Arkansas @ Auburn

Arkansas will be playing their fourth straight game against a top-20 team this Saturday when they visit Auburn. Arkansas hopes to avoid going 0-4 in that streatch of games, after losing to Alabama, Texas, and Florida. This game marks the first visit by Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino since his one season as Auburn's offensive coordinator in 2002. Petrino's '02 offense averaged 29.8 points per game (and crossed the 50-point total twice), and included budding stars like Jason Campbell, Carnell Williams, Ronnie Brown, Courtney Taylor, and Anthony Mix. Those numbers are a far cry from this season's Auburn offense.

When Arkansas has the ball:

Petrino's offense is not as pass-happy as many experts would lead you to believe. Petrino has always favored a strong balance of run and pass. Petrino has also had some very good running backs in his offenses, including the aformentioned Williams and Brown, and also Michael Bush and Eric Shelton at Louisville. Petrino's featured back at Arkansas is Michael Smith. Smith rushed for 133 yards and a score last week against Florida. Smith will also be used in the passing game. He's caught 18 passes through the first five games.

Petrino's quarterback is Casey Dick. You might remember Dick as the middle-man between the center and Darren McFadden last year. Dick's job was to take the snap, get the ball to McFadden (or #2 running back Felix Jones), and get out of the way. Such is the life of a quarterback for Houston Nutt. For the first time in his career, Dick is being asked to burden a heavy load in the passing game. It's not surprising that Dick has struggled. Dick's struggles, however, are not entirely of his making. The Arkansas offensive line has not been able to keep Dick off the ground. Dick has been sacked 18 times this year, and 10 times in the last two games alone.

The underlying philosophy of Petrino's offense is this: attack the weakness of the defense with the same play, but disguise the play through the use of multiple formations. If Auburn's recent losses to LSU and Vanderbilt are any indication, Arkansas will look to attack the soft spots of Auburn's zone secondary, and use misdirection to catch Auburn overpursuing against the run. Petrino will attempt to confuse the defense with multiple formations, hoping to catch the Tigers worrying too much about the formation, rather than the weakness Petrino is seeking to exploit. Vanderbilt consistently caught Auburn overpursuing the run, and the Commodores were able to gain yards when Auburn had no back-side contain. The soft spot in a two-deep zone defense is called the "honey hole." It's the gap between the cornerback and the safety, along the sideline. Arkansas might look to find receivers in that gap, and when the safety moves up to close the hole, Arkansas will attempt to use double-moves and go for the homerun. It will be up to Casey Dick to make accurate throws against an Auburn defense that is sure to use pressure and blitzes to thwart the passing game.

When Auburn has the ball:

Man, does anyone really know? If Tuberville has told the offensive coaches anything this week, it's this: just get me to 20 points. With Auburn's staunch defense, 20 points should be enough to win this game. Much is made of Tuberville's incredible record when Auburn scores 30 or more points (36-0 since 2001). But the success rate is almost as high when Auburn scores merely 20 or more points (57-7 since 2001). The difference is stark when Auburn fails to reach 20 points. Auburn is just 13-18 since 2001 when scoring less than 20 points (and 2 of those wins were this year, 3-2 vs. MSU, and 14-12 vs. Tenn.).

Given Arkansas' troubles against the run, Auburn will certainly look to focus on the ground game. Whether it will take the form of the spread-option's zone read running play, or the under-center power formations used early on against Vanderbilt, is anyone's guess. If Auburn wants to make the spread work, then the quarterback needs to be Kodi Burns. Burns' threat as a runner keeps the defense honest, not allowing them to focus solely on running back Ben Tate.

Auburn needs to stay balanced, and therefore the passing game will need to step up against Arkansas. If Burns does play significant minutes, look for the throws to be short and safe; quick slants, bubble screens, out-routes. Auburn should avoid having Burns throw into traffic over the middle. He is still developing his accuracy, and given the fragile psyche of the offense, turnovers are to be avoided at all costs.

Prediction:

Auburn 24

Arkansas 14