Predictions

The weekend hasn't even begun yet and a member of the top 25 has already lost (#24 South Florida). Here's a look at the weekend's biggest games.

Northwestern @ #20 Minnesota
The Gophers are 7-1, and 3-1 in the Big T-eleven. They're stuck behind unbeaten Penn State, and Ohio State (Minnesota's only loss), so I don't think a Big Ten title is in the cards. However, a New Year's Day bowl in sunny Florida is certainly in the cards. The closing schedule is manageable, with 3 of their final 4 at home. Northwestern started off strong, but has come back to earth of late. Minnesota wins, 33-23.

Wisconsin @ #22 Michigan State
Michigan State has to be on letdown alert after their emotional win in Ann Arbor. The Spartans are dueling with teams like Ohio State and Minnesota for the choice New Year's bowl slots. Reps from these bowl games will be looking for strong finishes before handing out those invites. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is fighting just to make a bowl game. The Badgers are 4-4, and they played much better on offense with Dustin Sherer at quarterback last week in a win over Illinois. Wisconsin RB P.J. Hill returns to the lineup, but the Badgers will be without TE Travis Beckum for the rest of the season. I like the upset here, Wisconsin 24-23.

Miami, FL @ Virginia
Uh, don't look now, but Virginia is closing in on a spot in the ACC Championship Game. You read that correctly. The Cavs have won 4 straight after a 1-3 start. The streak includes a 31-0 whipping of Maryland, a win over East Carolina, a win over North Carolina, and a critical road victory at Georgia Tech. At 5-3 overall, and 3-1 in the Coastal Division, Virginia owns a half game lead, and the tiebreaker, over the Yellow Jackets. Virginia has a lot of work left, however, because no team has more than 2 losses in the division. There is no margin for error. Take Virginia's momentum over an inexperienced Canes team, 17-13.

West Virginia @ Connecticut
The Mountaineers are the only unbeaten team in Big East conference play, but they are a long way from securing another title. Connecticut, Cincinnati, Louisville, and Pitt are just behind, each with only 1 conference loss. As luck would have it, those are the next 4 opponents for West Virginia. This is a big game for the Huskies, but I don't see how they stop the deadly combo of QB Pat White and RB Noel Devine. Too much speed. West Virginia, 41-23.

#19 Tulsa @ Arkansas
Arkansas has won 16 straight games in this series, but the traveling Golden Hurricanes are better than a touchdown favorite in Little Rock. Tulso is 8-0 and looking for a big non-conference win against a BCS team to help boost their computer numbers. I feel for the Arkansas defensive staff this week. Here are Tulsa's point totals this season: 45, 56, 56, 62, 63, 37, 77, 49. Tulsa's remaining schedule doesn't feature a single team with a winning record, but there is some cache that comes with beating an SEC team on the road. Tulsa will most likely face East Carolina, however, in the Conference USA Championship Game. Arkansas has lost 5 of its last 6 games (the lone win . . . at Auburn, ugh). They have been competitive, however, in each of the last 3 games. The Hogs' defense has begun to play much better. Expect them to be fired up for this game, but I think Tulsa has too much offense. Tulsa, 31-28.

#16 Florida State @ Georgia Tech
Florida State is currently tied with Maryland for the lead in the Atlantic Division. Georgia Tech, which has looked better than expected under first-year coach Paul Johnson, was upset by Virginia at home last Saturday. I think Tech will struggle to move the ball against the Noles' defense. Expect a low-scoring defensive game, won by the visitors. FSU, 16-6.

#5 Florida @ #8 Georgia (Jacksonville, FL)
Does Florida retaliate for last year's big Georgia TD celebration? Better question: who cares? Well, CBS probably will, so be prepared to endure references to the 2007 game ad nauseum. It's week 2 of the SEC Elimination Series, designed to whittle down the championship contenders. Last week, Georgia knocked off LSU. This week, either the Bulldogs or the Gators will receive that 2nd loss that takes them out of the national championship conversation. I like the Gators because they have a better run defense than Georgia. The Gators allowed LSU just 80 yards rushing, while Georgia allowed LSU to pile up 188 rush yards. If Florida can take away Knowshon Moreno and make the Bulldogs one-dimensional, then they will live to fight another week in the BCS top 10. Florida, 27-23.

#1 Texas @ #6 Texas Tech
College football royalty versus the nouveau-riche. The Longhorns are a clear-cut #1, and they've played a daunting schedule thus far. The Red Raiders are about to begin a similar stretch of games that will test their championship mettle. The question for Texas Tech has always been: Is their defense good enough to help their offense out? This year, I think it is, However, Texas' offense has been other-worldly this season. Colt McCoy is completing over 80% of his passes. That is insane. The Texas defense has given up it's share of points this season (see Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State), but the offense has been so good that the margins of victory have remained comfortable. I think you'll see more the same this Saturday. Tech will get its points, but Texas will get more, a lot more. Texas 51-37.

#10 Utah @ New Mexico
Why is this game on the list, you ask? Because Utah might be looking ahead to next week's home date against TCU. Utah is dueling with Tulsa and Boise State for that non-BCS-conference automatic berth in the BCS. Utah has 2 critical games remaining, TCU and BYU. That's why I think this trip to Albuquerque is dangerous. New Mexico is only 4-5, but they did beat Arizona earlier in the season. This is also the final home game of the season for the Lobos, and teams have a way of taking their game to the next level on Senior Night. Utah holds on, barely, 31-30.

Inside the Numbers

Here's a look at how Auburn and Ole Miss compare heading into this Saturday's game.

OFFENSE:

Total -

UM 377.6 yds/game (55th)

AU 288.5 yds/game (109th)

Passing -

UM 215.6 yds/game (60th)

AU 151.5 (106th)

Rushing -

UM 162.0 yds/game (48th)

AU 137.0 yds/game (66th)

Scoring -

UM 27.2 pts/game (50th)

AU 18.8 pts/game (102nd)

DEFENSE:

Total -

UM 345.1 yds/game (55th)

AU 294.2 yds/game (17th)

Passing -

UM 234.3 yds/game

AU 166.0 yds/game

Rushing -

UM 110.8 yds/game (29th)

AU 128.2 yds/game (51st)

Scoring -

UM 24.3 pts/game (59th)

AU 15.7 pts/game (13th)

ODDS & ENDS

Ole Miss ranks 11th in the country in tackles-for-loss (7.88 per game).

Ole Miss ranks 26th in the country in sacks allowed (1.25 per game).

Auburn is first in the SEC (#5 in nation) in kickoff returns (26.54 yards per return).

Robert Dunn is first in the SEC (#2 in nation) in punt returns (21.44 yards per return)

Antonio Coleman leads the SEC in sacks/game and tackles-for-loss/game

Dave's Power 10

1. Texas (8-0) – Colt McCoy was out of his mind against Oklahoma State (84% completion, 391 yds), but the Cowboys still had a chance to win that game. The key was a good running game (229 yds) that kept the ball away from McCoy long enough to keep the score close. Next up for the Longhorns is yet another top-10 match-up of undefeated teams when they visit Texas Tech.

2. Penn State (9-0) – Gutsy win in the Horseshoe last week. With only three games remaining, the Nittany Lions will be favored in all of them. Despite their offensive struggles in Columbus, the Penn State attack still features balance (226 rushing yds/game; 233 passing yds/game). Combine that with marquee DE Aaron Maybin (11 sacks), and Joe Pa can almost taste Miami.

3. Alabama (8-0) – Tennessee once again displayed no offense (something we see a great deal of at Auburn), and the Tide slowly buried the Volunteers in Knoxville. John Wilson continues to limit his errors (3 INTs in 176 attempts) enough to allow the defense and running game to control the game.

4. Southern California (6-1) – One way to contain the Trojans is to force turnovers and protect the ball. Arizona almost stole a win in Tucson with this strategy, but the superior USC defense clamped down and denied any Wildcat comeback. Once again, the remaining schedule looks extremely favorable for another BCS trip.

5. Texas Tech (8-0) – It was a video game in Lawrence last Saturday, but that's par for the course in the Big XII these days. The Red Raiders sit atop the offensive rankings (#1 Passing; #2 Total; #3 Scoring), but now must face their biggest challenge . . . so far. Expect a shootout in Lubbock. Tech is 20-60-1 overall versus the Longhorns, and haven't won at home in the series since 2002.

6. Florida (6-1) – The Gators absolutely pasted a decent Kentucky squad, and now demonstrate a fierce defense (top-15 in all major categories) to compliment their special teams. All eyes will be on Jacksonville this weekend to see how many times CBS shows last year's footage of Georgia's team rushing the field after that touchdown. Revenge should be sweet.

7. Oklahoma (7-1) – Speaking of video games, the Sooners scored 28 points during the last 6:30 of the 1st half to take a 55-28 lead into halftime. Oddly, only 10 total points were scored in the 2nd half of that game. No Big XII team has a top-40 defense, so any evidence of defensive competence merits attention.

8. Georgia (7-1) – LSU continues to underachieve, and Georgia jumped out early on the Bayou Bengals to win in Baton Rouge. Three INTs (two returned for TDs) put the Bulldogs too far ahead in a game resembling a Big XII contest. It will be a game of stars in Jacksonville to determine the SEC East.

9. Boise State (7-0) – Only two more home games on the blue turf remain for the Broncos, but one is the finale against Fresno State. The "Fly in the Ointment" lives on after surviving in San Jose.

10. Utah (8-0) – After an off-week, the Utes travel to New Mexico before coming back home for TCU. Given Utah's mediocre offensive numbers, the Horned Frogs' defense (#1 Rushing; #2 Total and Scoring) will be ready. Texas Christian DE Jerry Hughes (12 sacks) should make things difficult for Brian Johnson & Co.

Defending the Spread

This Thursday's game between Auburn and West Virginia will feature two teams that run the spread offense. West Virginia has employed the spread since 2002, and it shows. They have perhaps the best run-threat spread QB in the country, Pat White. West Virginia's spread offense is diverse, well-organized, and lethal. The Mountaineers have had several years to recruit players uniquely suited to the spread offense. Auburn, using the spread for the first time this year, is still learning the nuances and continuing the transition from a traditional power offense. Auburn's defense should be well prepared for this game because they get to see the spread offense every day at practice. This leads to an interesting question: How do you stop the spread? There are three areas you need to be good at on the defensive side of the ball:

Defensive Team Speed
Excellent Open Field Tacklers
Gap Responsibility and Pursuit Discipline

There are certainly more complex aspects of defensive gameplanning that teams employ to stop the spread offense, but it's really too much to get into whether an odd front is better than an even front, sliding to strength or away from strength, slanting, angling, cover-2, cover-3, combo coverage, etc., is the best approach. I'll leave that up to Paul Rhoads and his defensive assistants. Let's start with these three fundamentals that every team needs in order to stop a spread offense.

1) Defensive Team Speed
It's obvious when you look at the landscape of both the college or high school game that players like Patrick White (West Virginia), Noel Devine (West Virginia), Armanti Edwards (Appalachian State), Terrelle Pryor (Ohio State), and Percy Harvin (Florida) have required defenses to have fast, athletic players to match the speed of these great athletes. When I say "speed," I don't mean 100 meter dash speed per say, but football speed, which is usually an athlete that not only can run fast in a straight line, but can also run fast, stop, then re-start again at a rapid rate. Change of direction speed, the ability to accelerate, decelerate, then re-accelerate at a rapid pace. Is a player born with this? Some are for sure. Can a player work on this type of speed? Absolutely. It's called change of direction training, and such training facilities as The Parisi Speed School and Velocity Training teach it around the country. Parisi calls it "Deceleration Training."

Tommy Tuberville, I think, has been ahead of the curve in this respect for several years. Tuberville has long preferred smaller, faster, linebackers that can quickly cover ground from one sideline to the other. Auburn's linebackers are more the size of a what a traditional safety would be. This focus on speed and athleticism, rather than size and brute strength, has enabled Auburn's defense to match up well with an opposing offense's playmakers. The advantage was certainly obvious in upset wins over Florida in 2006 and 2007.

2) Excellent Open Field Tacklers

The one big thing a spread offense trys to exploit is the need for defenses to be in open space, often with even numbers of offensive and defensive players in a particular section of the field; this takes away the classic "gang tackling" concept that so many defenses preach. It's much harder to gang tackle when you're spread all across the field; isolating areas of the field is what spread offenses are looking for. Working on open field, individual tackling is of the utmost importance for defenses. The ability to break down in the open field, make good contact, and wrap-up as you bring down the offensive player is very important for a team's "2nd level" players (linebackers and lefensive backs).

One very simple part of being a good open field tackler is teaching the defender to have their head up, and eyes open right up to impact (Chris Spielman always refers to this as "see what you hit, and hit what you see"). This may sound simple, but you would be surprised how many players close their eyes right before contact. It's a natural human reaction to close your eyes before any contact, and football is no different, but you need to change that if you want players that are good open field tacklers.

Angles of pursuit are also critical. This is not just the game saving angles of pursuit; the intermediate angles of pursuit, and what to do when you get there (tackle and then strip), are also very important in stopping the spread offense. Players must always take a proper angle and be ready to deliver an open field blow.

3) Gap Responsibility and Pursuit Discipline
The great Denver Broncos teams of the late 90's gave defenses fits with their zone blocking scheme and the ability of Terrell Davis to cut back on over pursuing defenses. In 2008 you're seeing college and high school spread offense zone teams do the same thing to over-aggressive defenses who insist on flying over the top to get the zone hand-off, only to get burned by either the tailback cutting back against the pursuit, or the QB (who's now the best athlete on the team and one of the fastest) tucking it on the zone read and bootlegging the other way. The ability of a defense to be disciplined in gap responsibility and pursuit starts in practice. It needs to be worked on in individual, group, and team settings.

It all starts with confidence in the team that all 11 players believe in each other (i.e., if I do my job then the team will benefit). Don't confuse this with not being an aggressive defense; it just needs to be emphasized to defensive players that the pursuit angle (on any play run away from that player's position) should never pass the ball carriers "inside pocket" or armpit at that player's level. Once the play passes a player's level, they need to fly to the ball, because a cutback at that point is no longer a concern at that player's responsibility level. Now if the ball is coming "play side" (right at the defender), they still need to keep their outside arm free and never give away the corner, believing in teammates that pursue from the backside using the correct angles will be there soon to help out.

One of the best defenses that does all of the above has been South Florida, especially in their games against West Virginia the past two years. USF's defensive staff would be a great group to go visit and clinic with if you need to stop a West Virginia-style, run-dominant, spread offense. Hopefully Coach Tuberville has good contacts with Jim Leavitt in the wake of their 2007 game. Also, defensive coordinator Paul Rhoads, in his previous stint at Pitt, has a lot of experience with West Virginia's spread offense. Most notably, Rhoads' Panthers shut down the West Virginia offense in the regular season finale in 2007.

When watching the Auburn-West Virginia game on Thursday night, look to see if Auburn's defense is making open-field tackles and limiting the cutback plays from West Virginia's offense. These are two major keys if Auburn hopes to come away with a win.

Dave's Power 10

1. Texas (7-0) - Another convincing win over a good Big XII team. The Longhorns are walking the walk so far. Here's a funny stat: Texas scores the same amount of points/game as their defense allows in rushing yards (48.14).

2. Penn State (8-0) - Michigan played a good game early, but couldn't withstand the second half avalanche. For this reason, I place the Nittany Lions in front of Bama, and also due to the Tide's struggles at home against Ole Miss. PSU put away Michigan with 39 unanswered points.

3. Alabama (7-0) - I watched this game hoping for a Houston Nutt miracle, and it almost happened. The Tide couldn't put the Rebels away, but hung on to win. Bama's passing offense (103rd nationally) needs to somehow compliment their rushing offense (209 yds/game) in order to remain unbeaten. That's two consecutive nail-biters following the Georgia beat-down.

4. Southern California (5-1) - Everyone thought, "There's no way USC wins by 42 points! I'm taking Wazzu to cover." But when it was 41-0 at halftime, we understood the error of our ways. A slightly resurgent Arizona squad (#9 scoring offense, #6 passing defense) could provide some resistance this Saturday in Tucson.

5. Oklahoma State (7-0) - Last week's Baylor game was the first single digit performance for the Cowboy defense (aka the step-child unit of the team). Zac Robinson, Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant are the straws that stir OSU's drink, and they need to get plastered in order to beat Texas in Austin.

6. Oklahoma (6-1) - Sam Bradford (#4 nationally in total offense) out-dueled Todd Reesing (#7 nationally). The Sooner defense has given up 76 points the last two games. Well, at least they have the 4th best offense in the nation right now (544 yards/game) . . . because they're going to need it.

7. Florida (5-1) - The Gators thrive on field position due to their exceptional return man, Brandon James (21 yds/punt; 29 yds/kickoff). Add to that their ability to hold onto the ball (#3 nationally in turnover margin), and Florida puts tremendous pressure on opponents.

8. Texas Tech (7-0) - The Red Raiders were an amazing 10 of 12 on 3rd down against Texas A&M. That helps when your defense is so average (#51 nationally). Here comes the gauntlet that should either justify their style, or re-expose Tech as the perennial video game team.

9. Boise State (6-0) - The Broncos play in a weak conference against weak opponents. Yeah, yeah, we've heard all that before. But Boise dominates the WAC so well that they deserve recognition, especially when they've beaten a Pac-10 team on the road.

10. Utah (8-0) - The Utes are a product of a weak conference, and fortune (i.e., Michigan's transition to Rich Rodriguez's system). However, their days in the Power 10 may be numbered with upcoming games against TCU and BYU. Fortunately, both games are in the friendly (and non-alcoholic) confines of Salt Lake City.

This Weekend's Key Games

Auburn doesn't play this Saturday, but that doesn't mean there aren't some excellent college football games worth paying attention to.

Wake Forest (4-1) @ Maryland (4-2), 12pm Eastern

It's a noon kickoff in College Park (so, Jason, that means it's 9:00am in Berkeley). Maryland has been very Jekyll and Hyde this year (losing to Middle Tennessee, beating Cal, losing to Virginia). The Terps are strong at home. Wake has been relying too much on its defense to win games. If the Deacons can't generate more offense, then I like Maryland to pull the mild upset.

UMD 27

WFU 23

Purdue (2-4) @ Northwestern (5-1), 12pm Eastern

Northwestern fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last week against Michigan State. The Wildcats are still in the Big Ten race, however. Taking care of business against a struggling Purdue team is necessary in order to keep pace with Ohio State and Penn State. Purdue is playing for its bowl-eligible life.

NWU 36

PU 33

Texas Tech (6-0) @ Texas A&M (2-4), 12pm Eastern

Did you know that A&M has the #1 pass defense in the Big XII? That probably has to do with the fact that they haven't played: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, or Texas Tech. I don't think the Aggies have a prayer against the Red Raiders' offense.

TTU 41

TAM 20

Vanderbilt (5-1) @ Georgia (5-1), 12:30pm Eastern

It seems like a panic move to me, switching quarterbacks after 1 loss. But that's what Vanderbilt is going to do this Saturday. I think the rose is off the bloom for the Commodores, who will probably come crashing back down to earth. They'll still reach a bowl game, but only because Duke is still left on the schedule. That said, the game will stay close. Georgia isn't very explosive on offense right now.

UGA 24

VU 14

Ole Miss (3-3) @ Alabama (6-0), 3:30pm Eastern

Each of the last 3 meetings between these two teams has been settled by 3 points. Ole Miss has played well on the road this year, nearly upsetting Wake Forest and taking down Florida. The key question is whether Ole Miss can generate a running game against Alabama's defense. Expect another closely fought SEC game, but expect Alabama to improve to 7-0.

UAT 20

UM 12

Ohio State (6-1) @ Michigan State (6-1), 3:30pm Eastern

UPSET SPECIAL. I like the Spartans in this game for one reason: Javon Ringer. Michigan State will use Ringer to wear down the Buckeyes' defense and keep the ball away from Ohio State's offense. Ohio State might be looking ahead to next week's game vs. Penn State, too.

MSU 26

OSU 24

Kansas (5-1) @ Oklahoma (5-1), 3:30pm Eastern

Kansas' improbable 2007 run to the Orange Bowl was helpe by the fact that they did not play Texas or Oklahoma. If Kansas wants to return to a BCS bowl game this year, then they will have to do it by beating the top teams in their conference. The Jayhawks are catching Oklahoma at the wrong time - immediately after a loss to rival Texas. I think Oklahoma will come out firing. Kansas' defense is as good this year (torched by South Florida; torched early by Iowa State), either. That's not a good combination.

OU 41

KU 23

Michigan (2-4) @ Penn State (7-0), 4:30pm Eastern

Expect Michigan's 9-game winning streak in this series to come to an end. This could get ugly.

PSU 38

UM 10

Mississippi State (2-4) @ Tennessee (2-4), 7:00pm Eastern

First team to score wins. You think I'm kidding? Both teams have above average defenses. Both teams have galactically bad offenses. If you like punting, and if you like "field position games," then this matchup is for you.

MSU 3

UT -1

LSU (5-1) @ South Carolina (5-2), 8:00pm Eastern

Were you as surprised as me to see that Carolina is 5-2? How did that happen? Most experts think this will be a very close game. I guess they base that on LSU's ugly road loss at Florida. I happen to think the opposite. LSU is very very very mad. LSU is going to stuff USC's offense all night. I like LSU in a rout.

LSU 31

USC 13

Virginia Tech (5-1) @ Boston College (4-1), 8:00pm Eastern

Tech's defense will have their work cut out for them trying to stop Matt Ryan and the Eagles' offense. What's that, you say? Tech beat Ryan's Eagles last year. And Matt Ryan is gone. Oh, then why in the heck is BC a 3-point favorite in this game?

VPI 23

BC 17

Missouri (5-1) @ Texas (6-0), 8:00pm Eastern

Game of the Week. Conventional wisdom would say that because Texas is coming off a big win vs. Oklahoma, and because Missouri is coming off a stinging loss to Oklahoma State, that this game has the makings of a very close matchup. I don't think so. Texas hung 45 on the Sooners defense. Yikes. Missouri's defense isn't nearly that good. Chase Daniels and the Tigers have a fantastic offense, but they didn't exactly light it up against the Cowboys last week. Missouri can't keep pace for 60 minutes.

UT 37

UM 20

Just Stop It, Clemson. Stop It!

Really, Clemson? Are you serious? "Tiger Walk?" As if the similarities between Clemson and Auburn weren't already numerous, Clemson's interim football coach, Dabo Swinney, has decided to add one more. Clemson will start a new tradition this Saturday. Two hours before kickoff against Georgia Tech, Clemson players will walk through the parking lot on their way to the stadium. The event will be called "Tiger Walk." Man, that sounds familiar. Where have I heard of that?

Oh, yeah, AUBURN already has something called "Tiger Walk." It's been around since the 1960s. So, what possessed Coach Swinney to come up with such a ridiculous copycat idea? Maybe he just wants to emulate Auburn's program as much as possible. Things are definitely on the right track: (1) crappy quarterback play (Check! Yeah, I'm talking about you, Cullen Harper. Oh, crap, tell your dad to stop crying); (2) Three losses already, despite a preseason top-10 ranking (Check!); (3) fire a head coach named Bowden that never lived up to expectations (Check!).

For those who don't know, Swinney was a former wide receiver at Alabama from 1989-1992. Swinney also started his coaching career at Alabama. He was hired at Clemson in 2002 after the Tide cleaned house by firing Mike Dubose.

[As an aside, Swinney's real name is William Christopher. The nickname Dabo came from his older brother, who would say "Dabo" in an effort to call his baby brother "that boy." Ahhhh, Pelham, Alabama.]

[Interim] Coach Swinney, is "Tiger Walk" really going to fix the problems you have at Clemson? I doubt it. Why ruin the uniqueness of Clemson (i.e., touching Howard's Rock as you run onto the field) by copying the tradition of another school? Hopefully your successor will bag this idea and move on to more important things, like winning games.