By The Numbers

Oh, what's that you say? There's an Auburn game this Saturday? The season isn't over? Perfect opponent at the perfect time for Auburn: Arkansas. C'mon, folks, let's get our "glass half full" on. A conference game, at home, against a bad team, that's not televised on the ESPN family of networks. Things have become so crazy lately with the Vandy loss and the Franklin firing that fans have forgotten this is "Bobby Petrino revenge week." You remember Petrino, right? The guy waiting on the tarmac for that Air Lowder jet in 2003. Here's a look at the relevant stats for Auburn and Arkansas:

Total Offense:
ARK - #73 (352.2 yds/game)
AUB - #104 (309.1 yds/game)

Rush Offense:
AUB - #60 (128.5 yds/game)
ARK - #107 (100.6 yds/game)

Pass Offense:
ARK - #33 (251.6 yds/game)
AUB - #103 (160.7 yds/game)

[Just as an aside, Alabama is ranked #104 and Ohio State is ranked #105]

Scoring Offense:
AUB - #103 (18.6 pts/game)
ARK - #109 (17.4 pts/game)

Now that we've gotten that ugliness out of the way, here are the defensive stats. Man, if you didnt' think Auburn's defense was carrying the team this year, wait until you see these stats.

Total Defense:
AUB - #7 (248.8 yds/game)
ARK - #87 (388.0 yds/game)

Rush Defense:
AUB - #14 (94.5 yds/game)
ARK - #107 (208.4 yds/game)

Pass Defense:
AUB - #13 (154.3 yds/game)
ARK - #32 (179.6 yds/game)

Scoring Defense:
AUB - #2 (11.2 pts/game)
ARK - #112 (38.0 pts/game)

Seriously, this is fantastic news for a struggling Auburn offense. The Razorbacks are allowing OVER 200 yards rushing per game and 38 points per game. Alabama dropped 40+, and Texas dropped 50+, on the Hogs' defense. If Auburn is going to pick up some momentum for the 2nd half of the season, THIS is the game to do it. They need a boost of confidence before playing West Virginia, Ole Miss, Georiga and Alabama (I do not think they need a boost to play Tennessee-Martin, however). When you dig deeper into the numbers there are some interesting trends Auburn must reverse in order to have a successful October and November. The first area is 3rd down.

As everyone knows, 3rd down is perhaps the most critical down in football. If you can't convert on 3rd down, or stop the other team from converting, odds are you won't have a very good team. While Auburn is fantastic at stopping opponents on 3rd down (#1 in the nation - opponents convert just 18.3% of the time), the offense is just about the worst team in the country at picking up the needed yards on 3rd down (#112 - converting only 29.7% of the time). Auburn's offense has a great chance to improve on 3rd down, because Arkansas is only 95th at stopping teams on 3rd down (44.1%). Conversely, the Auburn defense should continue to dominate, because the Hogs' offense is just 72nd in the country on 3rd down (37.9%).

A big reason for Auburn's failure on 3rd down: the passing game has not come up with the big plays to move the chains. Auburn QBs have completed 64.8% of their passes on 1st down, and completed 52.9% of their passes on 2nd down. But the number drops to 45.7% on 3rd down. Yikes. Auburn has attempted 46 passes on 3rd down this year, and they have picked up just 14 1st downs through the air. That's not good enough.

Let's not blame everything on the passing game, though. The running game has struggled, too, and nowhere is running the football more important than the "red zone" and the 4th quarter. This becomes obvious when you separate Auburn's rushing stats by quarter. In the 1st quarter, Auburn has gained 251 yards (4.25 yds/rush). In the 2nd quarter, 230 yards (3.9 yds/rush). Auburn has 240 yards (3.69 yds/rush) in the 3rd quarter. The 4th quarter, however, is remarkably lower. Traditionally, Auburn's offensive line has punished the opponent into submission, allowing for huge gains that finish off games. Not this year. In the 4th quarter Auburn has rushed for only 170 yards (despite having more rushing attempts than any other quarter) and a paltry 2.54 yards per rush average.

The rushing offense suffers a precipitous decline in yards per attempt in the red zone, too. From Auburn's 1-20 yard line, the Tigers average 3.51 yds/carry. The average is 4.46 yds/carry from Auburn's 21-30 yard line. From the Auburn 40 to the opponent 40, it's 3.05 yds/carry. From the opponent's 39-21 yard line, Auburn averages 4.24 yds/carry. The red zone, however, is a different story. Inside the opponent's 20 yard line, Auburn averages just 2.15 yds/carry. This, more than any other reason, is why Auburn is #111 in red zone offense. Twenty drives into the opponents red zone have yielded 9 TD, 4 FG, and 7 drives with zero points. Another reason this weekend's game is a chance to do something about the crappy red zone offense: Arkansas is 107th in red zone defense. The Hogs have given up 16 scores in 17 opponent trips into their red zone (and 13 were TD). Pair that with Arkansas' porous rush defense, and Auburn should be able to run the ball in for touchdowns this Saturday.

The other areas in which Auburn must improve are penalties and turnovers. Nothing pisses me off more than penalties and turnovers, and I've been pissed off a lot this season. Auburn is 101st in the country, averaging 7.83 penalties/game (for an average of 58.6 yards). Contrast that to Auburn in 2007 (6.2 penalties/game) and 2006 (5.5 penalties/game). Yeah, I don't like where that's headed, either. Arkansas isn't much better. The Hogs are 66th in the country, averaging 6.4 penalties/game (for 42.4 yards). Expect a lot of yellow hankies this Saturday.

[This is a home game, but I would like to point out that Auburn has played 2 road games, committing 12 penalties at Miss. State, and 11 penalties at Vanderbilt. Folks, those were the two easiest road games Auburn will have this year, and they came unglued in both. That doesn't bode well for trips to West Virginia, Ole Miss and Alabama, where the environment will be much more hostile.]

Turnovers have continued to plague Auburn, too. Auburn is 85th in the country with a -3 turnover margin (9 takeaways, 12 giveaways). Arkansas is 114th with only 3 takeaways and 11 giveaways (-11 turnover margin). Compare that to unbeaten Vanderbilt, who continues to make their living on turnovers (i.e., they don't turn it over, but they force opponents to cough up the ball). The Commodores have a +9 turnover differential.

So, there you have it. Auburn has some things to work on. I'll have more on the Arkansas-Auburn game tomorrow. Also, I'll have my "upset of the week" and predictions for this weekend's other games.