10-4 Auburn starts their SEC schedule in Columbia this Saturday vs. 11-2 South Carolina. Auburn might have their best chance under Jeff Lebo to contend for a bid into the NCAA tournament. The SEC lacks a truly dominant team, and the Western division appears to have no clear front-runner. 12-1 Arkansas has a pair of impressive wins against top-10 teams (Oklahoma, Texas), but I still have my doubts about the strength of the Big XII. After seeing Arkansas firsthand vs. South Alabama, I did not come away impressed. The Jags dominated play most of the game. Arkansas relies heavily on their guards. Any team with decent perimeter defenders should be able to squelch the Hogs' offense. That's why I like Auburn to compete in the West. They are playing the best defense of any Jeff Lebo-coached Auburn team. I was in Charlottesville for the game against Virginia, and I came away very impressed by their ball-hawking and presence on the defensive glass.
As for South Carolina: play somebody! The Gamecocks have padded their record through a November and December schedule that would have made Cliff Ellis very proud. They played just two major-conference opponents, losing to #20 Clemson, but beating #19 Baylor in Waco (again, I think the Big XII is being overvalued by the pollsters). Throw in a loss to College of Charleston, and you have a team that could easily be pushing near .500 by late February.
The player to watch for the Gamecocks is guard Devan Downey. Downey scored 23 against Baylor, and went for 37 against a good Clemson team. South Carolina uses a 3-guard, 2-forward starting five. Their biggest inside presence, Dominique Archie, is prone to foul trouble. Archie has already fouled out of 3 games this year. Archie fouled out in both the Clemson and Baylor games. Carolina lacks depth on the interior, and if Archie has to spend significant minutes on the bench, it could allow Auburn's Korvotney Barber to dominate the paint. Look for Auburn to get the ball in Barber's hands early and often in order to try and draw Archie into foul trouble.
Auburn is riding a 7-game winning streak as they enter SEC play. This opening game is a chance to keep the momentum going before two huge homes games against Florida and Alabama. Forward Korvotney Barber is having a stellar season, averaging a double-double (12.0 points / 11.4 rebounds). DeWayne Reed has been playing extremely well of late, scoring 20+ points in his last two games (Southeast Louisiana, Tulane). As I mentioned earlier, the defense has been driving Auburn's success this season. The Tigers are holding opponents to just 37.7% from the field (and 33.8% vs. their last 3 opponents).
Auburn matches up well with South Carolina b/c both teams rely heavily on their guards. Auburn has the perimeter defenders necessary to keep Devan Downey and Zam Frederick in check. Barber should be unchallenged on the interior, allowing Auburn to control the glass. I like Auburn in a close game, 66-62.
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