Showing posts with label computer polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label computer polls. Show all posts

Monday, October 6, 2008

Weird Science


Another crazy week in college football means we're one step closer to the first BCS rankings. Last week I touched on the strangeness of having teams like Northwestern and Vanderbilt appear near the top of the rankings for a couple of the computer models that comprise the BCS. Well, thanks to Tony Franklin (and a bye week for Northwestern) we can continue the insanity. For example, Wes Colley and Kenneth Massey are giving us a preview for who they think will be participating in this year's SEC Championship game. We can also add a new crazy team to the list: Ball State. The Cardinals are 6-0, but have no standout wins. They did, however, beat Navy and Indiana. Their toughest remaining games are Western Michigan (5-1) and Central Michigan (3-2). Ball State could be 13-0 after the MAC Championship game . . . and still end up in the Motor City Bowl. Here are the computer rankings through the Oct. 4 games for four of the six computer rankings that comprise a portion of the BCS rankings.


Colley Matrix

1. Alabama

2. Vanderbilt

3. Missouri

4. Texas

5. Utah

6. Oklahoma

7. Penn State

8. Northwestern

9. Ball State

10. Virginia Tech


Surprises: Well, Vandy, Northwestern, and Ball State, for starters.

No respect: BYU is 25th.



Richard Billingsley

1. Alabama

2. Oklahoma

3. LSU

4. USC

5. Texas

6. Missouri

7. Ohio State

8. Georgia

9. Utah

10. BYU

Surprises: How about USC at #4, despite its loss to Oregon State?

No respect: Vanderbilt at #23, Texas Tech at #28, Ball State at #41, and Northwestern at #52.

Massey Ratings

1. Vanderbilt

2. Alabama

3. Missouri

4. Utah

5. Oklahoma

6. Northwestern

7. Penn State

8. Texas

9. Virginia Tech

10. Georgia Tech

Surprises: Uh, Vandy in the top spot. Massey apparently likes their win over Auburn more than Bama's win at Georgia. Imagine where Ga. Tech would be had they held on at Va. Tech.

No respect: LSU at #22 (hey, they beat Auburn, too).

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

1. USC

2. Oklahoma

3. Alabama

4. Penn State

5. Texas

6. Missouri

7. Florida

8. Georgia

9. Boise State

10. Texas Tech

Surprises: Where do we begin? How about at the top, where USC is still #1.

No respect: 5-1 Michigan State at #26, one spot BEHIND 2-3 Oregon State.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Would You Like To Play A Game?


The first BCS poll doesn't come out until October 19, but that doesn't mean people are ignoring those all important computer polls. The human polls, for the most part, are relatively similar in how they rank the top teams. With some variation, the AP poll, the USA Today poll, and the Harris Interactive poll all have Oklahoma, Alabama, LSU, Texas, and Missouri as the top 5 teams in the nation. The computers? Not so much. At least not yet. Four of the six computer polls are available to the public (the other two keep their data private until the first BCS rankings are released). Here is how the computers see things, and when it's this early in the season, the rankings are sure to raise some eyebrows.


Billingsley
1. LSU

2. Oklahoma

3. Alabama

4. USC

5. Missouri


Colley
1. Alabama

2. Vanderbilt

3. Utah

4. Texas

5. Northwestern


Massey
1. Alabama

2. Northwestern

3. Vanderbilt

4. Utah

5. Boise State


Sagarin
1. Alabama

2. Utah

3. Boise State

4. Texas

5. Oklahoma


It makes one wonder what exactly Mr. Massey's criteria are for ranking college football teams. Academics must matter as much as strength of schedule and margin of victory. That's the only rational explanation for Northwestern and Vanderbilt appearing in two of the rankings. Vandy is probably getting props for winning at Ole Miss, especially after the Rebs won in the Swamp last weekend. Mr. Billingsley's rankings appear quite similar to the human polls, except for the appearance of USC, which has a loss (and a pretty bad one, too, to Oregon State). The only school to appear in the top 5 of all four computer polls - Alabama. At least they all agree the Tide is off to a strong start, what with whipping Clemson and Georgia on the road. Utah appears in three of the polls, and that's better than Texas or Oklahoma, who appear in just two of the four available computer rankings.
Northwestern is an intriguing story, and one that TWP will be keeping an eye on. They have a young coach, Pat Fitzgerald, that has really energized the program. A surprising road win at Iowa has the Wildcats 5-0. Their schedule is relatively weak, and they avoid two of the better Big Ten teams this year, Penn State and Wisconsin. Their toughest remaining game is Ohio State, and the game is in Evanston on Nov. 8th. Northwestern's remaining schedule:
Oct. 11 Michigan State
Oct. 18 Purdue
Oct. 25 at Indiana
Nov. 1 at Minnesota
Nov. 8 Ohio State
Nov. 15 at Michigan
Nov. 22 at Illinois
Many have Penn State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin as the teams competing for the Big Ten's BCS bid (or bids, depending on how things shake out). But I wouldn't forget about Northwestern. They could be a spoiler, and possibly sneak into Rose Bowl contention should any of those other teams falter (or end up in the BCS National Championship Game).