thursday night, look to see if Auburn's defense is making open-field tackles and limiting the cutback plays from West Virginia's offense. These are two major keys if Auburn hopes to come away with a win.

Dave's Power 10

1. Texas (7-0) - Another convincing win over a good Big XII team. The Longhorns are walking the walk so far. Here's a funny stat: Texas scores the same amount of points/game as their defense allows in rushing yards (48.14).

2. Penn State (8-0) - Michigan played a good game early, but couldn't withstand the second half avalanche. For this reason, I place the Nittany Lions in front of Bama, and also due to the Tide's struggles at home against Ole Miss. PSU put away Michigan with 39 unanswered points.

3. Alabama (7-0) - I watched this game hoping for a Houston Nutt miracle, and it almost happened. The Tide couldn't put the Rebels away, but hung on to win. Bama's passing offense (103rd nationally) needs to somehow compliment their rushing offense (209 yds/game) in order to remain unbeaten. That's two consecutive nail-biters following the Georgia beat-down.

4. Southern California (5-1) - Everyone thought, "There's no way USC wins by 42 points! I'm taking Wazzu to cover." But when it was 41-0 at halftime, we understood the error of our ways. A slightly resurgent Arizona squad (#9 scoring offense, #6 passing defense) could provide some resistance this Saturday in Tucson.

5. Oklahoma State (7-0) - Last week's Baylor game was the first single digit performance for the Cowboy defense (aka the step-child unit of the team). Zac Robinson, Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant are the straws that stir OSU's drink, and they need to get plastered in order to beat Texas in Austin.

6. Oklahoma (6-1) - Sam Bradford (#4 nationally in total offense) out-dueled Todd Reesing (#7 nationally). The Sooner defense has given up 76 points the last two games. Well, at least they have the 4th best offense in the nation right now (544 yards/game) . . . because they're going to need it.

7. Florida (5-1) - The Gators thrive on field position due to their exceptional return man, Brandon James (21 yds/punt; 29 yds/kickoff). Add to that their ability to hold onto the ball (#3 nationally in turnover margin), and Florida puts tremendous pressure on opponents.

8. Texas Tech (7-0) - The Red Raiders were an amazing 10 of 12 on 3rd down against Texas A&M. That helps when your defense is so average (#51 nationally). Here comes the gauntlet that should either justify their style, or re-expose Tech as the perennial video game team.

9. Boise State (6-0) - The Broncos play in a weak conference against weak opponents. Yeah, yeah, we've heard all that before. But Boise dominates the WAC so well that they deserve recognition, especially when they've beaten a Pac-10 team on the road.

10. Utah (8-0) - The Utes are a product of a weak conference, and fortune (i.e., Michigan's transition to Rich Rodriguez's system). However, their days in the Power 10 may be numbered with upcoming games against TCU and BYU. Fortunately, both games are in the friendly (and non-alcoholic) confines of Salt Lake City.

This Weekend's Key Games

Auburn doesn't play this Saturday, but that doesn't mean there aren't some excellent college football games worth paying attention to.

Wake Forest (4-1) @ Maryland (4-2), 12pm Eastern

It's a noon kickoff in College Park (so, Jason, that means it's 9:00am in Berkeley). Maryland has been very Jekyll and Hyde this year (losing to Middle Tennessee, beating Cal, losing to Virginia). The Terps are strong at home. Wake has been relying too much on its defense to win games. If the Deacons can't generate more offense, then I like Maryland to pull the mild upset.

UMD 27

WFU 23

Purdue (2-4) @ Northwestern (5-1), 12pm Eastern

Northwestern fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last week against Michigan State. The Wildcats are still in the Big Ten race, however. Taking care of business against a struggling Purdue team is necessary in order to keep pace with Ohio State and Penn State. Purdue is playing for its bowl-eligible life.

NWU 36

PU 33

Texas Tech (6-0) @ Texas A&M (2-4), 12pm Eastern

Did you know that A&M has the #1 pass defense in the Big XII? That probably has to do with the fact that they haven't played: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, or Texas Tech. I don't think the Aggies have a prayer against the Red Raiders' offense.

TTU 41

TAM 20

Vanderbilt (5-1) @ Georgia (5-1), 12:30pm Eastern

It seems like a panic move to me, switching quarterbacks after 1 loss. But that's what Vanderbilt is going to do this Saturday. I think the rose is off the bloom for the Commodores, who will probably come crashing back down to earth. They'll still reach a bowl game, but only because Duke is still left on the schedule. That said, the game will stay close. Georgia isn't very explosive on offense right now.

UGA 24

VU 14

Ole Miss (3-3) @ Alabama (6-0), 3:30pm Eastern

Each of the last 3 meetings between these two teams has been settled by 3 points. Ole Miss has played well on the road this year, nearly upsetting Wake Forest and taking down Florida. The key question is whether Ole Miss can generate a running game against Alabama's defense. Expect another closely fought SEC game, but expect Alabama to improve to 7-0.

UAT 20

UM 12

Ohio State (6-1) @ Michigan State (6-1), 3:30pm Eastern

UPSET SPECIAL. I like the Spartans in this game for one reason: Javon Ringer. Michigan State will use Ringer to wear down the Buckeyes' defense and keep the ball away from Ohio State's offense. Ohio State might be looking ahead to next week's game vs. Penn State, too.

MSU 26

OSU 24

Kansas (5-1) @ Oklahoma (5-1), 3:30pm Eastern

Kansas' improbable 2007 run to the Orange Bowl was helpe by the fact that they did not play Texas or Oklahoma. If Kansas wants to return to a BCS bowl game this year, then they will have to do it by beating the top teams in their conference. The Jayhawks are catching Oklahoma at the wrong time - immediately after a loss to rival Texas. I think Oklahoma will come out firing. Kansas' defense is as good this year (torched by South Florida; torched early by Iowa State), either. That's not a good combination.

OU 41

KU 23

Michigan (2-4) @ Penn State (7-0), 4:30pm Eastern

Expect Michigan's 9-game winning streak in this series to come to an end. This could get ugly.

PSU 38

UM 10

Mississippi State (2-4) @ Tennessee (2-4), 7:00pm Eastern

First team to score wins. You think I'm kidding? Both teams have above average defenses. Both teams have galactically bad offenses. If you like punting, and if you like "field position games," then this matchup is for you.

MSU 3

UT -1

LSU (5-1) @ South Carolina (5-2), 8:00pm Eastern

Were you as surprised as me to see that Carolina is 5-2? How did that happen? Most experts think this will be a very close game. I guess they base that on LSU's ugly road loss at Florida. I happen to think the opposite. LSU is very very very mad. LSU is going to stuff USC's offense all night. I like LSU in a rout.

LSU 31

USC 13

Virginia Tech (5-1) @ Boston College (4-1), 8:00pm Eastern

Tech's defense will have their work cut out for them trying to stop Matt Ryan and the Eagles' offense. What's that, you say? Tech beat Ryan's Eagles last year. And Matt Ryan is gone. Oh, then why in the heck is BC a 3-point favorite in this game?

VPI 23

BC 17

Missouri (5-1) @ Texas (6-0), 8:00pm Eastern

Game of the Week. Conventional wisdom would say that because Texas is coming off a big win vs. Oklahoma, and because Missouri is coming off a stinging loss to Oklahoma State, that this game has the makings of a very close matchup. I don't think so. Texas hung 45 on the Sooners defense. Yikes. Missouri's defense isn't nearly that good. Chase Daniels and the Tigers have a fantastic offense, but they didn't exactly light it up against the Cowboys last week. Missouri can't keep pace for 60 minutes.

UT 37

UM 20

Just Stop It, Clemson. Stop It!

Really, Clemson? Are you serious? "Tiger Walk?" As if the similarities between Clemson and Auburn weren't already numerous, Clemson's interim football coach, Dabo Swinney, has decided to add one more. Clemson will start a new tradition this Saturday. Two hours before kickoff against Georgia Tech, Clemson players will walk through the parking lot on their way to the stadium. The event will be called "Tiger Walk." Man, that sounds familiar. Where have I heard of that?

Oh, yeah, AUBURN already has something called "Tiger Walk." It's been around since the 1960s. So, what possessed Coach Swinney to come up with such a ridiculous copycat idea? Maybe he just wants to emulate Auburn's program as much as possible. Things are definitely on the right track: (1) crappy quarterback play (Check! Yeah, I'm talking about you, Cullen Harper. Oh, crap, tell your dad to stop crying); (2) Three losses already, despite a preseason top-10 ranking (Check!); (3) fire a head coach named Bowden that never lived up to expectations (Check!).

For those who don't know, Swinney was a former wide receiver at Alabama from 1989-1992. Swinney also started his coaching career at Alabama. He was hired at Clemson in 2002 after the Tide cleaned house by firing Mike Dubose.

[As an aside, Swinney's real name is William Christopher. The nickname Dabo came from his older brother, who would say "Dabo" in an effort to call his baby brother "that boy." Ahhhh, Pelham, Alabama.]

[Interim] Coach Swinney, is "Tiger Walk" really going to fix the problems you have at Clemson? I doubt it. Why ruin the uniqueness of Clemson (i.e., touching Howard's Rock as you run onto the field) by copying the tradition of another school? Hopefully your successor will bag this idea and move on to more important things, like winning games.

Will Auburn's Spread Offense Deliver?

Tommy Tuberville has 81 victories in his 10+ seasons as the head coach at Auburn. He has 4 Western Division titles, 1 SEC Championship, and 5 bowl victories. He is arguably the 3rd best coach in Auburn history, and at 54 Tuberville has a great chance to surpass Pat Dye (99 wins, 4 SEC championships) for second place on the all-time wins list at Auburn (Shug Jordan's 176 wins are likely out of reach). However, as Shakespeare once wrote, "What's past is prologue." That means what has already happened merely sets the scene for the really important stuff, which is the stuff our greatness will be made on. At least that's what I take Antonio to mean in Shakespeare's "The Tempest."

For Tuberville, the prologue is that he has steered Auburn successfully through the turmoil of Terry Bowden's removal as coach in 1998. Tuberville has restored Auburn as a yearly contender for the conference championship and January bowl berths. He has run a clean program and stayed away from the illegal recruiting practices that ultimately ended Pat Dye's tenure as coach. He has shown that Auburn can win, and win consistently, in modern college football: a perfect 13-0 season in 2004. Perhaps most importantly, he has shown that Auburn can be the dominant program in the state: 6 straight wins over Alabama. Where does Tuberville go from here? What's past is prologue.

One thing, and one thing only, eludes Tommy Tuberville: a consensus national championship. Relatively speaking, it is the only rung left to climb on his career ladder. Everything he has accomplished at Auburn, the good seasons, the bad seasons, that perfect season, have created a coach that wants more than anything to build a national championship team. For a generation of Auburn fans, raised on the success of the 1980s, and who have enjoyed the teams of the current decade as adults, that national championship is also the last hurdle to clear. The desire for a national title, however, has only increased the pressure the fans bring to bear on Tuberville. The success of the past 10 seasons, while appreciated, is no longer good enough for many fans. Tuberville has raised the bar. He knows it, too. That is why Tuberville has taken the leap into the spread offense. Despite his preference for a more conservative brand of offensive football, he is willing to do what he thinks is necessary to bring a national championship to Auburn.

Tuberville is often referred to as the Riverboat Gambler. Maybe a magician is a better description. Michael Caine once described, in a movie, the elements of a magic trick: “Every great magic trick consists of three acts. The first act is called The Pledge: the magician shows you something ordinary, but of course, it probably isn’t. The second act is called The Turn. The magician makes his ordinary something do something extraordinary. Now, if you’re looking for the secret . . . you won’t find it. That’s why there’s a third act, called The Prestige. This is the part with the twists and turns, where lives hang in the balance, and you see something shocking you’ve never seen before.”

For Tuberville, a coach with a 25-20 record at Ole Miss, the pledge was the promise to return Auburn to its winning ways, compete for SEC championships, and ultimately bring a national championship to the Plains. The turn occurred in 2000, when Tuberville led Auburn to a surprise Western Division title. It has continued with an unprecedented run of success, including no fewer than 9 wins in each of the last 4 seasons, and 6 straight wins against Alabama. He has made the ordinary into the extraordinary. So why are Auburn fans so bitter, so cynical, after a 4-3 start in 2008? We're all waiting for the prestige. We want Tuberville to give us the final act. We want him to finally pull the rabbit out of the hat, make the woman he sawed in half whole again, reappear after making himself disappear. We want him to bring a national championship to Auburn. It is the shocking ending that none of us has seen before, but want so desperately to experience.

The spread is both the prestige of Tuberville's career and a magic trick in itself. It's a microcosm of Tuberville's career. He has endeavored to climb that final rung, and the spread offense is the means by which he intends to do it. Tuberville has made the pledge: recruit better athletes and use the spread to create an offense the equal of his vaunted defenses. The turn? Well, that hasn't happened yet. Therefore, the prestige is still off in the distance. But if Tuberville could deliver on his promise to restore Auburn among college football's elite programs, then we should not be so quick to doubt his ability to pull the rabbit out of the hat with the spread offense. What's past is prologue for Tuberville. Everything he has experienced, especially the 2004 season, has led him to this moment. He has staked his Auburn legacy on the spread offense.

Many fans have perhaps given up on the 2008 season. With 3 SEC losses, and a difficult remaining schedule, some Auburn fans can't bear to watch. But if you ignore the record, ignore the wins and the losses, and simply watch the games, you might see something special happen this October and November: the turn. Auburn has five opportunities to work on making the ordinary do something extraordinary. That's what I'll be looking for. Perhaps the 2008 season will become the prologue for greater success in 2009 and beyond.

The "Bubble Screen": The Spread's Outside Running Play

So, what is a bubble screen?

It's a pass thrown behind the line of scrimmage to a receiver or running back who's already in an extended formation. The term "bubble" refers to the pass catcher bubbling back away from the line of scrimmage to give the quarterback a better angle to throw to him. The goal is to have the receiver catch the ball in front of him, with his shoulders facing forward. At the same time, the receivers outside of him are blocking down the field.

Bubble screens are nothing new, even though it's become a fashionable buzz phrase. They're essentially glorified sweeps, so they're usually called in running situations. When are bubble screens most effective? They work best when the opposition is caught between sound run and pass schemes. When a defense puts eight players in the box against seven blockers -- five offensive linemen, a tight end and a fullback -- yet tries to keep two safeties back, it can be susceptible. The bubble screen is one of the components of the spread offense that really makes things hard on the defense, placing them between a rock and a hard place in trying to decide on perimeter support for the run (especially against the zone read or triple option), and how many players to commit to "the box," as outside linebackers and strong safeties need to cover receiver #2 (the inside twin receiver), taking them out of the box. A bubble screen is merely a passing play designed to act as an outside running play.

Another component of the bubble screen that has become even more interesting is when offenses fake or act out the bubble screen, making the perimeter defense freeze (if only for a split second), which may be the difference on an inside zone read run going to the house, or for a 6 yard gain as the box defenders are all covered by blockers and perimeter help cannot support the inside play.

Executing a successful bubble screen is easier said than done. Many coaches at clinics describe the bubble screen throw by the quarterback like turning a double play in baseball between the second basemen and shortstop. First, the quarterback has to catch the snap cleanly, then rotate his body correctly, whether to his throwing arm side or his backside. Usually some kind of zone fake hand-off precedes the throw, so a clean fake between the QB and running-back must occur (no dislodging the ball during the fake) if the case requires it.

The pitch and catch of the bubble screen requires a lot of work between the quarterback and receivers. The timing must be precise. The quarterback is usually throwing into a high traffic area. The receiver is also navigating through traffic which can cause a loss in concentration. The success of the bubble screen often depends on how much repetition can be done during the offseason.

Remember, a bubble screen (based on ball placement on the field, hash-marks, formation, etc..) could be thrown as short as 10 yards or as long as 25 yards. All of these distances need to practiced, over and over again.

Receivers need to be aware of the rules of a forward pass vs. a lateral on bubble screens. They should always assume the bubble screen is a lateral (thrown behind the line of scrimmage, this also allows for the release of O-linemen downfield, a big part of the bubble screen).

A well-executed bubble screen can pick up four or five yards, and sometimes much more.

"Hello, Computer."

We are less than a week away from the unveiling of the first BCS rankings. Last weekend's games provided a huge shakeup in the four computer polls that make public their numbers each week. Texas' victory over #1 Oklahoma, losses by Vanderbilt and Northwestern, Missouri's loss to Oklahoma State, and LSU's drubbing at the Swamp made for some interesting plot twists as we near the mid-point of the college football season.

Sagarin Ratings
1. Texas (6-0)
2. USC (4-1)
3. Penn State (7-0)
4. Alabama (6-0)
5. Oklahoma (5-1)
6. Florida (5-1)
7. Georgia (5-1)
8. Boise State (5-0)
9. Oklahoma State (6-0)
10. Ohio State (6-1)

Biggest surprise: 1-loss USC outpacing the Nittany Lions and Crimson Tide.
Biggest beef: BYU only 13th, and Ball State only 19th.

Billingsley Report
1. Texas (6-0)
2. Alabama (6-0)
3. USC (4-1)
4. Oklahoma (5-1)
5. Ohio State (6-1)
6. Penn State (7-0)
7. Georgia (5-1)
8. Florida (5-1)
9. BYU (6-0)
10. LSU (4-1)

Biggest surprise: LSU still in the top 10, and only 2 spots behind Florida, after that beatdown.
Biggest beef: Texas Tech comes in at #23.

Massey Ratings
1. Texas (6-0)
2. Alabama (6-0)
3. Utah (7-0)
4. USC (4-1)
5. Oklahoma State (6-0)
6. Virginia Tech (5-1)
7. North Carolina (5-1)
8. Texas Tech (6-0)
9. Boise State (5-0)
10. Penn State (7-0)

Biggest surprise: Most of the top 10, actually. This is by far the strangest of the 4 models.
Biggest beef: BYU is 26th, and is 8 spots behind 3-2 Duke. Really? LSU drops to 37th

Colley Matrix
1. Texas (6-0)
2. Alabama (6-0)
3. Penn State (7-0)
4. Utah (6-0)
5. Oklahoma State (6-0)
6. Michigan State (6-1)
7. Boise State (6-0)
8. Ohio State (6-1)
9. USC (4-1)
10. Ball State (7-0)

Biggest surprise: The 6-1 Spartans at #6. They host Ohio State this Saturday.
Biggest beef: Oklahoma drops a long way to #13; still ahead of #19 BYU, however. Didn't USC beat Ohio State? I remember reading that somewhere.


All signs point toward a Texas-Alabama 1-2 ranking next weekend when the first BCS numbers are released, assuming Texas defeats Missouri and Alabama defeats Ole Miss. For Auburn fans, that's great news, sort of. You see, never, in the history of the BCS, have the teams ranked in the top two spots upon the release of the first BCS poll of the season both reached the national championship game in January. The odds of a Texas-Alabama matchup in Miami are slim. Whether it's Texas or Alabama who will fall from the top spots is anyone's guess.

Dave's Power 10

1. Texas - I agree with the pollsters on this one. UT beat the previously-thought superior Sooners by simply outscoring them, and Muchamp's defense thwarted Sam Bradford just enough to win. BTW, I don't miss Will Muchamp at all, thanks to Paul Rhoads. Despite the loss, he's managed to keep the Auburn defense respectable.

2. Penn State - The Nittany Lions deserve this ranking. They've not only won games, they've dominated their opponents. PSU ranks first in the Big Ten in rushing yards (235 yds/game) and total defense (259 yds/game). It's amazing what good coaching will allow. After hosting Michigan, they travel to the Horseshoe to face Ohio State to possibly determine the Big Ten championship.

3. Alabama - After an off-week, the Tide returns to face a familiar foe: Houston Nutt. I hope he frustrates the living hell out of Bama and orchestrates another huge SEC road upset. Did anyone imagine that Bama would be the last remaining undefeated SEC team?

4. Texas Tech - The Red Raiders get a yawner vs. Texas A&M this week, but then the waters get REALLY rough (@ Kansas, Texas, Okla. St., @ Oklahoma). With an average defense (#64 nationally), it'll be tough to simply outscore everyone.

5. Oklahoma State - Great win at Mizzou last week. Zac Robinson is 3rd nationally in passing efficiency, and RB Kendall Hunter averages 143 yds/game, also 3rd nationally. In the Cowboys first true hostile environment (Wash St. was at neutral Qwest Field), they looked impressive.

6. USC - Despite the hiccup in Corvallis, the Trojans are still a dominant team. Against Arizona State the defense picked off 3 passes (neutralizing 3 Sanchez INTs) and smothered a second straight conference opponent. If they continue this type of performance, USC will be in line again for the BCS title game. Stop me if you've heard THAT before.

7. Florida - In a 3-Act performance, the Gators dominated, allowed LSU to creep back, then slammed their foot on the Tigers' throats with 51 points. I can't remember a non-DiNardo-led LSU team allowing that many points. Of course when has Urban Meyer ever let up? There was definitely a car wreck on Gainesville, but it's LSU who's looking for a rental.

8. Oklahoma - It might be unfair to drop them this far, but there are other undefeated teams playing good football right now. Besides, as the Big-12 lays waste to itself, the Sooners have a chance to move right back up. The OU defense will need some work in order to withstand all those high-octane offenses, though.

9. Brigham Young - If BYU plays a conference game and noone's there to watch, does it make a sound? Another ho-hum game against New Mexico nets a victory. But keep an eye out for this Thursday night's game versus TCU. If the Cougars hold true to form (no turnovers, no sacks allowed), they should handle the Horned Frogs.

10. Utah - Nothing really pops out about this team, other than a better-than-average defense (#7 scoring, #8 rushing). Given their favorable schedule, it appears that the season finale against BYU in Salt Lake City will determine who goes to the Fiesta Bowl.

The Zone Read - The Spread's "Bread and Butter"

This is part 1 of a series designed to help fans better understand the spread option offense.

The spread offense begins with a no-huddle approach with the quarterback in the shotgun formation much of the time. The fundamental nature of the spread offense involves spreading the field horizontally using 3, 4, and even 5-receiver sets (some implementations of the spread also feature wide splits between the offensive linemen). The object of the spread offense is to open up multiple vertical seams for both the running and passing game to exploit, as the defense is forced to spread itself thin across the field (a "horizontal stretch") to cover everyone.
There are many forms of the spread system. One of the extremes is the pass-oriented version typified by Texas Tech, North Texas, Missouri and New Mexico State. This version employs multiple spread sets and is heavily reliant on the quarterback and coaches being able to call the appropriate play at the line of scrimmage based on how the defense sets up.

The other extreme version is the Spread Option used by West Virginia and Michigan, Oregon, and Appalachian State. Despite the multi-receiver sets, the spread option is a run-first scheme which requires a quarterback that is comfortable carrying the ball, a mobile offensive line that can pull and trap effectively, and receivers that can hold their blocks. The essence of the spread option is misdirection. Effectively, this is the old triple option except that it utilizes spread sets. In particular, the quarterback must be able to read the defensive end and determine whether he is collapsing down the line or playing upfield contain.

A third, rare version of the spread offense is the Pistol Offense which is used by Nevada and some high schools across the nation. The Pistol Offense focuses on using the run with various offensive players, and calls for the quarterback to line up about three yards behind the center and take a short shotgun snap at the start of each play.

The first entry breaks down the "zone read," the most important running play in the spread option offense.

The zone read is considered by most spread offense coaches as the "bread and butter" run play of this offensive system. It's comparable to the buck sweep in the "Wing T"or the ISO in the "I formation."Lets breakdown two important areas of the zone read that make it so effective:

1) The Quarterback "cancelling out" the backside (DE or OLB) line of scrimmage threat
2) Counting the 'numbers' in the box and favoring blocking angles

1. A key component of the shot-gun spread offense is the ability of the quarterback to "cancel out" the backside Defensive End (DE) at the mesh point with the Running Back.

At the critical point where the quarterback has to decide whether to keep the ball or hand it off (the mesh point), the defensive end (or possibly an outside linebacker) responsible for backside contain has to make one of two decisions.

Decision #1 is to crash or knife down the line of scrimmage for the running back

Decision #2 is to "stay home" and box out the quarterback for a potential keep.

If the QB reads decision 1, he keeps it for a backside bootleg run or triple option pitch progression. If the QB reads decision 2, the QB hands it off to the running back (and fakes the bootleg run), thus "cancelling out" or blocking in effect the backside end.

2. One thing the zone read allows is the offense to dictate "numbers" and "angles" during the pre-snap period. This is why 90% of spread offense teams go with a no-huddle. It makes the defense show their hand in regards to alignment, allowing the offense to change the play based on "lucky or ringo," "rip or liz" . . . coaches and player lingo for go 'right or left' with the play.

If the defensive alignment shows more defender to the left (using the centers crotch as the mid-line) in the box, then the call at the line would be "ringo," meaning we're zoning right, thus the QB will be reading the left defensive end on the zone read.

This number is usually a 4 vs. 3 defenders scenario that determines the call. If the numbers are even (say 4 left and 4 right), a lot of coaches teach their quarterback to read the defensive front alignment, looking to run to the "1 technique" tackle side as opposed to the "3 technique" tackle side, looking for better zone blocking angles.

If you don't want to take that path with your quarterback, you can also pick the side in an even defensive alignment scenario based on your team's preference, wide side of the field, or player strength (or a defenders weak side), or audible to the bubble screen if appropriate.

Mastering these two areas of the shot-gun zone read can really go a long way in producing some serious offensive production.

Arkansas @ Auburn

Arkansas will be playing their fourth straight game against a top-20 team this Saturday when they visit Auburn. Arkansas hopes to avoid going 0-4 in that streatch of games, after losing to Alabama, Texas, and Florida. This game marks the first visit by Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino since his one season as Auburn's offensive coordinator in 2002. Petrino's '02 offense averaged 29.8 points per game (and crossed the 50-point total twice), and included budding stars like Jason Campbell, Carnell Williams, Ronnie Brown, Courtney Taylor, and Anthony Mix. Those numbers are a far cry from this season's Auburn offense.

When Arkansas has the ball:

Petrino's offense is not as pass-happy as many experts would lead you to believe. Petrino has always favored a strong balance of run and pass. Petrino has also had some very good running backs in his offenses, including the aformentioned Williams and Brown, and also Michael Bush and Eric Shelton at Louisville. Petrino's featured back at Arkansas is Michael Smith. Smith rushed for 133 yards and a score last week against Florida. Smith will also be used in the passing game. He's caught 18 passes through the first five games.

Petrino's quarterback is Casey Dick. You might remember Dick as the middle-man between the center and Darren McFadden last year. Dick's job was to take the snap, get the ball to McFadden (or #2 running back Felix Jones), and get out of the way. Such is the life of a quarterback for Houston Nutt. For the first time in his career, Dick is being asked to burden a heavy load in the passing game. It's not surprising that Dick has struggled. Dick's struggles, however, are not entirely of his making. The Arkansas offensive line has not been able to keep Dick off the ground. Dick has been sacked 18 times this year, and 10 times in the last two games alone.

The underlying philosophy of Petrino's offense is this: attack the weakness of the defense with the same play, but disguise the play through the use of multiple formations. If Auburn's recent losses to LSU and Vanderbilt are any indication, Arkansas will look to attack the soft spots of Auburn's zone secondary, and use misdirection to catch Auburn overpursuing against the run. Petrino will attempt to confuse the defense with multiple formations, hoping to catch the Tigers worrying too much about the formation, rather than the weakness Petrino is seeking to exploit. Vanderbilt consistently caught Auburn overpursuing the run, and the Commodores were able to gain yards when Auburn had no back-side contain. The soft spot in a two-deep zone defense is called the "honey hole." It's the gap between the cornerback and the safety, along the sideline. Arkansas might look to find receivers in that gap, and when the safety moves up to close the hole, Arkansas will attempt to use double-moves and go for the homerun. It will be up to Casey Dick to make accurate throws against an Auburn defense that is sure to use pressure and blitzes to thwart the passing game.

When Auburn has the ball:

Man, does anyone really know? If Tuberville has told the offensive coaches anything this week, it's this: just get me to 20 points. With Auburn's staunch defense, 20 points should be enough to win this game. Much is made of Tuberville's incredible record when Auburn scores 30 or more points (36-0 since 2001). But the success rate is almost as high when Auburn scores merely 20 or more points (57-7 since 2001). The difference is stark when Auburn fails to reach 20 points. Auburn is just 13-18 since 2001 when scoring less than 20 points (and 2 of those wins were this year, 3-2 vs. MSU, and 14-12 vs. Tenn.).

Given Arkansas' troubles against the run, Auburn will certainly look to focus on the ground game. Whether it will take the form of the spread-option's zone read running play, or the under-center power formations used early on against Vanderbilt, is anyone's guess. If Auburn wants to make the spread work, then the quarterback needs to be Kodi Burns. Burns' threat as a runner keeps the defense honest, not allowing them to focus solely on running back Ben Tate.

Auburn needs to stay balanced, and therefore the passing game will need to step up against Arkansas. If Burns does play significant minutes, look for the throws to be short and safe; quick slants, bubble screens, out-routes. Auburn should avoid having Burns throw into traffic over the middle. He is still developing his accuracy, and given the fragile psyche of the offense, turnovers are to be avoided at all costs.

Prediction:

Auburn 24

Arkansas 14

Ensminger To Call Plays

ESPN.com's Chris Low discusses Steve Ensminger's second chance at calling plays for the Auburn offense.

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/sec/0-1-577/Ensminger-gets-another-shot-at-Auburn.html

Around the Web . . .

SI.com's Stewart Mandel offers his take on Auburn's struggling offense:

It shouldn't be entirely surprising that Auburn would struggle in its transition to the spread. Most teams do. Look at Michigan. Look at Florida in Urban Meyer's first season. Missouri's spread is a machine now, but that first season Gary Pinkel made the change was pretty rough. (Chase Daniel took over the next season.) But I never imagined Auburn would struggle this bad, in large part because the Tigers did surprisingly well in the Chick-fil-A Bowl with just three weeks of practice. In hindsight, maybe I should have put more stock in the fact they were playing Clemson.

I don't buy that Franklin "doesn't understand SEC defenses." He may have come most recently from Troy, but he did spend four years at Kentucky. I do think it's been clear since the spring that he's not particularly confident in either of his quarterbacks. It's fair to assume that Kodi Burns would be a more natural fit due to his running ability. He must be light years behind in the passing game for Franklin to stick with Todd when he's been so unproductive and appears to be injured.

I know many are calling for Tommy Tuberville to simply scrap the thing and go back to the I-formation, as he did early in the Vanderbilt game. That reeks of desperation to me. He obviously implemented the scheme with long-term success in mind and there's no reason to think the Tigers can't eventually get there. In the meantime, however, if they want to avoid a disastrous '08 campaign, the coaches need to find some sort of middle-ground solution, whether it means making more use of Burns, mixing in more power running, simplifying the playbook, etc.


The Auburn Plainsman's Sports Editor Alex Scarborough-Anderson gives his two cents:

News came out of Sunday’s scheduled press conference — Tony Franklin is still the offensive coordinator.
Who would have thought two months ago that Tuberville would have to say that? Nonetheless it was news. The Plainsman isn’t the only one reporting this. Check Rivals or the O-A News.
The offense is struggling. There is little doubt about that.
Is it Franklin’s fault?
Well that’s where it gets sticky.
People want heads on pikes.
Auburn hadn’t lost to Vanderbilt in 13 consecutive tries. The Tigers came out well on offense; funny thing was, it wasn’t Franklin’s offense.
Earlier in the week, Tommy Tuberville said the Tigers weren’t running the “spread offense” but instead the “Auburn offense.”
What exactly does that mean?
Well apparently it goes something like this — do everything that has worked for Auburn over the last decade to jump out to a 13-0 lead and then stop, slam on the clutch, shift gears and go with the spread.
It’s as if Tuberville said “I’ve got the first quarter and then the rest is yours Tony.”
The first two touchdowns were a thing of beauty.
Line up and run the ball down their throat and finish them off with solid passing. It was Running Back University all over again.
It was what we know.
What we don’t know is the spread. Yet.
The spread offense doesn’t have a toe tag on it, but many are ready to call a time of death.
Fans keep hearing “give it time,” but patience isn’t a virtue many Auburn fans possess.
Dreams of an explosive offense conjured up in the off-season were soon turned into nightmares of the old “three yards and a cloud of dust” offense of old.
What’s worse for Tuberville and Franklin is how far the offense has regressed.
Take out play calling quandries and you’re left with dropped passes, penalties and missed field goals.
Even when plays are executed correctly, the offense can’t seem to point the barrel of the gun away from their foot.
The Tigers have committed 352 yards in penalties this year — that’s 106 yards more than opponents have handed Auburn.
It’s an offense with issues.
The prescription?
Your guess is as good as mine.
My antidote: a good nights rest followed by a hot pot of coffee and a serious discussion about where the offense is headed.
Maybe that and a few Prozac.


Mark Murphy of InsidetheAuburnTigers.com chronicles Tuberville's reasoning behind the Franklin firing:

http://auburn.scout.com/2/799042.html


Former Hoover High coach Rush Propst says Auburn's coaches never truly bought into the spread offense:

http://www.al.com/auburnfootball/birminghamnews/index.ssf?/base/sports/1223540122228880.xml&coll=2


ESPN.com's Pat Forde says that SEC defenses are the entire reason why so many SEC teams are struggling offensively:

SEC: Pointless
The Southern spin on low-scoring SEC football has been that it's attributable to all those fast, ferocious defensive players in the league. That's only a partial explanation, failing to fully cover the fact that more than half the conference ranks in the bottom 50 nationally in total offense.

The following are not attributable to great SEC defense:
Tennessee's 13 points against Northern Illinois. Auburn's 27 points against a Southern Mississippi team that subsequently gave up more to Marshall and UTEP, respectively. Arkansas' zero first-quarter points on the season -- including against Western Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe. Mississippi State's 14 against Louisiana Tech and seven against Georgia Tech. South Carolina's 23 points against a Wofford team giving up an average of 27 points per game to FCS competition.

Fact is, it has been a bumpy season for the following five SEC playcallers:

Things seemed so promising for Tony Franklin and the spread offense. Then the season started.Tony Franklin, Auburn. He might have been the most-hyped offensive coordinator hire of the year, but the hype has dissolved into gripes. The Tigers are 104th nationally in total offense and averaging just 18.7 ppg, which if it holds would be their lowest scoring output in 10 years. They've scored just five offensive touchdowns in four SEC games, as the no-huddle spread offense that made a cult hero of Franklin has ground to a halt. Franklin has shouldered the blame -- but his job will be in jeopardy if there isn't a second-half turnaround.

Dave Clawson, Tennessee. The Volunteers are riding a three-game streak of offensive ineptitude that has produced 31 points -- their lowest three-game total in 14 years. If their 18 ppg average doesn't improve, it would be the lowest in 34 years. Clawson was the former head coach at high-scoring Richmond, but he might be headed back to the FCS level if Tennessee continues to flail offensively. Amazing how ordinary the Vols' offense has looked over the years when not coordinated by David Cutcliffe.

Bobby Petrino, Arkansas. Brother Paul Petrino has the offensive coordinator title, but Bobby has always maintained control of the script and the play-to-play strategy. The shocking thing is the first-quarter bagel for a guy whose game-opening scripts were almost unstoppable in his high-scoring days at Louisville. Biggest problem is the No. 107 national ranking in rushing.

Team Spurrier, South Carolina. Steve Sr. said before the season that he was turning over the play-calling duties to Steve Jr. Then we saw that the Head Ball Coach would sooner trade in his visor for a bowler than trade in total control of his offense -- even to kin. So he gradually took back the play sheet in the first few weeks. Regardless of who has been dialing up the calls, South Carolina in Year 4 under Spurrier still looks more like a Lou Holtz operation than the expected offensive powerhouse.

Woody McCorvey, Mississippi State. Head coach Sylvester Croom has resolutely -- at times defiantly -- stuck by McCorvey through years of fan criticism. Now, with the league's lowest-scoring offense and no victories against FBS competition, Croom's clout with first-year athletic director Greg Byrne could be tested if Croom wants to retain McCorvey for a sixth season. State hasn't had a single 40-point game since 2002, by far the longest streak in the league.

By The Numbers

Oh, what's that you say? There's an Auburn game this Saturday? The season isn't over? Perfect opponent at the perfect time for Auburn: Arkansas. C'mon, folks, let's get our "glass half full" on. A conference game, at home, against a bad team, that's not televised on the ESPN family of networks. Things have become so crazy lately with the Vandy loss and the Franklin firing that fans have forgotten this is "Bobby Petrino revenge week." You remember Petrino, right? The guy waiting on the tarmac for that Air Lowder jet in 2003. Here's a look at the relevant stats for Auburn and Arkansas:

Total Offense:
ARK - #73 (352.2 yds/game)
AUB - #104 (309.1 yds/game)

Rush Offense:
AUB - #60 (128.5 yds/game)
ARK - #107 (100.6 yds/game)

Pass Offense:
ARK - #33 (251.6 yds/game)
AUB - #103 (160.7 yds/game)

[Just as an aside, Alabama is ranked #104 and Ohio State is ranked #105]

Scoring Offense:
AUB - #103 (18.6 pts/game)
ARK - #109 (17.4 pts/game)

Now that we've gotten that ugliness out of the way, here are the defensive stats. Man, if you didnt' think Auburn's defense was carrying the team this year, wait until you see these stats.

Total Defense:
AUB - #7 (248.8 yds/game)
ARK - #87 (388.0 yds/game)

Rush Defense:
AUB - #14 (94.5 yds/game)
ARK - #107 (208.4 yds/game)

Pass Defense:
AUB - #13 (154.3 yds/game)
ARK - #32 (179.6 yds/game)

Scoring Defense:
AUB - #2 (11.2 pts/game)
ARK - #112 (38.0 pts/game)

Seriously, this is fantastic news for a struggling Auburn offense. The Razorbacks are allowing OVER 200 yards rushing per game and 38 points per game. Alabama dropped 40+, and Texas dropped 50+, on the Hogs' defense. If Auburn is going to pick up some momentum for the 2nd half of the season, THIS is the game to do it. They need a boost of confidence before playing West Virginia, Ole Miss, Georiga and Alabama (I do not think they need a boost to play Tennessee-Martin, however). When you dig deeper into the numbers there are some interesting trends Auburn must reverse in order to have a successful October and November. The first area is 3rd down.

As everyone knows, 3rd down is perhaps the most critical down in football. If you can't convert on 3rd down, or stop the other team from converting, odds are you won't have a very good team. While Auburn is fantastic at stopping opponents on 3rd down (#1 in the nation - opponents convert just 18.3% of the time), the offense is just about the worst team in the country at picking up the needed yards on 3rd down (#112 - converting only 29.7% of the time). Auburn's offense has a great chance to improve on 3rd down, because Arkansas is only 95th at stopping teams on 3rd down (44.1%). Conversely, the Auburn defense should continue to dominate, because the Hogs' offense is just 72nd in the country on 3rd down (37.9%).

A big reason for Auburn's failure on 3rd down: the passing game has not come up with the big plays to move the chains. Auburn QBs have completed 64.8% of their passes on 1st down, and completed 52.9% of their passes on 2nd down. But the number drops to 45.7% on 3rd down. Yikes. Auburn has attempted 46 passes on 3rd down this year, and they have picked up just 14 1st downs through the air. That's not good enough.

Let's not blame everything on the passing game, though. The running game has struggled, too, and nowhere is running the football more important than the "red zone" and the 4th quarter. This becomes obvious when you separate Auburn's rushing stats by quarter. In the 1st quarter, Auburn has gained 251 yards (4.25 yds/rush). In the 2nd quarter, 230 yards (3.9 yds/rush). Auburn has 240 yards (3.69 yds/rush) in the 3rd quarter. The 4th quarter, however, is remarkably lower. Traditionally, Auburn's offensive line has punished the opponent into submission, allowing for huge gains that finish off games. Not this year. In the 4th quarter Auburn has rushed for only 170 yards (despite having more rushing attempts than any other quarter) and a paltry 2.54 yards per rush average.

The rushing offense suffers a precipitous decline in yards per attempt in the red zone, too. From Auburn's 1-20 yard line, the Tigers average 3.51 yds/carry. The average is 4.46 yds/carry from Auburn's 21-30 yard line. From the Auburn 40 to the opponent 40, it's 3.05 yds/carry. From the opponent's 39-21 yard line, Auburn averages 4.24 yds/carry. The red zone, however, is a different story. Inside the opponent's 20 yard line, Auburn averages just 2.15 yds/carry. This, more than any other reason, is why Auburn is #111 in red zone offense. Twenty drives into the opponents red zone have yielded 9 TD, 4 FG, and 7 drives with zero points. Another reason this weekend's game is a chance to do something about the crappy red zone offense: Arkansas is 107th in red zone defense. The Hogs have given up 16 scores in 17 opponent trips into their red zone (and 13 were TD). Pair that with Arkansas' porous rush defense, and Auburn should be able to run the ball in for touchdowns this Saturday.

The other areas in which Auburn must improve are penalties and turnovers. Nothing pisses me off more than penalties and turnovers, and I've been pissed off a lot this season. Auburn is 101st in the country, averaging 7.83 penalties/game (for an average of 58.6 yards). Contrast that to Auburn in 2007 (6.2 penalties/game) and 2006 (5.5 penalties/game). Yeah, I don't like where that's headed, either. Arkansas isn't much better. The Hogs are 66th in the country, averaging 6.4 penalties/game (for 42.4 yards). Expect a lot of yellow hankies this Saturday.

[This is a home game, but I would like to point out that Auburn has played 2 road games, committing 12 penalties at Miss. State, and 11 penalties at Vanderbilt. Folks, those were the two easiest road games Auburn will have this year, and they came unglued in both. That doesn't bode well for trips to West Virginia, Ole Miss and Alabama, where the environment will be much more hostile.]

Turnovers have continued to plague Auburn, too. Auburn is 85th in the country with a -3 turnover margin (9 takeaways, 12 giveaways). Arkansas is 114th with only 3 takeaways and 11 giveaways (-11 turnover margin). Compare that to unbeaten Vanderbilt, who continues to make their living on turnovers (i.e., they don't turn it over, but they force opponents to cough up the ball). The Commodores have a +9 turnover differential.

So, there you have it. Auburn has some things to work on. I'll have more on the Arkansas-Auburn game tomorrow. Also, I'll have my "upset of the week" and predictions for this weekend's other games.

Not So Fast, My Friends

According to ESPN.com's Chris Low, Auburn is keeping the spread offense. Maybe I was wrong about Tubs and the spread after all. This story just keeps getting weirder by the minute. If it has nothing to do with the underlying system, then we have the makings of a personality clash between Franklin and Tuberville. Or perhaps between Franklin and the other offensive assistants, all of whom were coaching for Auburn prior to Franklin's arrival.

Call me a cynic, but I don't think a new play-caller is going to fix this mess. Of course, it couldn't hurt, either. A wise man once said, "players, not plays." What does that mean? It means that players win games, not schemes, formations, personnel packages, or trickeration. Auburn is struggling on offense because they don't have the PLAYERS to run the spread, not because they aren't running the right plays at the right time. Play-calling isn't going to change things. Recruiting is the ultimate answer. Tuberville knew it would take time to get the right players to run the spread. Maybe he bought into Franklin's guru status too much, because he seems to have forgotten that a transition period would be needed. Auburn will have to use some damage control in order to keep the 2009 recruiting class in order. Other SEC schools, and Alabama in particular, will certainly try to capitalize on Franklin's firing.

Also, you can probably waive goodbye to the Chris Todd era. Todd was "Franklin's guy," and his installation as the #1 quarterback always seemed forced, as if Franklin and Todd were a package deal. Will Todd go down as one of the lamest quarterbacks of the last 40 years of Auburn football? Probably. He's right up there with Daniel Cobb and Gabe Gross.

As I mentioned yesterday, when you run the spread, you need a quarterback that can be "The Man." The player most people think can be "The Man" for Auburn is Ray Cotton. The recent struggles on offense, and Franklin's firing, have put Cotton's commitment to Auburn in doubt. According to this article, Cotton is still locked in for Auburn: http://www.oanow.com/oan/sports/college/article/auburn_quarterback_commitment_not_backing_off/40256/

End of an Error?

It never looked right, did it? Always in the shotgun. Four and five wide receivers. An offensive line that rarely imposed its physical will. In short, it wasn't Auburn football. Auburn is a place for hard-nosed football and physical toughness. It's not a place where basketball on grass should be played. It's not a place where the offense lines up against its opponent only to stand up again like a pack of meerkats wondering what to do. In short, Auburn is no place for the spread offense.



I have nothing against the spread offense. I enjoy watching other teams that run the spread (Missouri and Kansas immediately come to mind). However, I never enjoyed watching Auburn run the spread. From the day Tony Franklin was hired, Auburn attempted an extreme makeover that required an immense amount of faith and patience from fans. Sure, the surprise-factor was enough to squeak out a bowl win against Clemson. But after a full spring and summer working on the new offense, Auburn came up empty in the two biggest games of the season thus far. The spread was designed to score more points and take pressure off of the defense. In reality, the defense was forced to work that much harder. To its credit, Paul Rhodes' crew has played admirably, and should be entirely credited with the team's wins against Mississippi State and Tennessee.





Auburn is a place for big running backs, bruising offensive linemen, athletic tight-ends, and gutsy quarterbacks. With the exception of Ben Tate, the 2008 Tigers have none of these characteristics. Would Auburn have eventually turned the corner and made the spread a dangerous high-powered offense? We will never know. Auburn will almost certainly return to a traditional offense based on power running, play-action passing, and time of possession.

When Tommy Tuberville decided to make the switch to the spread offense and hire Franklin, he was mostly praised for thinking outside the box and keeping with the changing times in order to keep the Auburn program on top. The problem is this: the spread is ALL about the quarterback. Think about the elite teams that run the spread. The most recognizable player on that team is the quarterback. Pat White of West Virginia. Chase Daniel of Missouri. Sam Bradford of Oklahoma. Chris Todd and Kodi Burns are not ready to be the focus of a major college offense. Why does that matter? Because Auburn is almost NEVER about the quarterback (the notable exception being Pat Sullivan). Auburn has always looked to a running back to put the team on his broad shoulders and be the face of the program: Joe Cribbs, James Brooks, Bo Jackson, Brent Fullwood, Stacey Danley, James Bostic, Stephen Davis, Rudi Johnson, Carnell Williams, Ronnie Brown, and Kenny Irons. Whether it was the wishbone, the flexbone, the power "I," whatever the hell Terry Bowden ran, etc., it's about the running back. That's the Auburn way, "our way." The quarterback manages the game, maintains order in the huddle, oozes leadership, and makes a clutch throw here and there. Admit it, you have so much more respect for Brandon Cox now that he's gone.





Does Auburn have someone that can carry the team for the remainder of the season? Yes, they do. Ben Tate. It's time for the offensive line to get their "pissed off" back and run some people over for Ben Tate. Auburn may struggle to win games the final two months of the season, but aren't you looking forward to see what Auburn can accomplish when they do it "our way?" Kodi Burns may one day become the type of quarterback that can lead Auburn to a championship. Burns should do it, however, running an Auburn offense.

Um, Wow. Just, Wow.

Tommy Tuberville fired offensive coordinator Tony Franklin today. Tuberville has not announced who will be calling the plays during this Saturday's game against Arkansas. Tuberville did state that he would be taking a larger role in the offensive game planning, however.

I guess that confirms my hypothesis that Tubs hated the spread offense. I thought he'd wait until the end of the season to pull the plug. Guess not. So, the only men on the coaching staff with experience as an offensive coordinator? That would be offensive line coach Hugh Nall and tight ends coach Steve Ensminger, who were the co-coordinators during the ill-fated 2003 season. If you remember, Tuberville asked Nall/Ensminger to keep the system implemented by Bobby Petrino during the 2002 season. The results were less than spectacular, and Nall returned to coaching the offensive line for the 2004 season. Ensminger, who called the plays on gameday, was the quarterbacks coach at the time, but was moved to tight ends upon Franklin's arrival (even though there are no tight ends in the spread). I don't expect to see Nall/Ensminger 2.0.

Hey, what's Al Borges doing these days?

Excuse me while I go step outside and let out a giant "WTF!"

Weird Science

Another crazy week in college football means we're one step closer to the first BCS rankings. Last week I touched on the strangeness of having teams like Northwestern and Vanderbilt appear near the top of the rankings for a couple of the computer models that comprise the BCS. Well, thanks to Tony Franklin (and a bye week for Northwestern) we can continue the insanity. For example, Wes Colley and Kenneth Massey are giving us a preview for who they think will be participating in this year's SEC Championship game. We can also add a new crazy team to the list: Ball State. The Cardinals are 6-0, but have no standout wins. They did, however, beat Navy and Indiana. Their toughest remaining games are Western Michigan (5-1) and Central Michigan (3-2). Ball State could be 13-0 after the MAC Championship game . . . and still end up in the Motor City Bowl. Here are the computer rankings through the Oct. 4 games for four of the six computer rankings that comprise a portion of the BCS rankings.

Colley Matrix

1. Alabama

2. Vanderbilt

3. Missouri

4. Texas

5. Utah

6. Oklahoma

7. Penn State

8. Northwestern

9. Ball State

10. Virginia Tech

Surprises: Well, Vandy, Northwestern, and Ball State, for starters.

No respect: BYU is 25th.

Richard Billingsley

1. Alabama

2. Oklahoma

3. LSU

4. USC

5. Texas

6. Missouri

7. Ohio State

8. Georgia

9. Utah

10. BYU

Surprises: How about USC at #4, despite its loss to Oregon State?

No respect: Vanderbilt at #23, Texas Tech at #28, Ball State at #41, and Northwestern at #52.

Massey Ratings

1. Vanderbilt

2. Alabama

3. Missouri

4. Utah

5. Oklahoma

6. Northwestern

7. Penn State

8. Texas

9. Virginia Tech

10. Georgia Tech

Surprises: Uh, Vandy in the top spot. Massey apparently likes their win over Auburn more than Bama's win at Georgia. Imagine where Ga. Tech would be had they held on at Va. Tech.

No respect: LSU at #22 (hey, they beat Auburn, too).

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

1. USC

2. Oklahoma

3. Alabama

4. Penn State

5. Texas

6. Missouri

7. Florida

8. Georgia

9. Boise State

10. Texas Tech

Surprises: Where do we begin? How about at the top, where USC is still #1.

No respect: 5-1 Michigan State at #26, one spot BEHIND 2-3 Oregon State.

Dave's Power 10

1. Oklahoma - Apparently this is the offense Auburn coaches wanted to emulate when they switched to the spread. Too bad you can't buy it for $3,000 out of a car trunk. That's the shopper's mentality in Auburn these days.

2. Missouri - Another spread offense that works. Who knew? Chase Daniel is playing lights out . . . so far. Against middling defenses, Mizzou merely out-scores their way to a win, but the next two opponents can light up the scoreboard AND play defense.

3. Alabama - Jury's still out on the Tide. Kentucky hung in to the end, but a defensive TD made the difference. Bama runs the ball effectively (14th nationally), but passing is still a struggle (104th nationally). Defense wins championships, but everyone plays defense in the SEC.

4. LSU - A 5-week gauntlet begins with Florida in Gainesville, and finishes with Bama in Baton Rouge. If the Bayou Bengals come out unscathed, they'll have earned it. They need to avoid costly TO's in order to do it, though.

5. Penn State - In old-school Nittany Lion fashion, they've manhandled opponents so far (#1 in the Big Ten in every major defensive category). The next three games will determine whether they're for real or not. PSU is the Big Ten's lone hope for a national title.

6. Texas - Have the Longhorns played anybody? No. Will they? Oh, yes. Five of the next six opponents are ranked in the top-17. Good luck with all that.

7. BYU - The Cougars control their own destiny in regards to the BCS. Not only do they score points (41.2 pts/game), but they keep QB Max Hall upright (5th nationally in Sacks Allowed).

8. USC - It's amazing how one brain fart can impact the entire season. The Trojans are still a jug-jug-juggernaut (#4-ranked defense), so they need to remain at 1-loss to return to the BCS title game.

9. Texas Tech - An absolute beast on offense (583 yds/game, #2 nationally) . . . against glorified high school teams. Still give up a ton of yards on defense (336 yds/game, #49 nationally). Live by the sword, die by the sword.

10. Florida - Should have won that Ole Miss game, but the Gators will be the Gators. Slight edge over Georgia due to the fact that the Bulldogs got pummeled by Bama in Athens. This week's LSU game is a must-win if UF has any shot at reaching Atlanta.

An Open Letter to Tommy Tuberville

Coach,

I have now had a couple of days to digest our performance against Vanderbilt (i.e., calm down). There are a few issues I'd like to address:

1. Spencer Pybus. I'm sure Spencer is going to be a fine player one day, but he was a 1-star recruit who chose Auburn over Duke. Should he really be on the field as a true freshman? I don't think so. Yes, Spencer is very fast, and probably very athletic, but Spencer has a problem with play-action and misdirection. You see, Coach, Spencer wants to get the quarterback so badly that he bought every single play action fake Vandy ran Saturday. Spencer, as the man assigned to protect against the bootleg, would run himself right out of the play . . . over and over and over again. I hope you saw this, too, when watching the game film on Sunday. Coach, if Spencer is the best we can do right now, we might need to hit the recruiting trail a little harder for linebackers.

2. Rotating the Quarterbacks. I had no idea that the "Tony Franklin System" came with the tools to shatter the confidence of not one but two quarterbacks on the football team. Sure, teams have rotated their quarterbacks successfully in the past. But here's why it's not working for you: (a) Kodi Burns doesn't make an appearance until the 2nd half, when the ship is already taking on water. No pressure, Kodi, but we're sinking fast, so head on out there, and "good luck." By the way, if you screw up, you're right back out of the game in favor of Christie Todd. Coach, why not let Burns have a series in the first half, when the pressure is off, and which allows him to throw a curve at a Vandy defense that's already behind 13-0; (b) Why not use Kodi Burns in the redzone? See, we used to have this guy, Dameyune Craig, and he'd come in for Pat Nix in the redzone, and it worked. Imagine that. No one on this planet (or any other planet) thinks Chris Todd is going to keep the ball and run during the zone-read play. No one. Not even Vanderbilt. You should never ever ever ever run that play when Chris Todd is in the game. And because that play is a staple of the spread offense, well, you're starting to get my drift here.

3. I thought you had to "marry" the spread. I seem to remember someone saying something about marrying the spread; that if you convert to the spread offense, then you have to convert completely and take the good with the bad, until your players are comfortable with the system. Oh, yeah, that was ESPN's Chris Spielman. Guess what, I think he's on the money with this one. He said that you can't "date" the spread. I'm not even sure we're dating anymore. The spread is calling, but you're just letting it go to voicemail, Coach. What gives? You can't have it both ways. Either run the old offense, or run the spread offense. You're doing a disservice to the players and fans by trying to have it both ways. To quote the venerable Sean Connery: "you're playing both sides!" Asking Tony Franklin to implement and play-call a power offense is like asking a NASCAR driver to become a jockey at the Kentucky Derby - sure, it's a race and the goal is to finish first, but he has no idea how to get it done. I think you liked the uptick in recruiting that converting to the spread has brought, but I don't think you like the spread offense . . . at all. I think you hate it. I can see how much disdain you have for it by your expression on the sideline. It's killing you. Those Miami teams didn't run a fad offense during the 80s. You didn't need gimmicks when you won at Ole Miss with Stewart Patridge as your quarterback. Here's the problem, though: you change coordinators too much. If you axe Franklin, how many top coordinators are going to lineup to become your next fire (I mean hire)?

4. Wes Byrum. Coach, he's not right in the head anymore. Mister Clutch now misses chip-shot field goals and extra points. Honestly, you could randomly pick 12 drunk fratboys from the student section, and 11 of them would successfully kick an extra point (and that's with deck shoes on their feet).

5. Penalties. This might be the single most frustrating thing for Auburn fans. I think there were 10 penalties in the 3rd quarter alone. Coach, we can take a sucky offense (see 1998). We can take losing (see Barfield, Doug). But one thing Auburn fans can't handle is an undisciplined team that commits the same stupid mistakes over and over again. I would probably buy your argument on the holding penalties - I know what you're going to say: Chris Todd is (a) a statue, and (b) the football is his "precious" that he doesn't want to get rid of. Ok, holding is going to happen when that guy is in the game. But the false starts, that's another story. There is no way the spread offense is more vulnerable to false starts. Auburn never had this problem in the old offense. What gives? This is a discipline problem, and that falls to the offensive coordinator.

6. On a positive note. Coach, I don't want to be all Debbie-downer, so I would like to commend you on a couple things. First, the white shoes. Thanks for bringing those back. I like the white shoes, especially with the white uniforms. It was kinda neat to see #12 Jeff Burger back under center for the Tigers. I also want to give a shout-out to Ben Tate. Coach, Ben played his ass off, again. He's the only guy pulling his weight this year on offense. I hope he has the immunity idol when it's time for tribal council at this week's offensive meetings.

Well, that's all for now, Coach Tuberville. Good luck against Arkansas.