Players, Not Plays

Folks, there's a talent shortage on the Plains right now. Do I think there a lot of players with amazing potential on the Auburn roster at this very moment? Yes. Are they at the point of realizing that potential? Not so much. Why is that? I think it goes back to recruiting. A wise man once said, "players, not plays." For all those people out there who think it's schemes and coaches who make the difference between a winning and losing team, you're skipping over the most important part of any successful football program. Sure, coaches provide the necessary discipline and focus, and many are excellent teachers that help players become better over the course of their playing careers. However, a coach ultimately relies on the talent of his players to win games. A coach can have the most brilliant gameplan imaginable, but the if the players can't execute, then it really doesn't matter.



Auburn is missing on those 3, 4, and 5-star recruits that are supposed to become the stars of any football team. To be honest, 5-star recruits really shouldn't be part of this conversation. Auburn has never been heavy on 5-star players. Tommy Tuberville has signed just 5 such players since 2003 (Brandon Jacobs in '03, Tray Blackmon '05, Greg Smith '06, Raven Gray '08, and Jermaine Johnson '08). Contrast that with schools like USC, which seems to sign 5 or 6 in each class. Jacobs played just 1 season at Auburn, settling at third string on the running back depth chart behind Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown. Tray Blackmon is a fantastic linebacker, but he's been hurt or in the doghouse most of his career. The jury is still out on whether Smith, Gray or Johnson will become superstars. The backbone of the Auburn program lies in those 3 and 4-star recruits.



Rating high school football players is certainly an inexact science. It's difficult to forecast the development of a 17 or 18 year old player. There are just too many unknown variables: how they respond to new coaches; living away from home; injuries; and the pressure of being a full-time college student. These are things you can't forecast when watching film of a kid's high school games. There will always be highly-rated kids who never pan out, and there will always be college stars that were overlooked as high school players. The problem with Auburn, however, is that they're missing at a higher rate than normal.



Juniors and seniors are the backbone of any college program. These are the players with the most experience, the most skill development, and the most able to take leadership roles on the team. For Auburn, because of redshirts and prep-schools, those juniors and seniors come from the 2003 through 2006 recruiting classes. I have included 2003, because there is still one player from that class starting for Auburn: DT Tez Doolittle. Hard to believe that Doolittle was recruited as a running back. Doolittle was a 4-star recruit. Despite an increase in four-star players signed in the classes of 2005, 2006 and 2007, the 2008 football team appears to be short on playmakers. Here's a breakdown of Auburn's most recent recruiting classes, based on the ratings given by Rivals.com:

2003

Four-star: 6

Three-star: 17

Two-star: 3

2004

Four-star: 4

Three-star: 10

Two-star: 12

2005

Four-star: 7

Three-star: 10

Two-star: 3

2006

Four-star: 14

Three-star: 7

Two-star: 3

2007

Four-star: 13

Three-star: 12

Two-star: 2

2008

Four-star: 4

Three-star: 16

Two-star: 7

2009 (Projected)

Four-star: 8

Three-star: 17

Two-star: 0

The 13-0 season in 2004 was expected to produce a windfall of fantastic players for the Auburn program. However, despite the increase in 4-star players in '05-'06-'07, the results have not produced a team capable of competing in 2008. The four-star numbers have started to decline in 2008 and 2009, and Auburn is back to signing more three-star players. However, that may not be a bad thing. Auburn's run of success from '04-'06 was built on mostly three-star players. Perhaps those four-star players will start producing in 2009. I guess my point is that the recruting boost from Auburn's 2004 SEC Championship team has not returned dividends in 2008, which is the year that those players were expected to carry the team.