The Weekly Preview

Gearing Up For Fall Practice

2009-07-16T10:54:00.003-04:00

We're just a few weeks away from the start of fall practice, folks. Who's getting excited? I know I am. While the 2009 season probably won't be one of Auburn's best, there's definitely a lot to look forward to. Change will be evident across the board. A new(er) offense, a new defense, all new coaches, lots of new players, and new expectations. Auburn won't be competing for the SEC title this season, but they will begin the building process for 2010 and beyond. This team has the opportunity to compete for a bowl invitation, and those extra weeks of practice in December could be important down the road.

This season will be a lot like 1999. If you remember, Auburn fans were glad the drama of the Terry Bowden soap opera was behind them. Tommy Tuberville was an up and coming coach, and fans were excited about seeing the Auburn program return to a championship caliber based on power running and strong defense. Auburn struggled in 1999, but that team laid the foundation for the surprise division title in 2000 and the success of the new decade. Auburn fans need to approach this season, and all the changes around it, with that same goal in mind.

Here's a projected starting lineup for 2009:

OFFENSE QB Kodi Burns (6-1, 209, Jr.) RB Ben Tate (5-11, 217, Sr.) WR Darvin Adams (6-3, 184, Soph.) WR Tim Hawthorne (6-3, 214, Jr.) WR Terrell Zachery (6-1, 209, Jr.) TE Tommy Trott (6-5, 237, Sr.) T Andrew McCain (6-6, 295, Sr.) T Lee Ziemba (6-8, 304, Jr.) G Mike Berry (6-3, 313, Jr.) G Byron Isom (6-3, 293, Jr.) C Ryan Pugh (6-4, 287, Jr.)

DEFENSE E Antonio Coleman (6-3, 257, Sr.) T Mike Blanc (6-4, 288, Jr.) T Jake Ricks (6-4, 296, Sr.) E Michael Goggans (6-3, 257, Jr,) LB Josh Bynes (6-2, 233, Jr.) LB Eltoro Freeman (5-11, 222, Soph.) LB Craig Stevens (6-3, 227, Jr.) CB Walt McFadden (6-0, 176, Sr.) CB Aairon Savage (5-11, 173, Sr.) FS Zac Etheridge (6-0, 204, Jr.) SS Mike McNeil (6-2, 205, Jr.) SPECIAL TEAMS K Wes Byrum (6-2, 214, Jr.) P Clinton Durst (6-1, 192, Sr.) KR Mario Fannin (5-11, 226, Jr.) PR Mario Fannin (5-11, 226, Jr.)

Granted, this lineup is definitely subject to change based on fall practice. In particular, the quarterback race should provide daily storylines. Neil Caudle and Chris Todd will push Burns for the job. I wouldn't count out true freshman Tyrik Rollison, either. He's the future of the Malzahn offense, and if the upperclassmen aren't executing, the coaches may decide to get Rollison on the field quickly with an eye toward 2010. Auburn opens with 4 straight winnable home games, so the schedule provides an opportunity to ease Rollison into college game.

I think the running back rotation is also going to be interesting. Ben Tate is the starter, but there are some solid options behind him. Mario Fannin could be all over the field this year, but if he can fix his fumbling issues, I expect him to touch the ball a lot. Look out for Eric Smith and Onterrio McCalebb, too. Smith is big and powerful, while McCalebb is small and quick.

I'm also looking forward to seeing more from Auburn's receivers. The Tony Franklin spread offense was a dud last year in part to the underperformance from the Tiger wideouts. That will need to change this year. I think Quindarius Carr, Derek Winter, and Philip Pierre-Louis will step up to provide multiple options for the Auburn quarterback, in addition to starters Tim Hawthorne, Terrell Zachary and Darvin Adams.

The offensive line depth will certainly be a problem. Auburn's hopes for a winning season rest on their health. Any serious injuries would result in a lot of shuffling and inexeperience on the field. That was a major problem during 2008.

Anyway, I'm excited, and I hope you're excited. Football season is just around the corner.

Auburn Opens 2009 SEC Hoops Season vs. South Carolina

2009-01-07T11:18:00.007-05:00

10-4 Auburn starts their SEC schedule in Columbia this Saturday vs. 11-2 South Carolina. Auburn might have their best chance under Jeff Lebo to contend for a bid into the NCAA tournament. The SEC lacks a truly dominant team, and the Western division appears to have no clear front-runner. 12-1 Arkansas has a pair of impressive wins against top-10 teams (Oklahoma, Texas), but I still have my doubts about the strength of the Big XII. After seeing Arkansas firsthand vs. South Alabama, I did not come away impressed. The Jags dominated play most of the game. Arkansas relies heavily on their guards. Any team with decent perimeter defenders should be able to squelch the Hogs' offense. That's why I like Auburn to compete in the West. They are playing the best defense of any Jeff Lebo-coached Auburn team. I was in Charlottesville for the game against Virginia, and I came away very impressed by their ball-hawking and presence on the defensive glass.

As for South Carolina: play somebody! The Gamecocks have padded their record through a November and December schedule that would have made Cliff Ellis very proud. They played just two major-conference opponents, losing to #20 Clemson, but beating #19 Baylor in Waco (again, I think the Big XII is being overvalued by the pollsters). Throw in a loss to College of Charleston, and you have a team that could easily be pushing near .500 by late February.

The player to watch for the Gamecocks is guard Devan Downey. Downey scored 23 against Baylor, and went for 37 against a good Clemson team. South Carolina uses a 3-guard, 2-forward starting five. Their biggest inside presence, Dominique Archie, is prone to foul trouble. Archie has already fouled out of 3 games this year. Archie fouled out in both the Clemson and Baylor games. Carolina lacks depth on the interior, and if Archie has to spend significant minutes on the bench, it could allow Auburn's Korvotney Barber to dominate the paint. Look for Auburn to get the ball in Barber's hands early and often in order to try and draw Archie into foul trouble.

Auburn is riding a 7-game winning streak as they enter SEC play. This opening game is a chance to keep the momentum going before two huge homes games against Florida and Alabama. Forward Korvotney Barber is having a stellar season, averaging a double-double (12.0 points / 11.4 rebounds). DeWayne Reed has been playing extremely well of late, scoring 20+ points in his last two games (Southeast Louisiana, Tulane). As I mentioned earlier, the defense has been driving Auburn's success this season. The Tigers are holding opponents to just 37.7% from the field (and 33.8% vs. their last 3 opponents).

Auburn matches up well with South Carolina b/c both teams rely heavily on their guards. Auburn has the perimeter defenders necessary to keep Devan Downey and Zam Frederick in check. Barber should be unchallenged on the interior, allowing Auburn to control the glass. I like Auburn in a close game, 66-62.

I Think I Just Threw Up In My Mouth

2008-12-13T18:29:00.003-05:00

Really? Gene Chizik? When Jay Jacobs paid a $5 million buyout to the current coach (who was not fired, but who resigned) and then said that in hiring a new coach, "Money is not a concern," this was the guy they hired?

Gene Chizik, the guy who bolted Auburn after the 2004 season to be the co-defensive coordinator at Texas because it was more likely to land him head coaching opportunities? Seriously, this guy bolted after a 13-0 season and basically told Auburn it was a bad place for his career. And we're the big time school that ultimately gives him a prestigious head coaching job!?! How stupid does Auburn look for making that move.

Gene Chizik, who went 5-19 in two seasons at Iowa State, including 2-10 in 2008. Did Auburn just do Chizik the biggest favor imaginable by hiring him before he was fired by the Cyclones? Iowa State, a bottom-feeder in the Big XII, but still a program that has had moderate success in recent years. They've been to 5 bowl games this decade. However, Chizik showed no ability to turn that program around. At all. Compare his body of work to Turner Gill's three seasons at Buffalo. Gill went 8-5 and won the MAC Championship. Chizik couldn't even reach bowl eligibility. Chizik lost the final 10 games of the season, and 1 of his 2 wins this year was against FCS South Dakota State.

Oh, but Gene Chizik is a defensive wizard who masterminded Auburn's defense in 2004 and Texas' defense in 2005, you say? How were his defenses at Iowa State? The Cyclones allowed 42 points per game in 2008. Here are the point totals allowed for the final 9 games of the year: 34, 35, 38, 3, 49, 59, 28, 52, and 38. And Iowa State didn't even play Texas Tech, Oklahoma or Texas, the 3 best offensives in the conference. The Cyclones finished 111th in total defense (452 yds/game) even with the most favorable schedule in the Big XII (a. they play in the North division; and b. they avoided the top 3 teams in the South division). Yikes.

Chizik arguably left Iowa State in worse shape than he found it. In 2006, the final season before Chizik's arrival, the Cyclones allowed merely 30 points and 392 yards per game to their opponents. The team went 4-8 that year, and fired Dan McCarney. Chizik promptly went 3-9 out of the gates in 2007, and then followed it up with a 2-10 mark this season. I wouldn't be surprised if Cyclones fans are dancing in the streets that he's gone. Maybe they'll do the smart thing and hire Turner Gill.

It's tough to be a Longhorn this morning . . .

2008-12-08T09:12:00.003-05:00

I can't take credit for coming up with this, but it's pretty funny, and so is this Southpark version of Big XII coaches. Yes, it's from 2006, but the Mangino is priceless.

BCS DECLARES GERMANY WINNER OF WORLD WAR II - US Ranked 4th

After determining the Big-12 championship game participants the BCS
computers were put to work on other major contests and today the BCS
declared Germany to be the winner of World War II.
"Germany put together an incredible number of victories beginning with
the annexation of Austria and the Sudetenland and continuing on into
conference play with defeats of Poland, France, Norway, Sweden, Denmark,
Belgium and the Netherlands. Their only losses came against the US and
Russia; however considering their entire body of work--including an
incredibly tough Strength of Schedule--our computers deemed them worthy
of the #1 ranking."

Questioned about the #4 ranking of the United States the BCS
commissioner stated "The US only had two major victories--Japan and
Germany. The computer models, unlike humans, aren't influenced by
head-to-head contests--they consider each contest to be only a single,
equally-weighted event."

German Chancellor Adolph Hitler said "Yes, we lost to the US; but we
defeated #2 ranked France in only 6 weeks." Herr Hitler has been
criticized for seeking dramatic victories to earn 'style points' to
enhance Germany's rankings. Hitler protested "Our contest with Poland
was in doubt until the final day and the conditions in Norway were
incredibly challenging and demanded the application of additional
forces."

The French ranking has also come under scrutiny. The BCS commented "
France had a single loss against Germany and following a preseason #1
ranking they only fell to #2."

Japan was ranked #3 with victories including Manchuria, Borneo and the
Philippines.

The Skinny on Mike Leach

2008-12-04T09:29:00.002-05:00

Rumors abound that Auburn wants Mike Leach to be the next head football coach. Here's my take on Leach.

Good:

1. Nine straight winning seasons at Texas Tech, with nine bowl appearances (5 wins)

2. Only once has he had a losing record in Big XII conference play (3-5 in 2000)

3. No probation or NCAA penalties

Bad:

1. His career record against Oklahoma is 2-7. Both wins were at home.

2. His career record against Texas is 3-6. All 3 wins were at home.

3. This is the same guy that lost to Mike Shula's Alabama team in the Cotton Bowl following the 2005 season

4. He's obsessed with Pirates.

Leach is the wrong guy for Auburn. Period. If Leach has ever sat in on a defensive meeting, I'd be shocked. This guy is an offensive guru, but that's not what Auburn needs. Auburn needs a football coach that understands the SEC, can recruit solid players, and who can actually beat his biggest rivals.

Blame This Guy

2008-12-04T09:10:00.002-05:00

I'm stunned. Shocked. Terrified. If 85 wins and 7 Iron Bowl victories in 10 years is not enough to satisfy the boobs that now run Auburn University, then what will it take?

Why would Auburn run off a coach that has been incredibly successful, runs a clean program, loves the University, and epitomizes "Auburn football" for the flavor of the week? With that I'm referring to rumors that Auburn has unofficially gauged Texas Tech coach Mike Leach's interest in the job. Really? Mike Leach. That gimmick offense will never work. The man could care less about defense. Auburn football is about defense, power running, and toughness. Those are three things you won't find at Texas Tech.

Want to blame someone? Blame Bobby Lowder. I don't get this guy. Did he force out a coach who has won 6 of the last 7 games against Alabama simply because he wouldn't worship at the feet of all things Lowder? How can he claim to love Auburn, and act in Auburn's best interest, when he does something this stupid? Karma has a funny way of working. I guarantee you that Mississippi State is going to be all over Tuberville. And when State beats Auburn next year in Jordan-Hare, I might be cheering silently for the Bulldogs.

We Need Some Names

2008-12-03T16:11:00.002-05:00

Everyone seems preoccupied with whether or not Coach Tuberville is going to keep his job. Personally, I think he is a lock to stay. You don't fire a guy that's 7-3 against the school's biggest rival after one bad season. After two consecutive bad seasons? Maybe, but let's not throw away 2009 just yet. The search for the next offensive coordinator has been weighing on my mind, lately. What direction will Tuberville take the offense. Keep leaning towards the spread? A return to a traditional, more conservative, power offense? The "humanist" hybrid I talked about yesterday? It's hard to say. Since the humanist thing is my creation, I'm going to run with it. Here are some names I think will end up on the list that Tuberville chooses from. Oh, one name you won't be seeing is Chip Kelly.

Kelly is Oregon's offensive coordinator. He was recently named the "coach in waiting" when Mike Bellotti moves on to become the school's athletic director. Kelly, 45, was rumored to be of interest to Syracuse for their head coaching position. It's certain that Tuberville would have looked into hiring him. Using his spread-option offense, the Ducks are ranked fourth in the nation in rushing, averaging 277.8 yards a game, and are eighth in total offense with 467.2 yards a game. Kelly was also instrumental in developing former Oregon QB Dennis Dixon. If Tuberville was looking to keep the spread offense, Kelly was definitely the best available coordinator. On to the list, which is in no particular order.

1. Trooper Taylor, Co-Offensive Coordinator, Oklahoma State. Taylor is in his first year at Oklahoma State and serves as co-offensive coordinator and receivers coach. Taylor came from Tennessee, where he was on staff from 2004-07 and was assistant head coach/player development and receivers coach for the Volunteers. He is nationally-known for his prowess on the recruiting trail, and was recognized by Rivals.com as a top-25 recruiter in 2005 and 2007. His ability to recruit, his familiarity with the SEC, and his energetic rapport with the players (he's like the Will Muschamp of offensive assistants) would make him very desirable. I think he would become the first African-American offensive coordinator in SEC history, too. A public relations coup that might pay off on the recruiting trail. Taylor brought some major talent to Knoxville. Oklahoma State's offense has been outstanding this year. The Cowboys are 7th overall in total offense (489 yards/game), 8th in rushing (256 yards/game), 42nd in passing (233 yards/game), and 8th in scoring (41.5 points/game). So, who's the other co-coordinator in Stillwater, you ask?

2. Gunter Brewer, Co-Offensive Coordinator, Oklahoma State. Brewer is in his fourth season at Oklahoma State and his first as Co-Offensive Coordinator and quarterbacks coach. He served the three previous three seasons as wide receivers coach and passing game coordinator. He was one of the key minds behind one of the nation’s most dynamic and explosive offenses as I described above. Brewer coached receiver Adarius Bowman to back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons in 2006 and 2007, as Bowman’s receptions totaled 1,181 yards in 2006 and 1,006 yards in 2007. Brewer also coached Dez Bryant to 622 receiving yards and a spot on Rivals.com’s 2007 Freshman All-America second team in 2007. If Auburn is looking to get better at the wide receiver position, then Brewer is a coach with a proven track record for recruiting and developing top-flight receivers. Before coming to Oklahoma State, Brewer developed outstanding receivers at Marshall (1996-99) and North Carolina (2000-04).

3. Stan Parrish, Offensive Coordinator, Ball State. Parrish has helped the Cardinals build a 12-0 record this season, designing an offense that leads the Mid-American Conference in scoring and total offense. Running back Quale Lewis leads the conference in rushing (130.8 yards/game), and quarterback Nate Davis is second in passing yards (257.9 yards/game). Parrish is one of five coaches in the running for the Broyles Award, given to the top assistant coach in the nation each year.

I'm sure there will be other names out there, and as I come across candidates I will try to profile them. I thought this would be a good starting point to discuss what's next for Auburn's offense. If you have a name to throw out there, then let me know.

Fixing Auburn's Offense

2008-12-02T11:24:00.003-05:00

"This time, we're going to get somebody that understands this program. You have to understand your situation and what type of offense you can run with the type of players that you can get." Tommy Tuberville

This is a recent quote from Coach Tuberville when asked about the impending search for the next offensive coordinator. After a 5-7 season, and 36-0 loss to Alabama, it's certainly time for Auburn to return to the drawing board on offense. Tuberville has stated that he will take the entire month to conduct the search, and that the hire will probably not come until early in the new year. Tuberville also said that whoever he hires will be allowed to talk to the current assistant coaches on offense to decide if they are a good fit to remain on the Plains in 2009 and beyond.

Tuberville's openness regarding the offensive assistant coaches is not something I remember from the search that brought Tony Franklin to Auburn in December 2008. It always puzzled me that Auburn moved to a spread system, with a spread-option coordinator, but retained assistants that probably knew little or nothing about the spread offense. Most of those assistants, such as Eddie Gran (running backs), Hugh Nall (offensive line), and Steve Ensminger (wide receivers/tight ends) have been with Tuberville for awhile. Maybe Tuberville assumed that "football is football," and that the assistants could easily make the transition to the spread. Or Tuberville wanted to keep the assistants who had built relationships with high school coaches on the recruiting trail. Whatever the reason, they stayed, and the results were awful. There is good reason to believe that they struggled mightily at implementing "The Tony Franklin System." I know most of the blame is placed on Franklin, but I think some thought should be given to the role the assistants played, especially given the 1-5 record AFTER Franklin was fired midseason. Also, one should not ignore the fact that Auburn has a serious talent-drain on offense right now. It's very likely that Auburn would have finished no better than 8-4 under Al Borges (I think Auburn would have beaten Vanderbilt, LSU and Arkansas, which were all close losses against weak teams, even with the dreadful spread offense). 8-4 and a second straight trip to the Chik-fil-A Bowl sounds awfully good right about now, doesn't it?

But back to the quote that I started with. Does that sound like a man who wants to run the spread-option offense in 2009? Does it sound like a man that wants anything to do with a "system" offense? I think not. It sounds to me that Tuberville is looking for an offensive coordinator skilled at building an offense around the talents of his players rather than trying to find players that fit a rigid offensive system. Will that offense have a "personality?" Sure it will, and I bet it will look a lot more like the power-running, ball control offense of years past. I think the key here is flexibility. Tuberville wants to be more flexible from week to week, and from season to season. When injuries occur, when the talent level at a particular position doesn't develop as expected, or when playing a particular opponent, the offense must be able to adapt and come up with a gameplan that attacks an opponent's weaknesses and scores points consistently. I call this the "Humanist" philosophy of offense. Humanism is a broad category of ethical philosophies that affirm the dignity and worth of all people, based on the ability to determine right and wrong by appealing to universal human qualities, particularly rationality. Offensive humanists reject the dogmatic approaches of pure spread-option coaches (like Rich Rodriguez) or pure-anything coaches (e.g., Mike Leach's Texas Tech passing circus, or Paul Johnson's triple-option at Georgia Tech). Humanists look at the strength of his team, plus the weaknesses of his opponent, and develop a gameplan accordingly. Don't all offensive coordinators do this? Well, sort of. But you didn't see Rodriguez mix-in some pro-style offense for Michigan this year, did you? Rodriguez runs his system, regardless. And until they get the right players, they're going to struggle. The same goes for Paul Johnson. The reason Michigan went 3-9, and Georgia Tech 8-4, was not because one system is preferable to another, it was the talent on hand. Tech simply had more players that could run a triple-option offense than Michigan had to run the spread-option.

The ability to adapt requires a very skilled coach. Young players, scholarship limits, and caps on weekly practice time, all work against the offensive coordinator. That's why "system" offenses are so popular. The theory is that it's the best way to maximize the results given all of these limitations. Personally, I disagree with this philosophy. A good coach can make the humanist offense work. I think a system coach like Rodriguez actually sells out his players when he runs plays that won't work given the current talent. Sure, they are good plays, but only when Pat White and Steve Slaton are the ones running them. When Stephen Threatt and Sam McGuffie run them, not so much.

So, who are the best examples of humanist coaches? Here are a couple you might have heard of:

1. Norm Chow (UCLA). Chow is first and foremost an excellent quarterbacks coach. But he's also an excellent play-caller that builds his gameplan to take advantage of each opponent's unique flaws. He's constructed pass-happy offenses (think Ty Detmer and BYU), offenses that used running backs as pass receivers (think Philip Rivers and T.A. McClendon at N.C. State), and offenses with dynamic power runners (think Lendale White and Reggie Bush at USC).

2. Jim Tressel (Ohio State). Yeah, Tressel is the head coach, but he has always had a hand in the offense. Tressel was a run-first/run-all-the-time coach at Youngstown State and his early years at Ohio State (think Craig Krenzel and Maurice Clarrett). But he moved to a pass-first offense in the middle of this decade (think Troy Smith, Anthony Gonzalez and Ted Ginn, Jr.). Now he's back to a run-first offense, but it's with a spread-option twist (think Terrell Pryor and Beanie Wells). That's a clinic in how to: a) recruit, and b) build an offense that suits your talent.

The search will begin soon. Can Tuberville find an offensive coordinator that can recruit, teach, and gameplan? As long as he stays away from the "gurus" and rigid offensive philosophies, and focuses on a smart football coach who knows how to adapt to talent and opposing teams, Auburn will be back in contention very soon.

Predicting This Week's Big Games

2008-11-14T14:22:00.003-05:00

#10 Ohio State @ Illinois (12pm Eastern)
Ohio State is still in prime position to nab a BCS at-large bid, but it must win out and finish in a tie with Penn State for the Big Ten title (State, having the head-to-head win, would get the automatic spot in the Rose Bowl). This game is part of a larger slate of games whereby teams will seek revenge for a crucial 2007 loss. The Illini upset the Buckeyes last year behind the powerful running of Rashard Mendenhall. Ohio State still reached the BCS Championship game, but the Illini used the game as a springboard to a Rose Bowl bid. Illinois is a scrappy bunch, but I think Ohio State will cruise, 31-17.

#4 Texas @ Kansas (12:30pm)
Texas is in a tough spot: There's a good chance they will finish in a 3-way tie with Oklahoma and Texas Tech for the top spot in the Big XII South division. The tiebreaker would likely come down to whomever has the highest BCS ranking. That would probably be Oklahoma, even though Texas beat them. Texas still has everything to play for, however, including the BCS championship. Kansas has no defense. None. Zero. Nada. Texas wins another high scoring game, 44-24.

#13 Georgia @ Auburn (12:30pm)
I think this is the season for Auburn. Win this game and the Tigers get the 6 wins they need for an Independence Bowl bid. Don't laugh. Trust me, this team needs those December practices, all Shreveport jokes aside. You don't think that extra time in December 2007 helped Alabama turn into a juggernaut this year? This game is at home, and that's why it's Auburn's best hope, despite the trend favoring road teams in this series. Georgia is going to score its points, so Auburn has to find creative ways to match them. It's time for the Riverboat Gambler to make an appearance. Auburn has nothing to show for 2008, so they've probably got nothing to lose. You can't gameplan for crazy, and that's why I expect from Auburn's gameplanners this Saturday. Will it be enough? Probably not. But it will be an entertaining game nonetheless, UGA wins 27-23.

#17 North Carolina @ Maryland (3:30pm)
The good news: Maryland is 3 wins away from its first appearance in the ACC title game. The bad news: those 3 wins have to come against North Carolina, Florida State and Boston College. Maryland is unbeaten at home this year, where they've played great football and knocked off a pair of ranked teams (Cal, Wake Forest). I like Maryland's chances, provided Chris Turner gets the passing game going. Take the Terps, 24-20.

Cal @ #23 Oregon State (3:30pm)
Oregon State is 3 wins away from the Rose Bowl. Seriously. No, really, I'm not kidding. If they can beat Cal, Arizona and Oregon, then the Beavers will clinch the Pac-10 and a spot in the Rose Bowl (who would have predicted a Penn State-Oregon State matchup this past summer?). Imagine the weirdness should USC reach the BCS Championship game without even winning the Pac-10. It could happen. The Golden Bears are just 1-3 on the road this season. Take the Beavers, 30-21.

#24 South Carolina @ #3 Florida (3:30pm)
Florida is riding high and demolishing everyone they play at the moment. Since losing to Ole Miss on Sept. 27, the Gators have won 5 straight by an average score of 49-11. Yowza! Carolina, get off the tracks, the train is comin' through, Gators 41-17.

#9 Boise State @ Idaho (5:00pm)
The Broncos will travel just 224 miles to Moscow to play the Vandals. Boise State should have little trouble with their in-state rival. Boise's season probably comes down to the Nov. 28 finale against Fresno State. The race for an at-large BCS bid has taken an interesting turn with three teams essentially competing for one spot. Utah, Boise State and Ball State all remain unbeaten, but barring a dramatic change in the rankings the BCS bowls will probably take just one of these teams on selection Sunday. Utah is in the lead because of their #7 BCS ranking (.7692). Boise sits at #9 (.6783). Ball State is currently #14 (.4163), and could well end up at 13-0 and in the Motor City Bowl against the 7th-best team from the Big Ten (i.e., someone like Iowa or Illinois). Oh yeah, Broncos win big, 57-13.

#6 USC @ Stanford (7:00pm)
Huge revenge game for the Trojans. The loss to Stanford probably kept them out of the national championship game in 2007. USC's defense has been an absolute beast. Like Florida, they have responded in a big way after a late September loss. Since the Sept. 25 loss at Oregon State, USC has allowed just 23 points in 6 games, including 3 shutouts. USC closes with Stanford, Notre Dame and UCLA. Expect 3 more wins, and, at a minimum, an at-large bid to the BCS. What BCS bowl they play in, is still undecided. Trojans, 41-0.

Mississippi State @ #1 Alabama (7:45pm)
Did you know that Alabama hasn't scored an offensive touchdown against Mississippi State since 2004? Seriously. State has 2 straight wins in the series. But they'll be hard pressed to keep up with this Alabama team. Bama likes to knock you in the mouth on the opening drive with power running and a touchdown. Alabama heads into the Iron Bowl 11-0, Tide 30-3.

#8 Utah @ San Diego State (8:00pm)
I think the Utes are starting to feel the pressure. Two straight 13-10 nailbiters can do that to you. The win over a ranked TCU team is the reason Utah has the lead over Boise State for that coveted non-BCS conference spot in a BCS bowl. I worry about Utah in this game. With rival BYU looming the next week, there's every reason to think Utah might not be paying attention to the Aztecs. San Diego State is having an awful season, but they played very well at Notre Dame, and this is probably their bowl game. I think the Aztecs could surprise, so I'm taking this one as my upset special, SDSU 23-20.

Season record (since I started the blog): 13-8

Auburn-Georgia: Inside the Numbers

2008-11-14T11:25:00.005-05:00

Here's a look at how the two teams compare heading into their 112th meeting:

OFFENSE:

Georgia

22nd in Total Offense (436.8 yds/game) (#1 in SEC)

18th in Passing Offense (273.8 yds/game) (#1 in SEC)

48th in Rushing Offense (163.0 yds/game)

28th in Scoring Offense (32.6 pts/game)

Auburn

99th in Total Offense (316.2 yds/game)

99th in Passing Offense (199.3 yds/game)

61st in Rushing Offense (146.9 yds/game)

103rd in Scoring Offense (19.5 pts/game)

DEFENSE:

Georgia

28th in Total Defense (308.9 yds/game)

62nd in Pass Defense (206.3 yds/game)

13th in Rushing Defense (102.6 yds/game)

63rd in Scoring Defense (23.9 pts/game)

Despite these solid numbers, the Georgia defense is struggling right now. Their defense has allowed 38, 49, and 38 points over the last 3 games.

Auburn

26th in Total Defense (305.0 yds/game)

14th in Pass Defense (175.3 yds/game)

49th in Rushing Defense (129.7 yds/game)

13th in Scoring Defense (16.3 pts/game)

The defense has put up solid numbers, especially considering the ineptitude on offense. However, in order to help keep the pressure off this defense, the offense is going to have to score some points. I think special teams will have to be the catalyst that helps both the Auburn offense and Auburn defense. The defense needs a strong day from the Auburn punt team. Auburn ranks 1st in the SEC in net punting, and they make sure Georgia's offense consistently looks at a long field at the start of each possession. The offense needs a big day from Auburn's kick return unit. Auburn ranks 3rd in the nation in kick returns. Auburn's offense needs a short field as often as possible on Saturday.

Players to Watch:

When Georgia has the ball -

QB Matt Stafford - Stafford leads the conference in total offense (262.8 yds/game). He has a rocket for an arm, and this is both a good thing and a bad thing for the Auburn defense. Stafford will sometimes think he can thread the needle because of his arm strength, and that will lead to poor decisions and interceptions. Auburn's secondary will need to take advantage of these mistakes, either by scoring points on defense or setting up the Auburn offense with a short field.

RB Knowshon Moreno - Auburn must stop the run if they want to have any chance in this game. Moreno demolished the Tigers with 105 yards and 2 TD in 2007. Moreno has rushed for over 100 yards in 4 of his last 5 games, despite an offensive line down to just 7 healthy scholarship players.

WR A.J. Green - Green is just a true freshman, but like Alabama's Julio Jones, he has had an instant impact in Georiga's offense. Green leads the SEC in receiving yards per game (80.6). Green is also a tremendous deep threat, averaging roughly 20 yards per reception. Auburn must limit Georgia's big plays on offense, and that starts with blanket coverage of Green and Mohammed Massaquoi.

S Zac Etheridge - When your safety is the leading tackler (5.5 tackles/game), that's usually not a good sign. Etheridge will be busy again on Saturday. He must provide coverage help against Georgia's talented receivers, but he must also keep an eye on Georgia running back Knowshon Moreno (especially because middle linebacker Merrill Johnson will miss this game).

When Auburn has the ball -

Tristan Davis - Davis leads the SEC in kick returns, averaging almost 31 yards per return. If Auburn can score points on special teams, then they have a chance to pull the upset.

LB Renni Curran - Curran, only a sophomore, leads the Dawgs' defense in tackles, tackles for loss, and sacks. So, Auburn might want to consider blocking this guy.

PK Wes Byrum - Byrum made 17 of 23 kicks as a freshman in 2007. This year, however, he's converted just 11 of 18 attempts. In fact, Byrum has missed at least one attempt in each of the 7 games where he has been called on to kick a field goal (Byrum did not attempt a field goal against LSU, Vanderbilt, or Ole Miss, although he did miss an extra point in the Vandy game). Byrum needs to have a perfect day against Georgia. The points are important, but the momentum lost after a missed field goal attempt would be huge to an Auburn team with a fragile psyche.

QB Kodi Burns - This needs to be Burns coming out party. Burns has accounted for 620 yards of offense the past two games (73% of Auburn's production). He has shown he can throw (319 yards vs. Ole Miss) and run (158 yards vs. UT-Martin) for big numbers. If Burns can put it all together and consitently move the chains, then Auburn has a very real chance to win this game. Auburn cannot be one-dimensional and hope to beat Georgia. Burns must spark the passing attack (despite the absence of WR Montez Billings), and the running back combo of Ben Tate and Brad Lester need to consistently grind out tough yards. Tate's production has severely dropped off in the 2nd half of the season. He has just 27 rushes in the past 4 games, averaging only 28.5 yards per game).

Skyhawks wear orange, avoid A-Day Part II

2008-11-10T10:28:00.002-05:00

Tennessee-Martin wore new orange uniforms for their game against Auburn last Saturday. Auburn agreed to allow the Skyhawks to wear orange uniforms, and the Tigers wore all white at home for the second time in the last 2 seasons (Auburn wore white at home vs. Vanderbilt in 2007 to honor the 1957 national championship team). Having the Skyhawks in orange prevented the game from looking essentially like an A-Day game. The uniforms were still quite similar. Honestly, it looked like UT-Martin was wearing no-contact practice jerseys. Maybe they were hoping Auburn's defense would oblige and not tackle the Skyhawks' offensive players. The strategy appeared to work for the first 3 quarters of the game. Auburn finished strong, however, and won 37-20, improving to 5-5.

It's Georgia Week!

2008-11-10T10:09:00.003-05:00

Auburn and Georgia will renew "The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry" this Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Unfortunately, Auburn's 5-5 season, and the fact that Georgia's defense is allowing 28.7 points in conference play, means that ESPN and CBS have passed on televising the game. Kickoff will be at 11:30 CST, and the game will be televised by RAYCOM. CBS has selected the Florida-South Carolina game, and ESPN will cover the Alabama-Mississippi State and Vanderbilt-Kentucky games.

The image above is the game program from the 1970 Auburn-Georiga game. Auburn was caught looking ahead to its matchup with Alabama, and a weak Dawgs team stunned the Tigers, 31-17. This year's Auburn team is playing for its bowl-eligible life, so I don't think they'll be overlooking the final home game of the season. You can see many other classic Auburn posters at http://historicfootballposters.com/fp_gallery.php?school=Auburn

Dave's Power 10

2008-11-10T09:42:00.003-05:00

1. Texas Tech (10-0) - I expected a mental letdown following the victory over Texas, but the Red Raiders came to play. In fact, they scored TDs on seven consecutive drives to secure a 56-20 thumping of a very good Oklahoma State team. Tech QB Graham Harrell played a tremendous game (40-50, 456 yds, 6 TDs) while controlling the run of play (34:57 TOP, 7-9 on 3rd downs). He's the Heisman front-runner going into the match-up with Oklahoma in two weeks.

2. Alabama (10-0) - LSU gave Bama a tough game for 4 quarters, but blew it in overtime. Jarrett Lee deserves just as much credit for the win as any Crimson Tide player. Lee threw four INTs, including another pick-six before halftime that wiped out a 14-7 lead. Despite three Bama turnovers and 201 yards rushing from Keiland Williams and Charles Scott, LSU could never take control of the game. Saban has never coached an undefeated season, and has some tough challenges ahead in order to accomplish that feat (Miss. St, Auburn, Florida).

3. Florida (8-1) - The Gators remain on a mission, although not the type of mission that the Tebows embark upon to convert non-Christians. This mission has laid waste to SEC opponents and propelled the Gators into the SEC Championship game against Alabama. The Florida defense dominated Vandy, and only allowed two mop-up TD's while playing back-ups. As long as no injuries occur to key players, the Gators have a great chance to win the SEC, and possibly the BCS Title.

4. Southern California (8-1) - The Trojan defense limited a good Cal offense to 165 total yards (27 rushing), and scored enough points to pull away 17-3. If USC doesn't beat themselves - as they are prone to do - they will make a strong statement for inclusion in the BCS Title game. It would be great to see this defense go against one of the offensive juggernauts from the Big XII or even Florida. However, if Oregon State (6-3, 5-1) wins out (Cal, @ Arizona, Oregon), the Beavers go to Pasadena.

5. Texas (9-1) - Colt McCoy bounced back from the Texas Tech game and had his way (again) with Baylor (300 yds, 5 TDs). With an easy schedule to finish the season against defensive doormats Kansas (#92 Total defense) and Texas A&M (#109), the Longhorns merely need to wait for Texas Tech to slip up. If Oklahoma can win that game, the polls will determine who gets to Kansas City.

6. Oklahoma (9-1) - The video game continues as the Sooners put up 21 points in the first quarter, bringing their two week total to 56-0. Any team that establishes that kind of lead early is difficult to beat, especially with efficient QB Sam Bradford (320 yds, 4 TDs, 67% comp.) leading the offense. Both Texas Tech and Oklahoma get a bye week before their November 22nd match-up in Norman.

7. Boise State (9-0) - The Broncos bullied yet another WAC opponent on the blue turf as they spanked Utah State 49-14. The combined record for their remaining opponents is a putrid 12-16, but includes a road game against Nevada (#1 Rushing Offense; #2 Rushing Defense). If Boise gets through that challenge, it sets up some potentially interesting problems for the BCS: who gets the automatic bid - Boise or Utah; do you take an undefeated BSU or undefeated Utah as an at-large, too; or do you cop-out and take a 2-loss Ohio State team?

8. Utah (10-0) - Despite being outgained 416-275 at home, the Utes escaped with a last-minute TD to win after TCU missed two field goals in the 4th quarter. Utah managed just 45 rushing yards, while TCU RB Aaron Brown rushed for 106 yards. Home field seems crucial in the Mountain West as TCU beat BYU in Ft. Worth, and Utah beats TCU in Salt Lake. FYI: The upcoming Holy War with BYU (9-1) will take place in Salt Lake City.

9. Penn State (9-1) - Tragic finish to the Iowa game, if you're a Nittany Lions fan. After three quarters, the Lions led by 9 points, but managed only 33 yards of offense in the final quarter. PSU had an 11:44 advantage in TOP, but a late interception gave Iowa an opportunity to drive for the winning field goal. After four Hawkeye losses by a combined 12 points, Iowa finally had fortune on their side. This loss virtually eliminates Penn State from the BCS title game, but Pasadena is still within their control.

10. Ball State (9-0) - Welcome to the Power 10, Cardinals. As the fifth undefeated team, the Fightin' Dave Lettermans have had an easy time so far against a less-than-difficult schedule (previous opponents combined record of 29-56). Junior QB Nate Davis is an NFL prospect who ranks in the top-ten in QB efficiency, and Junior RB MiQuale Lewis averages 123 rushing yds/game. Combine the two, and Ball State features the #11 offense in the country. However, the real test will come in the last two games of the season against Central Michigan and Western Michigan (combined 15-4 record). Ball State needs help to reach the BCS. They would likely need both Utah and Boise State to lose in order for the Cards to receive an automatic BCS bid. It is unlikely a BCS bowl would consider them for an at-large invitation.

Dave's Power 10

2008-11-05T16:13:00.003-05:00

1. Penn State (9-0) - After getting the week off to watch previous #1 Texas fall in Lubbock, the Nittany Lions travel to Iowa City for the final road test of their regular season. Iowa is 4-1 at home this year, having only lost to Northwestern in a close game where the Hawkeyes led 17-3 late in the second quarter. Four costly Iowa turnovers kept Northwestern alive until a fourth quarter touchdown sealed the loss. Keep an eye on this game. Penn State's top-ranked defense needs to limit Iowa opportunities in order to allow the offense to score points.

2. Alabama (9-0) - Playing Tennessee and Arkansas St. can only help your defensive statistics (#2 Rushing; #4 Total; #6 Scoring). Now comes the game every Bayou Bengal fan has been salivating for since Saban's return to the SEC. LSU needs to establish Charles Scott and the running game if they hope to have any chance of beating Bama. Without a running game, the Tide will smother LSU and play ball-control with Glen Coffee (99 yds/game). Can there be magic in Tiger Stadium at 2:30 CST?

3. Texas Tech (9-0) - Fantastic game by the Red Raiders against a visibly unfocused Texas squad. Graham Harrell (#1 Total Offense with 402 yds/game) and Michael Crabtree (8 rec, 102 yds/game) continue to impress, and now have a signature victory on their resumes. The bad news is that it doesn't get any easier this week with Oklahoma State's offensive juggernaut (#7 Total Offense with 512 yds/game) visiting Lubbock. The good news is that this game should prove easier than next week's matchup with the Oklahoma Sooners (#3 Total Offense with 538 yds/game).

4. Florida (7-1) - The mission was clear: destroy Georgia and restore Gator dominance in the rivalry. Mission accomplished. In fact, it's apparently carried over to the entire SEC. Since Florida's loss to Ole Miss on Sept. 27, no team has come within 30 points of the Gators. The last month has showcased a punishing display of football from Florida, and they look poised to collide with Alabama in the SEC Championship game.

5. Southern California (7-1) - Playing any team from Washington this year is equivalent to scrimmaging Dean Road Elementary. The Trojans have actually outscored the two Apple State teams 125-0! Since losing to Oregon State on September 25, USC has allowed only 20 total points in 5 games, including 3 shutouts. Really?! That's the level of competition in the PAC-10 this year? This is quickly turning into a Michael Jackson/Jackson 5 power relationship.

6. Oklahoma (8-1) - ESPN tried desperately to market the OU-Nebraska game as a legitimate way to spend your Saturday evening in front of the TV. But once the Sooners hung a Tecmo-like 35 points on the Huskers IN THE FIRST QUARTER, I stopped checking in. We should get another yawner this week as Texas A&M's feeble defense (427 yds/game; 32 pts/game) tries to withstand the inevitable beat-down.

7. Texas (8-1) - Valiant comeback against Texas Tech, but it seemed fitting that the Red Raiders pulled that game out in the end. The Longhorns appeared sluggish and out-of-sorts throughout the game, including Heisman candidate Colt McCoy. Despite the loss, Texas retains hope of a BCS birth since the difficult part of the schedule has passed. Once OU, Texas Tech and Okie State finish beating each other up, UT could reemerge at the top of the heap.

8. Oklahoma State (8-1) - The Fightin' T. Boone Pickens recovered from the close loss to Texas by overwhelming Iowa State 59-17. If the Cowboys can put up a solid, 4-quarter effort against Texas Tech, they could pull off the upset. It will a matchup of gunslingers in Lubbock as Graham Harrell faces off against OSU QB Zac Robinson (#2 nationally in Pass Efficiency). With the high-profile aerial display expected this weekend, don't forget about Okie State RB Kendall Hunter (136 yds/game), a lightning fast runner who should balance the Cowboy attack. If Tech can't contain Hunter, I predict an OSU upset.

9. Boise State (8-0) - The Broncos currently sit at #10 in the BCS polls, with no real threat to lose another game this season. The only possible challenge will come from Fresno State in the season finale. That game will be played on the blue turf in Boise where the Broncos have won 44 straight games.

10. Utah (9-0) - BIG game against TCU this Thursday night as the Utes attempt to legitimize their lofty ranking. The Horned Frogs have already handled previous Mountain West contender BYU 32-7, and boast the #1 rushing defense. The game is in Salt Lake City, and will be only the fourth ever matchup for a ranked Utah team against another ranked opponent. The last one came in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl as #4 Utah beat #19 Pittsburgh.

Players, Not Plays

2008-11-04T17:00:00.000-05:00

Folks, there's a talent shortage on the Plains right now. Do I think there a lot of players with amazing potential on the Auburn roster at this very moment? Yes. Are they at the point of realizing that potential? Not so much. Why is that? I think it goes back to recruiting. A wise man once said, "players, not plays." For all those people out there who think it's schemes and coaches who make the difference between a winning and losing team, you're skipping over the most important part of any successful football program. Sure, coaches provide the necessary discipline and focus, and many are excellent teachers that help players become better over the course of their playing careers. However, a coach ultimately relies on the talent of his players to win games. A coach can have the most brilliant gameplan imaginable, but the if the players can't execute, then it really doesn't matter.

Auburn is missing on those 3, 4, and 5-star recruits that are supposed to become the stars of any football team. To be honest, 5-star recruits really shouldn't be part of this conversation. Auburn has never been heavy on 5-star players. Tommy Tuberville has signed just 5 such players since 2003 (Brandon Jacobs in '03, Tray Blackmon '05, Greg Smith '06, Raven Gray '08, and Jermaine Johnson '08). Contrast that with schools like USC, which seems to sign 5 or 6 in each class. Jacobs played just 1 season at Auburn, settling at third string on the running back depth chart behind Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown. Tray Blackmon is a fantastic linebacker, but he's been hurt or in the doghouse most of his career. The jury is still out on whether Smith, Gray or Johnson will become superstars. The backbone of the Auburn program lies in those 3 and 4-star recruits.

Rating high school football players is certainly an inexact science. It's difficult to forecast the development of a 17 or 18 year old player. There are just too many unknown variables: how they respond to new coaches; living away from home; injuries; and the pressure of being a full-time college student. These are things you can't forecast when watching film of a kid's high school games. There will always be highly-rated kids who never pan out, and there will always be college stars that were overlooked as high school players. The problem with Auburn, however, is that they're missing at a higher rate than normal.

Juniors and seniors are the backbone of any college program. These are the players with the most experience, the most skill development, and the most able to take leadership roles on the team. For Auburn, because of redshirts and prep-schools, those juniors and seniors come from the 2003 through 2006 recruiting classes. I have included 2003, because there is still one player from that class starting for Auburn: DT Tez Doolittle. Hard to believe that Doolittle was recruited as a running back. Doolittle was a 4-star recruit. Despite an increase in four-star players signed in the classes of 2005, 2006 and 2007, the 2008 football team appears to be short on playmakers. Here's a breakdown of Auburn's most recent recruiting classes, based on the ratings given by Rivals.com:

2003

Four-star: 6

Three-star: 17

Two-star: 3

2004

Four-star: 4

Three-star: 10

Two-star: 12

2005

Four-star: 7

Three-star: 10

Two-star: 3

2006

Four-star: 14

Three-star: 7

Two-star: 3

2007

Four-star: 13

Three-star: 12

Two-star: 2

2008

Four-star: 4

Three-star: 16

Two-star: 7

2009 (Projected)

Four-star: 8

Three-star: 17

Two-star: 0

The 13-0 season in 2004 was expected to produce a windfall of fantastic players for the Auburn program. However, despite the increase in 4-star players in '05-'06-'07, the results have not produced a team capable of competing in 2008. The four-star numbers have started to decline in 2008 and 2009, and Auburn is back to signing more three-star players. However, that may not be a bad thing. Auburn's run of success from '04-'06 was built on mostly three-star players. Perhaps those four-star players will start producing in 2009. I guess my point is that the recruting boost from Auburn's 2004 SEC Championship team has not returned dividends in 2008, which is the year that those players were expected to carry the team.

Who the heck is Tennessee-Martin?

2008-11-04T16:13:00.006-05:00

Auburn will take a much needed break from SEC action this weekend to play its homecoming game against the University of Tennessee at Martin. Who?

The University of Tennessee at Martin is located in the northwest corner of Tennessee. UTM has approximately 7,000 students. The University began as a Baptist junior college in 1900, but became part of the state university system after experiencing financial difficulties.

The university mascot was changed from "Pacers" to "Skyhawks" in 1995. The reasoning behind the "Skyhawks" moniker: (1) The first educational institution on the site of UT Martin was Hall-Moody Bible Institute. The school's athletic teams were called "sky pilots", a frontier term for preachers in that day, but perhaps the students were thinking of the glamorous flying aces of World War I; (2) During World War II, UT Junior College contracted with the Naval War Training Service to help train pilots, who completed their flight training at an airport located on the current site of Westview High School; and (3) Red-tail hawks are indigenous to the West Tennessee region. Prior to being known as "Pacers" the university's teams were called "Volunteers." The name was changed in 1971, largely due to fact that, on account of the former junior college status of the school, the teams were often referred to as the "Baby Vols." Notable alums include Pat Summitt (head coach, women's basketball, Tennessee), Leonard Hamilton (head coach, men's basketball, Florida State), and Jerry Reese (general manager, New York Giants).

The Tennessee at Martin football team has moved up to No. 20 in both The Sports Network Poll and the FCS Coaches Poll. Both polls were released Monday afternoon. The Skyhawks, 7-2 overall and 5-1 in the Ohio Valley Conference, debut in both polls last week after claiming a 31-30 victory over Jacksonville State on Oct. 23. The Skyhawks were No. 24 in The Sports Network Poll and No. 23 in the Football Championship Series (formerly Division I-AA) Coaches Poll.

You might think the photos above are of Auburn players. You'd be wrong. The Skyhawks' colors are orange and navy blue, and they wear jerseys identical to Auburn. UT Martin's uniforms are provided by Russell Athletic, and the jerseys are undoubtedly old stock from the company's prior affiliation with Auburn. The team's helmets are also virtually identical, except for the UTM logo on the side of the helmet. This Saturday's game will look more like A-Day than Homecoming.

Predictions

2008-10-31T12:13:00.004-04:00

The weekend hasn't even begun yet and a member of the top 25 has already lost (#24 South Florida). Here's a look at the weekend's biggest games.

Northwestern @ #20 Minnesota
The Gophers are 7-1, and 3-1 in the Big T-eleven. They're stuck behind unbeaten Penn State, and Ohio State (Minnesota's only loss), so I don't think a Big Ten title is in the cards. However, a New Year's Day bowl in sunny Florida is certainly in the cards. The closing schedule is manageable, with 3 of their final 4 at home. Northwestern started off strong, but has come back to earth of late. Minnesota wins, 33-23.

Wisconsin @ #22 Michigan State
Michigan State has to be on letdown alert after their emotional win in Ann Arbor. The Spartans are dueling with teams like Ohio State and Minnesota for the choice New Year's bowl slots. Reps from these bowl games will be looking for strong finishes before handing out those invites. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is fighting just to make a bowl game. The Badgers are 4-4, and they played much better on offense with Dustin Sherer at quarterback last week in a win over Illinois. Wisconsin RB P.J. Hill returns to the lineup, but the Badgers will be without TE Travis Beckum for the rest of the season. I like the upset here, Wisconsin 24-23.

Miami, FL @ Virginia
Uh, don't look now, but Virginia is closing in on a spot in the ACC Championship Game. You read that correctly. The Cavs have won 4 straight after a 1-3 start. The streak includes a 31-0 whipping of Maryland, a win over East Carolina, a win over North Carolina, and a critical road victory at Georgia Tech. At 5-3 overall, and 3-1 in the Coastal Division, Virginia owns a half game lead, and the tiebreaker, over the Yellow Jackets. Virginia has a lot of work left, however, because no team has more than 2 losses in the division. There is no margin for error. Take Virginia's momentum over an inexperienced Canes team, 17-13.

West Virginia @ Connecticut
The Mountaineers are the only unbeaten team in Big East conference play, but they are a long way from securing another title. Connecticut, Cincinnati, Louisville, and Pitt are just behind, each with only 1 conference loss. As luck would have it, those are the next 4 opponents for West Virginia. This is a big game for the Huskies, but I don't see how they stop the deadly combo of QB Pat White and RB Noel Devine. Too much speed. West Virginia, 41-23.

#19 Tulsa @ Arkansas
Arkansas has won 16 straight games in this series, but the traveling Golden Hurricanes are better than a touchdown favorite in Little Rock. Tulso is 8-0 and looking for a big non-conference win against a BCS team to help boost their computer numbers. I feel for the Arkansas defensive staff this week. Here are Tulsa's point totals this season: 45, 56, 56, 62, 63, 37, 77, 49. Tulsa's remaining schedule doesn't feature a single team with a winning record, but there is some cache that comes with beating an SEC team on the road. Tulsa will most likely face East Carolina, however, in the Conference USA Championship Game. Arkansas has lost 5 of its last 6 games (the lone win . . . at Auburn, ugh). They have been competitive, however, in each of the last 3 games. The Hogs' defense has begun to play much better. Expect them to be fired up for this game, but I think Tulsa has too much offense. Tulsa, 31-28.

#16 Florida State @ Georgia Tech
Florida State is currently tied with Maryland for the lead in the Atlantic Division. Georgia Tech, which has looked better than expected under first-year coach Paul Johnson, was upset by Virginia at home last Saturday. I think Tech will struggle to move the ball against the Noles' defense. Expect a low-scoring defensive game, won by the visitors. FSU, 16-6.

#5 Florida @ #8 Georgia (Jacksonville, FL)
Does Florida retaliate for last year's big Georgia TD celebration? Better question: who cares? Well, CBS probably will, so be prepared to endure references to the 2007 game ad nauseum. It's week 2 of the SEC Elimination Series, designed to whittle down the championship contenders. Last week, Georgia knocked off LSU. This week, either the Bulldogs or the Gators will receive that 2nd loss that takes them out of the national championship conversation. I like the Gators because they have a better run defense than Georgia. The Gators allowed LSU just 80 yards rushing, while Georgia allowed LSU to pile up 188 rush yards. If Florida can take away Knowshon Moreno and make the Bulldogs one-dimensional, then they will live to fight another week in the BCS top 10. Florida, 27-23.

#1 Texas @ #6 Texas Tech
College football royalty versus the nouveau-riche. The Longhorns are a clear-cut #1, and they've played a daunting schedule thus far. The Red Raiders are about to begin a similar stretch of games that will test their championship mettle. The question for Texas Tech has always been: Is their defense good enough to help their offense out? This year, I think it is, However, Texas' offense has been other-worldly this season. Colt McCoy is completing over 80% of his passes. That is insane. The Texas defense has given up it's share of points this season (see Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State), but the offense has been so good that the margins of victory have remained comfortable. I think you'll see more the same this Saturday. Tech will get its points, but Texas will get more, a lot more. Texas 51-37.

#10 Utah @ New Mexico
Why is this game on the list, you ask? Because Utah might be looking ahead to next week's home date against TCU. Utah is dueling with Tulsa and Boise State for that non-BCS-conference automatic berth in the BCS. Utah has 2 critical games remaining, TCU and BYU. That's why I think this trip to Albuquerque is dangerous. New Mexico is only 4-5, but they did beat Arizona earlier in the season. This is also the final home game of the season for the Lobos, and teams have a way of taking their game to the next level on Senior Night. Utah holds on, barely, 31-30.

Inside the Numbers

2008-10-31T11:48:00.003-04:00

Here's a look at how Auburn and Ole Miss compare heading into this Saturday's game.

OFFENSE:

Total -

UM 377.6 yds/game (55th)

AU 288.5 yds/game (109th)

Passing -

UM 215.6 yds/game (60th)

AU 151.5 (106th)

Rushing -

UM 162.0 yds/game (48th)

AU 137.0 yds/game (66th)

Scoring -

UM 27.2 pts/game (50th)

AU 18.8 pts/game (102nd)

DEFENSE:

Total -

UM 345.1 yds/game (55th)

AU 294.2 yds/game (17th)

Passing -

UM 234.3 yds/game

AU 166.0 yds/game

Rushing -

UM 110.8 yds/game (29th)

AU 128.2 yds/game (51st)

Scoring -

UM 24.3 pts/game (59th)

AU 15.7 pts/game (13th)

ODDS & ENDS

Ole Miss ranks 11th in the country in tackles-for-loss (7.88 per game).

Ole Miss ranks 26th in the country in sacks allowed (1.25 per game).

Auburn is first in the SEC (#5 in nation) in kickoff returns (26.54 yards per return).

Robert Dunn is first in the SEC (#2 in nation) in punt returns (21.44 yards per return)

Antonio Coleman leads the SEC in sacks/game and tackles-for-loss/game

Dave's Power 10

2008-10-27T09:22:00.003-04:00

1. Texas (8-0) – Colt McCoy was out of his mind against Oklahoma State (84% completion, 391 yds), but the Cowboys still had a chance to win that game. The key was a good running game (229 yds) that kept the ball away from McCoy long enough to keep the score close. Next up for the Longhorns is yet another top-10 match-up of undefeated teams when they visit Texas Tech.

2. Penn State (9-0) – Gutsy win in the Horseshoe last week. With only three games remaining, the Nittany Lions will be favored in all of them. Despite their offensive struggles in Columbus, the Penn State attack still features balance (226 rushing yds/game; 233 passing yds/game). Combine that with marquee DE Aaron Maybin (11 sacks), and Joe Pa can almost taste Miami.

3. Alabama (8-0) – Tennessee once again displayed no offense (something we see a great deal of at Auburn), and the Tide slowly buried the Volunteers in Knoxville. John Wilson continues to limit his errors (3 INTs in 176 attempts) enough to allow the defense and running game to control the game.

4. Southern California (6-1) – One way to contain the Trojans is to force turnovers and protect the ball. Arizona almost stole a win in Tucson with this strategy, but the superior USC defense clamped down and denied any Wildcat comeback. Once again, the remaining schedule looks extremely favorable for another BCS trip.

5. Texas Tech (8-0) – It was a video game in Lawrence last Saturday, but that's par for the course in the Big XII these days. The Red Raiders sit atop the offensive rankings (#1 Passing; #2 Total; #3 Scoring), but now must face their biggest challenge . . . so far. Expect a shootout in Lubbock. Tech is 20-60-1 overall versus the Longhorns, and haven't won at home in the series since 2002.

6. Florida (6-1) – The Gators absolutely pasted a decent Kentucky squad, and now demonstrate a fierce defense (top-15 in all major categories) to compliment their special teams. All eyes will be on Jacksonville this weekend to see how many times CBS shows last year's footage of Georgia's team rushing the field after that touchdown. Revenge should be sweet.

7. Oklahoma (7-1) – Speaking of video games, the Sooners scored 28 points during the last 6:30 of the 1st half to take a 55-28 lead into halftime. Oddly, only 10 total points were scored in the 2nd half of that game. No Big XII team has a top-40 defense, so any evidence of defensive competence merits attention.

8. Georgia (7-1) – LSU continues to underachieve, and Georgia jumped out early on the Bayou Bengals to win in Baton Rouge. Three INTs (two returned for TDs) put the Bulldogs too far ahead in a game resembling a Big XII contest. It will be a game of stars in Jacksonville to determine the SEC East.

9. Boise State (7-0) – Only two more home games on the blue turf remain for the Broncos, but one is the finale against Fresno State. The "Fly in the Ointment" lives on after surviving in San Jose.

10. Utah (8-0) – After an off-week, the Utes travel to New Mexico before coming back home for TCU. Given Utah's mediocre offensive numbers, the Horned Frogs' defense (#1 Rushing; #2 Total and Scoring) will be ready. Texas Christian DE Jerry Hughes (12 sacks) should make things difficult for Brian Johnson & Co.

Defending the Spread

2008-10-21T09:23:00.004-04:00

This Thursday's game between Auburn and West Virginia will feature two teams that run the spread offense. West Virginia has employed the spread since 2002, and it shows. They have perhaps the best run-threat spread QB in the country, Pat White. West Virginia's spread offense is diverse, well-organized, and lethal. The Mountaineers have had several years to recruit players uniquely suited to the spread offense. Auburn, using the spread for the first time this year, is still learning the nuances and continuing the transition from a traditional power offense. Auburn's defense should be well prepared for this game because they get to see the spread offense every day at practice. This leads to an interesting question: How do you stop the spread? There are three areas you need to be good at on the defensive side of the ball:

Defensive Team Speed
Excellent Open Field Tacklers
Gap Responsibility and Pursuit Discipline

There are certainly more complex aspects of defensive gameplanning that teams employ to stop the spread offense, but it's really too much to get into whether an odd front is better than an even front, sliding to strength or away from strength, slanting, angling, cover-2, cover-3, combo coverage, etc., is the best approach. I'll leave that up to Paul Rhoads and his defensive assistants. Let's start with these three fundamentals that every team needs in order to stop a spread offense.

1) Defensive Team Speed
It's obvious when you look at the landscape of both the college or high school game that players like Patrick White (West Virginia), Noel Devine (West Virginia), Armanti Edwards (Appalachian State), Terrelle Pryor (Ohio State), and Percy Harvin (Florida) have required defenses to have fast, athletic players to match the speed of these great athletes. When I say "speed," I don't mean 100 meter dash speed per say, but football speed, which is usually an athlete that not only can run fast in a straight line, but can also run fast, stop, then re-start again at a rapid rate. Change of direction speed, the ability to accelerate, decelerate, then re-accelerate at a rapid pace. Is a player born with this? Some are for sure. Can a player work on this type of speed? Absolutely. It's called change of direction training, and such training facilities as The Parisi Speed School and Velocity Training teach it around the country. Parisi calls it "Deceleration Training."

Tommy Tuberville, I think, has been ahead of the curve in this respect for several years. Tuberville has long preferred smaller, faster, linebackers that can quickly cover ground from one sideline to the other. Auburn's linebackers are more the size of a what a traditional safety would be. This focus on speed and athleticism, rather than size and brute strength, has enabled Auburn's defense to match up well with an opposing offense's playmakers. The advantage was certainly obvious in upset wins over Florida in 2006 and 2007.

2) Excellent Open Field Tacklers

The one big thing a spread offense trys to exploit is the need for defenses to be in open space, often with even numbers of offensive and defensive players in a particular section of the field; this takes away the classic "gang tackling" concept that so many defenses preach. It's much harder to gang tackle when you're spread all across the field; isolating areas of the field is what spread offenses are looking for. Working on open field, individual tackling is of the utmost importance for defenses. The ability to break down in the open field, make good contact, and wrap-up as you bring down the offensive player is very important for a team's "2nd level" players (linebackers and lefensive backs).

One very simple part of being a good open field tackler is teaching the defender to have their head up, and eyes open right up to impact (Chris Spielman always refers to this as "see what you hit, and hit what you see"). This may sound simple, but you would be surprised how many players close their eyes right before contact. It's a natural human reaction to close your eyes before any contact, and football is no different, but you need to change that if you want players that are good open field tacklers.

Angles of pursuit are also critical. This is not just the game saving angles of pursuit; the intermediate angles of pursuit, and what to do when you get there (tackle and then strip), are also very important in stopping the spread offense. Players must always take a proper angle and be ready to deliver an open field blow.

3) Gap Responsibility and Pursuit Discipline
The great Denver Broncos teams of the late 90's gave defenses fits with their zone blocking scheme and the ability of Terrell Davis to cut back on over pursuing defenses. In 2008 you're seeing college and high school spread offense zone teams do the same thing to over-aggressive defenses who insist on flying over the top to get the zone hand-off, only to get burned by either the tailback cutting back against the pursuit, or the QB (who's now the best athlete on the team and one of the fastest) tucking it on the zone read and bootlegging the other way. The ability of a defense to be disciplined in gap responsibility and pursuit starts in practice. It needs to be worked on in individual, group, and team settings.

It all starts with confidence in the team that all 11 players believe in each other (i.e., if I do my job then the team will benefit). Don't confuse this with not being an aggressive defense; it just needs to be emphasized to defensive players that the pursuit angle (on any play run away from that player's position) should never pass the ball carriers "inside pocket" or armpit at that player's level. Once the play passes a player's level, they need to fly to the ball, because a cutback at that point is no longer a concern at that player's responsibility level. Now if the ball is coming "play side" (right at the defender), they still need to keep their outside arm free and never give away the corner, believing in teammates that pursue from the backside using the correct angles will be there soon to help out.

One of the best defenses that does all of the above has been South Florida, especially in their games against West Virginia the past two years. USF's defensive staff would be a great group to go visit and clinic with if you need to stop a West Virginia-style, run-dominant, spread offense. Hopefully Coach Tuberville has good contacts with Jim Leavitt in the wake of their 2007 game. Also, defensive coordinator Paul Rhoads, in his previous stint at Pitt, has a lot of experience with West Virginia's spread offense. Most notably, Rhoads' Panthers shut down the West Virginia offense in the regular season finale in 2007.

When watching the Auburn-West Virginia game on Thursday night, look to see if Auburn's defense is making open-field tackles and limiting the cutback plays from West Virginia's offense. These are two major keys if Auburn hopes to come away with a win.

Dave's Power 10

2008-10-21T08:03:00.003-04:00

1. Texas (7-0) - Another convincing win over a good Big XII team. The Longhorns are walking the walk so far. Here's a funny stat: Texas scores the same amount of points/game as their defense allows in rushing yards (48.14).

2. Penn State (8-0) - Michigan played a good game early, but couldn't withstand the second half avalanche. For this reason, I place the Nittany Lions in front of Bama, and also due to the Tide's struggles at home against Ole Miss. PSU put away Michigan with 39 unanswered points.

3. Alabama (7-0) - I watched this game hoping for a Houston Nutt miracle, and it almost happened. The Tide couldn't put the Rebels away, but hung on to win. Bama's passing offense (103rd nationally) needs to somehow compliment their rushing offense (209 yds/game) in order to remain unbeaten. That's two consecutive nail-biters following the Georgia beat-down.

4. Southern California (5-1) - Everyone thought, "There's no way USC wins by 42 points! I'm taking Wazzu to cover." But when it was 41-0 at halftime, we understood the error of our ways. A slightly resurgent Arizona squad (#9 scoring offense, #6 passing defense) could provide some resistance this Saturday in Tucson.

5. Oklahoma State (7-0) - Last week's Baylor game was the first single digit performance for the Cowboy defense (aka the step-child unit of the team). Zac Robinson, Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant are the straws that stir OSU's drink, and they need to get plastered in order to beat Texas in Austin.

6. Oklahoma (6-1) - Sam Bradford (#4 nationally in total offense) out-dueled Todd Reesing (#7 nationally). The Sooner defense has given up 76 points the last two games. Well, at least they have the 4th best offense in the nation right now (544 yards/game) . . . because they're going to need it.

7. Florida (5-1) - The Gators thrive on field position due to their exceptional return man, Brandon James (21 yds/punt; 29 yds/kickoff). Add to that their ability to hold onto the ball (#3 nationally in turnover margin), and Florida puts tremendous pressure on opponents.

8. Texas Tech (7-0) - The Red Raiders were an amazing 10 of 12 on 3rd down against Texas A&M. That helps when your defense is so average (#51 nationally). Here comes the gauntlet that should either justify their style, or re-expose Tech as the perennial video game team.

9. Boise State (6-0) - The Broncos play in a weak conference against weak opponents. Yeah, yeah, we've heard all that before. But Boise dominates the WAC so well that they deserve recognition, especially when they've beaten a Pac-10 team on the road.

10. Utah (8-0) - The Utes are a product of a weak conference, and fortune (i.e., Michigan's transition to Rich Rodriguez's system). However, their days in the Power 10 may be numbered with upcoming games against TCU and BYU. Fortunately, both games are in the friendly (and non-alcoholic) confines of Salt Lake City.

This Weekend's Key Games

2008-10-17T10:38:00.002-04:00

Auburn doesn't play this Saturday, but that doesn't mean there aren't some excellent college football games worth paying attention to.

Wake Forest (4-1) @ Maryland (4-2), 12pm Eastern

It's a noon kickoff in College Park (so, Jason, that means it's 9:00am in Berkeley). Maryland has been very Jekyll and Hyde this year (losing to Middle Tennessee, beating Cal, losing to Virginia). The Terps are strong at home. Wake has been relying too much on its defense to win games. If the Deacons can't generate more offense, then I like Maryland to pull the mild upset.

UMD 27

WFU 23

Purdue (2-4) @ Northwestern (5-1), 12pm Eastern

Northwestern fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last week against Michigan State. The Wildcats are still in the Big Ten race, however. Taking care of business against a struggling Purdue team is necessary in order to keep pace with Ohio State and Penn State. Purdue is playing for its bowl-eligible life.

NWU 36

PU 33

Texas Tech (6-0) @ Texas A&M (2-4), 12pm Eastern

Did you know that A&M has the #1 pass defense in the Big XII? That probably has to do with the fact that they haven't played: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, or Texas Tech. I don't think the Aggies have a prayer against the Red Raiders' offense.

TTU 41

TAM 20

Vanderbilt (5-1) @ Georgia (5-1), 12:30pm Eastern

It seems like a panic move to me, switching quarterbacks after 1 loss. But that's what Vanderbilt is going to do this Saturday. I think the rose is off the bloom for the Commodores, who will probably come crashing back down to earth. They'll still reach a bowl game, but only because Duke is still left on the schedule. That said, the game will stay close. Georgia isn't very explosive on offense right now.

UGA 24

VU 14

Ole Miss (3-3) @ Alabama (6-0), 3:30pm Eastern

Each of the last 3 meetings between these two teams has been settled by 3 points. Ole Miss has played well on the road this year, nearly upsetting Wake Forest and taking down Florida. The key question is whether Ole Miss can generate a running game against Alabama's defense. Expect another closely fought SEC game, but expect Alabama to improve to 7-0.

UAT 20

UM 12

Ohio State (6-1) @ Michigan State (6-1), 3:30pm Eastern

UPSET SPECIAL. I like the Spartans in this game for one reason: Javon Ringer. Michigan State will use Ringer to wear down the Buckeyes' defense and keep the ball away from Ohio State's offense. Ohio State might be looking ahead to next week's game vs. Penn State, too.

MSU 26

OSU 24

Kansas (5-1) @ Oklahoma (5-1), 3:30pm Eastern

Kansas' improbable 2007 run to the Orange Bowl was helpe by the fact that they did not play Texas or Oklahoma. If Kansas wants to return to a BCS bowl game this year, then they will have to do it by beating the top teams in their conference. The Jayhawks are catching Oklahoma at the wrong time - immediately after a loss to rival Texas. I think Oklahoma will come out firing. Kansas' defense is as good this year (torched by South Florida; torched early by Iowa State), either. That's not a good combination.

OU 41

KU 23

Michigan (2-4) @ Penn State (7-0), 4:30pm Eastern

Expect Michigan's 9-game winning streak in this series to come to an end. This could get ugly.

PSU 38

UM 10

Mississippi State (2-4) @ Tennessee (2-4), 7:00pm Eastern

First team to score wins. You think I'm kidding? Both teams have above average defenses. Both teams have galactically bad offenses. If you like punting, and if you like "field position games," then this matchup is for you.

MSU 3

UT -1

LSU (5-1) @ South Carolina (5-2), 8:00pm Eastern

Were you as surprised as me to see that Carolina is 5-2? How did that happen? Most experts think this will be a very close game. I guess they base that on LSU's ugly road loss at Florida. I happen to think the opposite. LSU is very very very mad. LSU is going to stuff USC's offense all night. I like LSU in a rout.

LSU 31

USC 13

Virginia Tech (5-1) @ Boston College (4-1), 8:00pm Eastern

Tech's defense will have their work cut out for them trying to stop Matt Ryan and the Eagles' offense. What's that, you say? Tech beat Ryan's Eagles last year. And Matt Ryan is gone. Oh, then why in the heck is BC a 3-point favorite in this game?

VPI 23

BC 17

Missouri (5-1) @ Texas (6-0), 8:00pm Eastern

Game of the Week. Conventional wisdom would say that because Texas is coming off a big win vs. Oklahoma, and because Missouri is coming off a stinging loss to Oklahoma State, that this game has the makings of a very close matchup. I don't think so. Texas hung 45 on the Sooners defense. Yikes. Missouri's defense isn't nearly that good. Chase Daniels and the Tigers have a fantastic offense, but they didn't exactly light it up against the Cowboys last week. Missouri can't keep pace for 60 minutes.

UT 37

UM 20

Just Stop It, Clemson. Stop It!

2008-10-17T09:58:00.006-04:00

Really, Clemson? Are you serious? "Tiger Walk?" As if the similarities between Clemson and Auburn weren't already numerous, Clemson's interim football coach, Dabo Swinney, has decided to add one more. Clemson will start a new tradition this Saturday. Two hours before kickoff against Georgia Tech, Clemson players will walk through the parking lot on their way to the stadium. The event will be called "Tiger Walk." Man, that sounds familiar. Where have I heard of that?

Oh, yeah, AUBURN already has something called "Tiger Walk." It's been around since the 1960s. So, what possessed Coach Swinney to come up with such a ridiculous copycat idea? Maybe he just wants to emulate Auburn's program as much as possible. Things are definitely on the right track: (1) crappy quarterback play (Check! Yeah, I'm talking about you, Cullen Harper. Oh, crap, tell your dad to stop crying); (2) Three losses already, despite a preseason top-10 ranking (Check!); (3) fire a head coach named Bowden that never lived up to expectations (Check!).

For those who don't know, Swinney was a former wide receiver at Alabama from 1989-1992. Swinney also started his coaching career at Alabama. He was hired at Clemson in 2002 after the Tide cleaned house by firing Mike Dubose.

[As an aside, Swinney's real name is William Christopher. The nickname Dabo came from his older brother, who would say "Dabo" in an effort to call his baby brother "that boy." Ahhhh, Pelham, Alabama.]

[Interim] Coach Swinney, is "Tiger Walk" really going to fix the problems you have at Clemson? I doubt it. Why ruin the uniqueness of Clemson (i.e., touching Howard's Rock as you run onto the field) by copying the tradition of another school? Hopefully your successor will bag this idea and move on to more important things, like winning games.

Will Auburn's Spread Offense Deliver?

2008-10-14T15:28:00.012-04:00

Tommy Tuberville has 81 victories in his 10+ seasons as the head coach at Auburn. He has 4 Western Division titles, 1 SEC Championship, and 5 bowl victories. He is arguably the 3rd best coach in Auburn history, and at 54 Tuberville has a great chance to surpass Pat Dye (99 wins, 4 SEC championships) for second place on the all-time wins list at Auburn (Shug Jordan's 176 wins are likely out of reach). However, as Shakespeare once wrote, "What's past is prologue." That means what has already happened merely sets the scene for the really important stuff, which is the stuff our greatness will be made on. At least that's what I take Antonio to mean in Shakespeare's "The Tempest."

For Tuberville, the prologue is that he has steered Auburn successfully through the turmoil of Terry Bowden's removal as coach in 1998. Tuberville has restored Auburn as a yearly contender for the conference championship and January bowl berths. He has run a clean program and stayed away from the illegal recruiting practices that ultimately ended Pat Dye's tenure as coach. He has shown that Auburn can win, and win consistently, in modern college football: a perfect 13-0 season in 2004. Perhaps most importantly, he has shown that Auburn can be the dominant program in the state: 6 straight wins over Alabama. Where does Tuberville go from here? What's past is prologue.

One thing, and one thing only, eludes Tommy Tuberville: a consensus national championship. Relatively speaking, it is the only rung left to climb on his career ladder. Everything he has accomplished at Auburn, the good seasons, the bad seasons, that perfect season, have created a coach that wants more than anything to build a national championship team. For a generation of Auburn fans, raised on the success of the 1980s, and who have enjoyed the teams of the current decade as adults, that national championship is also the last hurdle to clear. The desire for a national title, however, has only increased the pressure the fans bring to bear on Tuberville. The success of the past 10 seasons, while appreciated, is no longer good enough for many fans. Tuberville has raised the bar. He knows it, too. That is why Tuberville has taken the leap into the spread offense. Despite his preference for a more conservative brand of offensive football, he is willing to do what he thinks is necessary to bring a national championship to Auburn.

Tuberville is often referred to as the Riverboat Gambler. Maybe a magician is a better description. Michael Caine once described, in a movie, the elements of a magic trick: “Every great magic trick consists of three acts. The first act is called The Pledge: the magician shows you something ordinary, but of course, it probably isn’t. The second act is called The Turn. The magician makes his ordinary something do something extraordinary. Now, if you’re looking for the secret . . . you won’t find it. That’s why there’s a third act, called The Prestige. This is the part with the twists and turns, where lives hang in the balance, and you see something shocking you’ve never seen before.”

For Tuberville, a coach with a 25-20 record at Ole Miss, the pledge was the promise to return Auburn to its winning ways, compete for SEC championships, and ultimately bring a national championship to the Plains. The turn occurred in 2000, when Tuberville led Auburn to a surprise Western Division title. It has continued with an unprecedented run of success, including no fewer than 9 wins in each of the last 4 seasons, and 6 straight wins against Alabama. He has made the ordinary into the extraordinary. So why are Auburn fans so bitter, so cynical, after a 4-3 start in 2008? We're all waiting for the prestige. We want Tuberville to give us the final act. We want him to finally pull the rabbit out of the hat, make the woman he sawed in half whole again, reappear after making himself disappear. We want him to bring a national championship to Auburn. It is the shocking ending that none of us has seen before, but want so desperately to experience.

The spread is both the prestige of Tuberville's career and a magic trick in itself. It's a microcosm of Tuberville's career. He has endeavored to climb that final rung, and the spread offense is the means by which he intends to do it. Tuberville has made the pledge: recruit better athletes and use the spread to create an offense the equal of his vaunted defenses. The turn? Well, that hasn't happened yet. Therefore, the prestige is still off in the distance. But if Tuberville could deliver on his promise to restore Auburn among college football's elite programs, then we should not be so quick to doubt his ability to pull the rabbit out of the hat with the spread offense. What's past is prologue for Tuberville. Everything he has experienced, especially the 2004 season, has led him to this moment. He has staked his Auburn legacy on the spread offense.

Many fans have perhaps given up on the 2008 season. With 3 SEC losses, and a difficult remaining schedule, some Auburn fans can't bear to watch. But if you ignore the record, ignore the wins and the losses, and simply watch the games, you might see something special happen this October and November: the turn. Auburn has five opportunities to work on making the ordinary do something extraordinary. That's what I'll be looking for. Perhaps the 2008 season will become the prologue for greater success in 2009 and beyond.

The "Bubble Screen": The Spread's Outside Running Play

2008-10-14T12:49:00.004-04:00

So, what is a bubble screen?

It's a pass thrown behind the line of scrimmage to a receiver or running back who's already in an extended formation. The term "bubble" refers to the pass catcher bubbling back away from the line of scrimmage to give the quarterback a better angle to throw to him. The goal is to have the receiver catch the ball in front of him, with his shoulders facing forward. At the same time, the receivers outside of him are blocking down the field.

Bubble screens are nothing new, even though it's become a fashionable buzz phrase. They're essentially glorified sweeps, so they're usually called in running situations. When are bubble screens most effective? They work best when the opposition is caught between sound run and pass schemes. When a defense puts eight players in the box against seven blockers -- five offensive linemen, a tight end and a fullback -- yet tries to keep two safeties back, it can be susceptible. The bubble screen is one of the components of the spread offense that really makes things hard on the defense, placing them between a rock and a hard place in trying to decide on perimeter support for the run (especially against the zone read or triple option), and how many players to commit to "the box," as outside linebackers and strong safeties need to cover receiver #2 (the inside twin receiver), taking them out of the box. A bubble screen is merely a passing play designed to act as an outside running play.

Another component of the bubble screen that has become even more interesting is when offenses fake or act out the bubble screen, making the perimeter defense freeze (if only for a split second), which may be the difference on an inside zone read run going to the house, or for a 6 yard gain as the box defenders are all covered by blockers and perimeter help cannot support the inside play.

Executing a successful bubble screen is easier said than done. Many coaches at clinics describe the bubble screen throw by the quarterback like turning a double play in baseball between the second basemen and shortstop. First, the quarterback has to catch the snap cleanly, then rotate his body correctly, whether to his throwing arm side or his backside. Usually some kind of zone fake hand-off precedes the throw, so a clean fake between the QB and running-back must occur (no dislodging the ball during the fake) if the case requires it.

The pitch and catch of the bubble screen requires a lot of work between the quarterback and receivers. The timing must be precise. The quarterback is usually throwing into a high traffic area. The receiver is also navigating through traffic which can cause a loss in concentration. The success of the bubble screen often depends on how much repetition can be done during the offseason.

Remember, a bubble screen (based on ball placement on the field, hash-marks, formation, etc..) could be thrown as short as 10 yards or as long as 25 yards. All of these distances need to practiced, over and over again.

Receivers need to be aware of the rules of a forward pass vs. a lateral on bubble screens. They should always assume the bubble screen is a lateral (thrown behind the line of scrimmage, this also allows for the release of O-linemen downfield, a big part of the bubble screen).

A well-executed bubble screen can pick up four or five yards, and sometimes much more.

"Hello, Computer."

2008-10-14T11:57:00.005-04:00

We are less than a week away from the unveiling of the first BCS rankings. Last weekend's games provided a huge shakeup in the four computer polls that make public their numbers each week. Texas' victory over #1 Oklahoma, losses by Vanderbilt and Northwestern, Missouri's loss to Oklahoma State, and LSU's drubbing at the Swamp made for some interesting plot twists as we near the mid-point of the college football season.

Sagarin Ratings
1. Texas (6-0)
2. USC (4-1)
3. Penn State (7-0)
4. Alabama (6-0)
5. Oklahoma (5-1)
6. Florida (5-1)
7. Georgia (5-1)
8. Boise State (5-0)
9. Oklahoma State (6-0)
10. Ohio State (6-1)

Biggest surprise: 1-loss USC outpacing the Nittany Lions and Crimson Tide.
Biggest beef: BYU only 13th, and Ball State only 19th.

Billingsley Report
1. Texas (6-0)
2. Alabama (6-0)
3. USC (4-1)
4. Oklahoma (5-1)
5. Ohio State (6-1)
6. Penn State (7-0)
7. Georgia (5-1)
8. Florida (5-1)
9. BYU (6-0)
10. LSU (4-1)

Biggest surprise: LSU still in the top 10, and only 2 spots behind Florida, after that beatdown.
Biggest beef: Texas Tech comes in at #23.

Massey Ratings
1. Texas (6-0)
2. Alabama (6-0)
3. Utah (7-0)
4. USC (4-1)
5. Oklahoma State (6-0)
6. Virginia Tech (5-1)
7. North Carolina (5-1)
8. Texas Tech (6-0)
9. Boise State (5-0)
10. Penn State (7-0)

Biggest surprise: Most of the top 10, actually. This is by far the strangest of the 4 models.
Biggest beef: BYU is 26th, and is 8 spots behind 3-2 Duke. Really? LSU drops to 37th

Colley Matrix
1. Texas (6-0)
2. Alabama (6-0)
3. Penn State (7-0)
4. Utah (6-0)
5. Oklahoma State (6-0)
6. Michigan State (6-1)
7. Boise State (6-0)
8. Ohio State (6-1)
9. USC (4-1)
10. Ball State (7-0)

Biggest surprise: The 6-1 Spartans at #6. They host Ohio State this Saturday.
Biggest beef: Oklahoma drops a long way to #13; still ahead of #19 BYU, however. Didn't USC beat Ohio State? I remember reading that somewhere.

All signs point toward a Texas-Alabama 1-2 ranking next weekend when the first BCS numbers are released, assuming Texas defeats Missouri and Alabama defeats Ole Miss. For Auburn fans, that's great news, sort of. You see, never, in the history of the BCS, have the teams ranked in the top two spots upon the release of the first BCS poll of the season both reached the national championship game in January. The odds of a Texas-Alabama matchup in Miami are slim. Whether it's Texas or Alabama who will fall from the top spots is anyone's guess.

Dave's Power 10

2008-10-13T19:11:00.002-04:00

1. Texas - I agree with the pollsters on this one. UT beat the previously-thought superior Sooners by simply outscoring them, and Muchamp's defense thwarted Sam Bradford just enough to win. BTW, I don't miss Will Muchamp at all, thanks to Paul Rhoads. Despite the loss, he's managed to keep the Auburn defense respectable.

2. Penn State - The Nittany Lions deserve this ranking. They've not only won games, they've dominated their opponents. PSU ranks first in the Big Ten in rushing yards (235 yds/game) and total defense (259 yds/game). It's amazing what good coaching will allow. After hosting Michigan, they travel to the Horseshoe to face Ohio State to possibly determine the Big Ten championship.

3. Alabama - After an off-week, the Tide returns to face a familiar foe: Houston Nutt. I hope he frustrates the living hell out of Bama and orchestrates another huge SEC road upset. Did anyone imagine that Bama would be the last remaining undefeated SEC team?

4. Texas Tech - The Red Raiders get a yawner vs. Texas A&M this week, but then the waters get REALLY rough (@ Kansas, Texas, Okla. St., @ Oklahoma). With an average defense (#64 nationally), it'll be tough to simply outscore everyone.

5. Oklahoma State - Great win at Mizzou last week. Zac Robinson is 3rd nationally in passing efficiency, and RB Kendall Hunter averages 143 yds/game, also 3rd nationally. In the Cowboys first true hostile environment (Wash St. was at neutral Qwest Field), they looked impressive.

6. USC - Despite the hiccup in Corvallis, the Trojans are still a dominant team. Against Arizona State the defense picked off 3 passes (neutralizing 3 Sanchez INTs) and smothered a second straight conference opponent. If they continue this type of performance, USC will be in line again for the BCS title game. Stop me if you've heard THAT before.

7. Florida - In a 3-Act performance, the Gators dominated, allowed LSU to creep back, then slammed their foot on the Tigers' throats with 51 points. I can't remember a non-DiNardo-led LSU team allowing that many points. Of course when has Urban Meyer ever let up? There was definitely a car wreck on Gainesville, but it's LSU who's looking for a rental.

8. Oklahoma - It might be unfair to drop them this far, but there are other undefeated teams playing good football right now. Besides, as the Big-12 lays waste to itself, the Sooners have a chance to move right back up. The OU defense will need some work in order to withstand all those high-octane offenses, though.

9. Brigham Young - If BYU plays a conference game and noone's there to watch, does it make a sound? Another ho-hum game against New Mexico nets a victory. But keep an eye out for this Thursday night's game versus TCU. If the Cougars hold true to form (no turnovers, no sacks allowed), they should handle the Horned Frogs.

10. Utah - Nothing really pops out about this team, other than a better-than-average defense (#7 scoring, #8 rushing). Given their favorable schedule, it appears that the season finale against BYU in Salt Lake City will determine who goes to the Fiesta Bowl.

The Zone Read - The Spread's "Bread and Butter"

2008-10-10T13:08:00.003-04:00

This is part 1 of a series designed to help fans better understand the spread option offense.

The spread offense begins with a no-huddle approach with the quarterback in the shotgun formation much of the time. The fundamental nature of the spread offense involves spreading the field horizontally using 3, 4, and even 5-receiver sets (some implementations of the spread also feature wide splits between the offensive linemen). The object of the spread offense is to open up multiple vertical seams for both the running and passing game to exploit, as the defense is forced to spread itself thin across the field (a "horizontal stretch") to cover everyone.
There are many forms of the spread system. One of the extremes is the pass-oriented version typified by Texas Tech, North Texas, Missouri and New Mexico State. This version employs multiple spread sets and is heavily reliant on the quarterback and coaches being able to call the appropriate play at the line of scrimmage based on how the defense sets up.

The other extreme version is the Spread Option used by West Virginia and Michigan, Oregon, and Appalachian State. Despite the multi-receiver sets, the spread option is a run-first scheme which requires a quarterback that is comfortable carrying the ball, a mobile offensive line that can pull and trap effectively, and receivers that can hold their blocks. The essence of the spread option is misdirection. Effectively, this is the old triple option except that it utilizes spread sets. In particular, the quarterback must be able to read the defensive end and determine whether he is collapsing down the line or playing upfield contain.

A third, rare version of the spread offense is the Pistol Offense which is used by Nevada and some high schools across the nation. The Pistol Offense focuses on using the run with various offensive players, and calls for the quarterback to line up about three yards behind the center and take a short shotgun snap at the start of each play.

The first entry breaks down the "zone read," the most important running play in the spread option offense.

The zone read is considered by most spread offense coaches as the "bread and butter" run play of this offensive system. It's comparable to the buck sweep in the "Wing T"or the ISO in the "I formation."Lets breakdown two important areas of the zone read that make it so effective:

1) The Quarterback "cancelling out" the backside (DE or OLB) line of scrimmage threat
2) Counting the 'numbers' in the box and favoring blocking angles

1. A key component of the shot-gun spread offense is the ability of the quarterback to "cancel out" the backside Defensive End (DE) at the mesh point with the Running Back.

At the critical point where the quarterback has to decide whether to keep the ball or hand it off (the mesh point), the defensive end (or possibly an outside linebacker) responsible for backside contain has to make one of two decisions.

Decision #1 is to crash or knife down the line of scrimmage for the running back

Decision #2 is to "stay home" and box out the quarterback for a potential keep.

If the QB reads decision 1, he keeps it for a backside bootleg run or triple option pitch progression. If the QB reads decision 2, the QB hands it off to the running back (and fakes the bootleg run), thus "cancelling out" or blocking in effect the backside end.

2. One thing the zone read allows is the offense to dictate "numbers" and "angles" during the pre-snap period. This is why 90% of spread offense teams go with a no-huddle. It makes the defense show their hand in regards to alignment, allowing the offense to change the play based on "lucky or ringo," "rip or liz" . . . coaches and player lingo for go 'right or left' with the play.

If the defensive alignment shows more defender to the left (using the centers crotch as the mid-line) in the box, then the call at the line would be "ringo," meaning we're zoning right, thus the QB will be reading the left defensive end on the zone read.

This number is usually a 4 vs. 3 defenders scenario that determines the call. If the numbers are even (say 4 left and 4 right), a lot of coaches teach their quarterback to read the defensive front alignment, looking to run to the "1 technique" tackle side as opposed to the "3 technique" tackle side, looking for better zone blocking angles.

If you don't want to take that path with your quarterback, you can also pick the side in an even defensive alignment scenario based on your team's preference, wide side of the field, or player strength (or a defenders weak side), or audible to the bubble screen if appropriate.

Mastering these two areas of the shot-gun zone read can really go a long way in producing some serious offensive production.

Arkansas @ Auburn

2008-10-10T10:50:00.005-04:00

Arkansas will be playing their fourth straight game against a top-20 team this Saturday when they visit Auburn. Arkansas hopes to avoid going 0-4 in that streatch of games, after losing to Alabama, Texas, and Florida. This game marks the first visit by Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino since his one season as Auburn's offensive coordinator in 2002. Petrino's '02 offense averaged 29.8 points per game (and crossed the 50-point total twice), and included budding stars like Jason Campbell, Carnell Williams, Ronnie Brown, Courtney Taylor, and Anthony Mix. Those numbers are a far cry from this season's Auburn offense.

When Arkansas has the ball:

Petrino's offense is not as pass-happy as many experts would lead you to believe. Petrino has always favored a strong balance of run and pass. Petrino has also had some very good running backs in his offenses, including the aformentioned Williams and Brown, and also Michael Bush and Eric Shelton at Louisville. Petrino's featured back at Arkansas is Michael Smith. Smith rushed for 133 yards and a score last week against Florida. Smith will also be used in the passing game. He's caught 18 passes through the first five games.

Petrino's quarterback is Casey Dick. You might remember Dick as the middle-man between the center and Darren McFadden last year. Dick's job was to take the snap, get the ball to McFadden (or #2 running back Felix Jones), and get out of the way. Such is the life of a quarterback for Houston Nutt. For the first time in his career, Dick is being asked to burden a heavy load in the passing game. It's not surprising that Dick has struggled. Dick's struggles, however, are not entirely of his making. The Arkansas offensive line has not been able to keep Dick off the ground. Dick has been sacked 18 times this year, and 10 times in the last two games alone.

The underlying philosophy of Petrino's offense is this: attack the weakness of the defense with the same play, but disguise the play through the use of multiple formations. If Auburn's recent losses to LSU and Vanderbilt are any indication, Arkansas will look to attack the soft spots of Auburn's zone secondary, and use misdirection to catch Auburn overpursuing against the run. Petrino will attempt to confuse the defense with multiple formations, hoping to catch the Tigers worrying too much about the formation, rather than the weakness Petrino is seeking to exploit. Vanderbilt consistently caught Auburn overpursuing the run, and the Commodores were able to gain yards when Auburn had no back-side contain. The soft spot in a two-deep zone defense is called the "honey hole." It's the gap between the cornerback and the safety, along the sideline. Arkansas might look to find receivers in that gap, and when the safety moves up to close the hole, Arkansas will attempt to use double-moves and go for the homerun. It will be up to Casey Dick to make accurate throws against an Auburn defense that is sure to use pressure and blitzes to thwart the passing game.

When Auburn has the ball:

Man, does anyone really know? If Tuberville has told the offensive coaches anything this week, it's this: just get me to 20 points. With Auburn's staunch defense, 20 points should be enough to win this game. Much is made of Tuberville's incredible record when Auburn scores 30 or more points (36-0 since 2001). But the success rate is almost as high when Auburn scores merely 20 or more points (57-7 since 2001). The difference is stark when Auburn fails to reach 20 points. Auburn is just 13-18 since 2001 when scoring less than 20 points (and 2 of those wins were this year, 3-2 vs. MSU, and 14-12 vs. Tenn.).

Given Arkansas' troubles against the run, Auburn will certainly look to focus on the ground game. Whether it will take the form of the spread-option's zone read running play, or the under-center power formations used early on against Vanderbilt, is anyone's guess. If Auburn wants to make the spread work, then the quarterback needs to be Kodi Burns. Burns' threat as a runner keeps the defense honest, not allowing them to focus solely on running back Ben Tate.

Auburn needs to stay balanced, and therefore the passing game will need to step up against Arkansas. If Burns does play significant minutes, look for the throws to be short and safe; quick slants, bubble screens, out-routes. Auburn should avoid having Burns throw into traffic over the middle. He is still developing his accuracy, and given the fragile psyche of the offense, turnovers are to be avoided at all costs.

Prediction:

Auburn 24

Arkansas 14

Ensminger To Call Plays

2008-10-10T10:01:00.002-04:00

ESPN.com's Chris Low discusses Steve Ensminger's second chance at calling plays for the Auburn offense.

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/sec/0-1-577/Ensminger-gets-another-shot-at-Auburn.html

Around the Web . . .

2008-10-10T09:47:00.003-04:00

SI.com's Stewart Mandel offers his take on Auburn's struggling offense:

It shouldn't be entirely surprising that Auburn would struggle in its transition to the spread. Most teams do. Look at Michigan. Look at Florida in Urban Meyer's first season. Missouri's spread is a machine now, but that first season Gary Pinkel made the change was pretty rough. (Chase Daniel took over the next season.) But I never imagined Auburn would struggle this bad, in large part because the Tigers did surprisingly well in the Chick-fil-A Bowl with just three weeks of practice. In hindsight, maybe I should have put more stock in the fact they were playing Clemson.

I don't buy that Franklin "doesn't understand SEC defenses." He may have come most recently from Troy, but he did spend four years at Kentucky. I do think it's been clear since the spring that he's not particularly confident in either of his quarterbacks. It's fair to assume that Kodi Burns would be a more natural fit due to his running ability. He must be light years behind in the passing game for Franklin to stick with Todd when he's been so unproductive and appears to be injured.

I know many are calling for Tommy Tuberville to simply scrap the thing and go back to the I-formation, as he did early in the Vanderbilt game. That reeks of desperation to me. He obviously implemented the scheme with long-term success in mind and there's no reason to think the Tigers can't eventually get there. In the meantime, however, if they want to avoid a disastrous '08 campaign, the coaches need to find some sort of middle-ground solution, whether it means making more use of Burns, mixing in more power running, simplifying the playbook, etc.

The Auburn Plainsman's Sports Editor Alex Scarborough-Anderson gives his two cents:

News came out of Sunday’s scheduled press conference — Tony Franklin is still the offensive coordinator.
Who would have thought two months ago that Tuberville would have to say that? Nonetheless it was news. The Plainsman isn’t the only one reporting this. Check Rivals or the O-A News.
The offense is struggling. There is little doubt about that.
Is it Franklin’s fault?
Well that’s where it gets sticky.
People want heads on pikes.
Auburn hadn’t lost to Vanderbilt in 13 consecutive tries. The Tigers came out well on offense; funny thing was, it wasn’t Franklin’s offense.
Earlier in the week, Tommy Tuberville said the Tigers weren’t running the “spread offense” but instead the “Auburn offense.”
What exactly does that mean?
Well apparently it goes something like this — do everything that has worked for Auburn over the last decade to jump out to a 13-0 lead and then stop, slam on the clutch, shift gears and go with the spread.
It’s as if Tuberville said “I’ve got the first quarter and then the rest is yours Tony.”
The first two touchdowns were a thing of beauty.
Line up and run the ball down their throat and finish them off with solid passing. It was Running Back University all over again.
It was what we know.
What we don’t know is the spread. Yet.
The spread offense doesn’t have a toe tag on it, but many are ready to call a time of death.
Fans keep hearing “give it time,” but patience isn’t a virtue many Auburn fans possess.
Dreams of an explosive offense conjured up in the off-season were soon turned into nightmares of the old “three yards and a cloud of dust” offense of old.
What’s worse for Tuberville and Franklin is how far the offense has regressed.
Take out play calling quandries and you’re left with dropped passes, penalties and missed field goals.
Even when plays are executed correctly, the offense can’t seem to point the barrel of the gun away from their foot.
The Tigers have committed 352 yards in penalties this year — that’s 106 yards more than opponents have handed Auburn.
It’s an offense with issues.
The prescription?
Your guess is as good as mine.
My antidote: a good nights rest followed by a hot pot of coffee and a serious discussion about where the offense is headed.
Maybe that and a few Prozac.

Mark Murphy of InsidetheAuburnTigers.com chronicles Tuberville's reasoning behind the Franklin firing:

http://auburn.scout.com/2/799042.html

Former Hoover High coach Rush Propst says Auburn's coaches never truly bought into the spread offense:

http://www.al.com/auburnfootball/birminghamnews/index.ssf?/base/sports/1223540122228880.xml&coll=2

ESPN.com's Pat Forde says that SEC defenses are the entire reason why so many SEC teams are struggling offensively:

SEC: Pointless
The Southern spin on low-scoring SEC football has been that it's attributable to all those fast, ferocious defensive players in the league. That's only a partial explanation, failing to fully cover the fact that more than half the conference ranks in the bottom 50 nationally in total offense.

The following are not attributable to great SEC defense:
Tennessee's 13 points against Northern Illinois. Auburn's 27 points against a Southern Mississippi team that subsequently gave up more to Marshall and UTEP, respectively. Arkansas' zero first-quarter points on the season -- including against Western Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe. Mississippi State's 14 against Louisiana Tech and seven against Georgia Tech. South Carolina's 23 points against a Wofford team giving up an average of 27 points per game to FCS competition.

Fact is, it has been a bumpy season for the following five SEC playcallers:

Things seemed so promising for Tony Franklin and the spread offense. Then the season started.Tony Franklin, Auburn. He might have been the most-hyped offensive coordinator hire of the year, but the hype has dissolved into gripes. The Tigers are 104th nationally in total offense and averaging just 18.7 ppg, which if it holds would be their lowest scoring output in 10 years. They've scored just five offensive touchdowns in four SEC games, as the no-huddle spread offense that made a cult hero of Franklin has ground to a halt. Franklin has shouldered the blame -- but his job will be in jeopardy if there isn't a second-half turnaround.

Dave Clawson, Tennessee. The Volunteers are riding a three-game streak of offensive ineptitude that has produced 31 points -- their lowest three-game total in 14 years. If their 18 ppg average doesn't improve, it would be the lowest in 34 years. Clawson was the former head coach at high-scoring Richmond, but he might be headed back to the FCS level if Tennessee continues to flail offensively. Amazing how ordinary the Vols' offense has looked over the years when not coordinated by David Cutcliffe.

Bobby Petrino, Arkansas. Brother Paul Petrino has the offensive coordinator title, but Bobby has always maintained control of the script and the play-to-play strategy. The shocking thing is the first-quarter bagel for a guy whose game-opening scripts were almost unstoppable in his high-scoring days at Louisville. Biggest problem is the No. 107 national ranking in rushing.

Team Spurrier, South Carolina. Steve Sr. said before the season that he was turning over the play-calling duties to Steve Jr. Then we saw that the Head Ball Coach would sooner trade in his visor for a bowler than trade in total control of his offense -- even to kin. So he gradually took back the play sheet in the first few weeks. Regardless of who has been dialing up the calls, South Carolina in Year 4 under Spurrier still looks more like a Lou Holtz operation than the expected offensive powerhouse.

Woody McCorvey, Mississippi State. Head coach Sylvester Croom has resolutely -- at times defiantly -- stuck by McCorvey through years of fan criticism. Now, with the league's lowest-scoring offense and no victories against FBS competition, Croom's clout with first-year athletic director Greg Byrne could be tested if Croom wants to retain McCorvey for a sixth season. State hasn't had a single 40-point game since 2002, by far the longest streak in the league.

By The Numbers

2008-10-09T10:42:00.004-04:00

Oh, what's that you say? There's an Auburn game this Saturday? The season isn't over? Perfect opponent at the perfect time for Auburn: Arkansas. C'mon, folks, let's get our "glass half full" on. A conference game, at home, against a bad team, that's not televised on the ESPN family of networks. Things have become so crazy lately with the Vandy loss and the Franklin firing that fans have forgotten this is "Bobby Petrino revenge week." You remember Petrino, right? The guy waiting on the tarmac for that Air Lowder jet in 2003. Here's a look at the relevant stats for Auburn and Arkansas:

Total Offense:
ARK - #73 (352.2 yds/game)
AUB - #104 (309.1 yds/game)

Rush Offense:
AUB - #60 (128.5 yds/game)
ARK - #107 (100.6 yds/game)

Pass Offense:
ARK - #33 (251.6 yds/game)
AUB - #103 (160.7 yds/game)

[Just as an aside, Alabama is ranked #104 and Ohio State is ranked #105]

Scoring Offense:
AUB - #103 (18.6 pts/game)
ARK - #109 (17.4 pts/game)

Now that we've gotten that ugliness out of the way, here are the defensive stats. Man, if you didnt' think Auburn's defense was carrying the team this year, wait until you see these stats.

Total Defense:
AUB - #7 (248.8 yds/game)
ARK - #87 (388.0 yds/game)

Rush Defense:
AUB - #14 (94.5 yds/game)
ARK - #107 (208.4 yds/game)

Pass Defense:
AUB - #13 (154.3 yds/game)
ARK - #32 (179.6 yds/game)

Scoring Defense:
AUB - #2 (11.2 pts/game)
ARK - #112 (38.0 pts/game)

Seriously, this is fantastic news for a struggling Auburn offense. The Razorbacks are allowing OVER 200 yards rushing per game and 38 points per game. Alabama dropped 40+, and Texas dropped 50+, on the Hogs' defense. If Auburn is going to pick up some momentum for the 2nd half of the season, THIS is the game to do it. They need a boost of confidence before playing West Virginia, Ole Miss, Georiga and Alabama (I do not think they need a boost to play Tennessee-Martin, however). When you dig deeper into the numbers there are some interesting trends Auburn must reverse in order to have a successful October and November. The first area is 3rd down.

As everyone knows, 3rd down is perhaps the most critical down in football. If you can't convert on 3rd down, or stop the other team from converting, odds are you won't have a very good team. While Auburn is fantastic at stopping opponents on 3rd down (#1 in the nation - opponents convert just 18.3% of the time), the offense is just about the worst team in the country at picking up the needed yards on 3rd down (#112 - converting only 29.7% of the time). Auburn's offense has a great chance to improve on 3rd down, because Arkansas is only 95th at stopping teams on 3rd down (44.1%). Conversely, the Auburn defense should continue to dominate, because the Hogs' offense is just 72nd in the country on 3rd down (37.9%).

A big reason for Auburn's failure on 3rd down: the passing game has not come up with the big plays to move the chains. Auburn QBs have completed 64.8% of their passes on 1st down, and completed 52.9% of their passes on 2nd down. But the number drops to 45.7% on 3rd down. Yikes. Auburn has attempted 46 passes on 3rd down this year, and they have picked up just 14 1st downs through the air. That's not good enough.

Let's not blame everything on the passing game, though. The running game has struggled, too, and nowhere is running the football more important than the "red zone" and the 4th quarter. This becomes obvious when you separate Auburn's rushing stats by quarter. In the 1st quarter, Auburn has gained 251 yards (4.25 yds/rush). In the 2nd quarter, 230 yards (3.9 yds/rush). Auburn has 240 yards (3.69 yds/rush) in the 3rd quarter. The 4th quarter, however, is remarkably lower. Traditionally, Auburn's offensive line has punished the opponent into submission, allowing for huge gains that finish off games. Not this year. In the 4th quarter Auburn has rushed for only 170 yards (despite having more rushing attempts than any other quarter) and a paltry 2.54 yards per rush average.

The rushing offense suffers a precipitous decline in yards per attempt in the red zone, too. From Auburn's 1-20 yard line, the Tigers average 3.51 yds/carry. The average is 4.46 yds/carry from Auburn's 21-30 yard line. From the Auburn 40 to the opponent 40, it's 3.05 yds/carry. From the opponent's 39-21 yard line, Auburn averages 4.24 yds/carry. The red zone, however, is a different story. Inside the opponent's 20 yard line, Auburn averages just 2.15 yds/carry. This, more than any other reason, is why Auburn is #111 in red zone offense. Twenty drives into the opponents red zone have yielded 9 TD, 4 FG, and 7 drives with zero points. Another reason this weekend's game is a chance to do something about the crappy red zone offense: Arkansas is 107th in red zone defense. The Hogs have given up 16 scores in 17 opponent trips into their red zone (and 13 were TD). Pair that with Arkansas' porous rush defense, and Auburn should be able to run the ball in for touchdowns this Saturday.

The other areas in which Auburn must improve are penalties and turnovers. Nothing pisses me off more than penalties and turnovers, and I've been pissed off a lot this season. Auburn is 101st in the country, averaging 7.83 penalties/game (for an average of 58.6 yards). Contrast that to Auburn in 2007 (6.2 penalties/game) and 2006 (5.5 penalties/game). Yeah, I don't like where that's headed, either. Arkansas isn't much better. The Hogs are 66th in the country, averaging 6.4 penalties/game (for 42.4 yards). Expect a lot of yellow hankies this Saturday.

[This is a home game, but I would like to point out that Auburn has played 2 road games, committing 12 penalties at Miss. State, and 11 penalties at Vanderbilt. Folks, those were the two easiest road games Auburn will have this year, and they came unglued in both. That doesn't bode well for trips to West Virginia, Ole Miss and Alabama, where the environment will be much more hostile.]

Turnovers have continued to plague Auburn, too. Auburn is 85th in the country with a -3 turnover margin (9 takeaways, 12 giveaways). Arkansas is 114th with only 3 takeaways and 11 giveaways (-11 turnover margin). Compare that to unbeaten Vanderbilt, who continues to make their living on turnovers (i.e., they don't turn it over, but they force opponents to cough up the ball). The Commodores have a +9 turnover differential.

So, there you have it. Auburn has some things to work on. I'll have more on the Arkansas-Auburn game tomorrow. Also, I'll have my "upset of the week" and predictions for this weekend's other games.

Not So Fast, My Friends

2008-10-09T09:14:00.003-04:00

According to ESPN.com's Chris Low, Auburn is keeping the spread offense. Maybe I was wrong about Tubs and the spread after all. This story just keeps getting weirder by the minute. If it has nothing to do with the underlying system, then we have the makings of a personality clash between Franklin and Tuberville. Or perhaps between Franklin and the other offensive assistants, all of whom were coaching for Auburn prior to Franklin's arrival.

Call me a cynic, but I don't think a new play-caller is going to fix this mess. Of course, it couldn't hurt, either. A wise man once said, "players, not plays." What does that mean? It means that players win games, not schemes, formations, personnel packages, or trickeration. Auburn is struggling on offense because they don't have the PLAYERS to run the spread, not because they aren't running the right plays at the right time. Play-calling isn't going to change things. Recruiting is the ultimate answer. Tuberville knew it would take time to get the right players to run the spread. Maybe he bought into Franklin's guru status too much, because he seems to have forgotten that a transition period would be needed. Auburn will have to use some damage control in order to keep the 2009 recruiting class in order. Other SEC schools, and Alabama in particular, will certainly try to capitalize on Franklin's firing.

Also, you can probably waive goodbye to the Chris Todd era. Todd was "Franklin's guy," and his installation as the #1 quarterback always seemed forced, as if Franklin and Todd were a package deal. Will Todd go down as one of the lamest quarterbacks of the last 40 years of Auburn football? Probably. He's right up there with Daniel Cobb and Gabe Gross.

As I mentioned yesterday, when you run the spread, you need a quarterback that can be "The Man." The player most people think can be "The Man" for Auburn is Ray Cotton. The recent struggles on offense, and Franklin's firing, have put Cotton's commitment to Auburn in doubt. According to this article, Cotton is still locked in for Auburn: http://www.oanow.com/oan/sports/college/article/auburn_quarterback_commitment_not_backing_off/40256/

End of an Error?

2008-10-08T16:50:00.008-04:00

It never looked right, did it? Always in the shotgun. Four and five wide receivers. An offensive line that rarely imposed its physical will. In short, it wasn't Auburn football. Auburn is a place for hard-nosed football and physical toughness. It's not a place where basketball on grass should be played. It's not a place where the offense lines up against its opponent only to stand up again like a pack of meerkats wondering what to do. In short, Auburn is no place for the spread offense.

I have nothing against the spread offense. I enjoy watching other teams that run the spread (Missouri and Kansas immediately come to mind). However, I never enjoyed watching Auburn run the spread. From the day Tony Franklin was hired, Auburn attempted an extreme makeover that required an immense amount of faith and patience from fans. Sure, the surprise-factor was enough to squeak out a bowl win against Clemson. But after a full spring and summer working on the new offense, Auburn came up empty in the two biggest games of the season thus far. The spread was designed to score more points and take pressure off of the defense. In reality, the defense was forced to work that much harder. To its credit, Paul Rhodes' crew has played admirably, and should be entirely credited with the team's wins against Mississippi State and Tennessee.

Auburn is a place for big running backs, bruising offensive linemen, athletic tight-ends, and gutsy quarterbacks. With the exception of Ben Tate, the 2008 Tigers have none of these characteristics. Would Auburn have eventually turned the corner and made the spread a dangerous high-powered offense? We will never know. Auburn will almost certainly return to a traditional offense based on power running, play-action passing, and time of possession.

When Tommy Tuberville decided to make the switch to the spread offense and hire Franklin, he was mostly praised for thinking outside the box and keeping with the changing times in order to keep the Auburn program on top. The problem is this: the spread is ALL about the quarterback. Think about the elite teams that run the spread. The most recognizable player on that team is the quarterback. Pat White of West Virginia. Chase Daniel of Missouri. Sam Bradford of Oklahoma. Chris Todd and Kodi Burns are not ready to be the focus of a major college offense. Why does that matter? Because Auburn is almost NEVER about the quarterback (the notable exception being Pat Sullivan). Auburn has always looked to a running back to put the team on his broad shoulders and be the face of the program: Joe Cribbs, James Brooks, Bo Jackson, Brent Fullwood, Stacey Danley, James Bostic, Stephen Davis, Rudi Johnson, Carnell Williams, Ronnie Brown, and Kenny Irons. Whether it was the wishbone, the flexbone, the power "I," whatever the hell Terry Bowden ran, etc., it's about the running back. That's the Auburn way, "our way." The quarterback manages the game, maintains order in the huddle, oozes leadership, and makes a clutch throw here and there. Admit it, you have so much more respect for Brandon Cox now that he's gone.

Does Auburn have someone that can carry the team for the remainder of the season? Yes, they do. Ben Tate. It's time for the offensive line to get their "pissed off" back and run some people over for Ben Tate. Auburn may struggle to win games the final two months of the season, but aren't you looking forward to see what Auburn can accomplish when they do it "our way?" Kodi Burns may one day become the type of quarterback that can lead Auburn to a championship. Burns should do it, however, running an Auburn offense.

Um, Wow. Just, Wow.

2008-10-08T16:13:00.005-04:00

Tommy Tuberville fired offensive coordinator Tony Franklin today. Tuberville has not announced who will be calling the plays during this Saturday's game against Arkansas. Tuberville did state that he would be taking a larger role in the offensive game planning, however.

I guess that confirms my hypothesis that Tubs hated the spread offense. I thought he'd wait until the end of the season to pull the plug. Guess not. So, the only men on the coaching staff with experience as an offensive coordinator? That would be offensive line coach Hugh Nall and tight ends coach Steve Ensminger, who were the co-coordinators during the ill-fated 2003 season. If you remember, Tuberville asked Nall/Ensminger to keep the system implemented by Bobby Petrino during the 2002 season. The results were less than spectacular, and Nall returned to coaching the offensive line for the 2004 season. Ensminger, who called the plays on gameday, was the quarterbacks coach at the time, but was moved to tight ends upon Franklin's arrival (even though there are no tight ends in the spread). I don't expect to see Nall/Ensminger 2.0.

Hey, what's Al Borges doing these days?

Excuse me while I go step outside and let out a giant "WTF!"

Weird Science

2008-10-06T14:34:00.004-04:00

Another crazy week in college football means we're one step closer to the first BCS rankings. Last week I touched on the strangeness of having teams like Northwestern and Vanderbilt appear near the top of the rankings for a couple of the computer models that comprise the BCS. Well, thanks to Tony Franklin (and a bye week for Northwestern) we can continue the insanity. For example, Wes Colley and Kenneth Massey are giving us a preview for who they think will be participating in this year's SEC Championship game. We can also add a new crazy team to the list: Ball State. The Cardinals are 6-0, but have no standout wins. They did, however, beat Navy and Indiana. Their toughest remaining games are Western Michigan (5-1) and Central Michigan (3-2). Ball State could be 13-0 after the MAC Championship game . . . and still end up in the Motor City Bowl. Here are the computer rankings through the Oct. 4 games for four of the six computer rankings that comprise a portion of the BCS rankings.

Colley Matrix

1. Alabama

2. Vanderbilt

3. Missouri

4. Texas

5. Utah

6. Oklahoma

7. Penn State

8. Northwestern

9. Ball State

10. Virginia Tech

Surprises: Well, Vandy, Northwestern, and Ball State, for starters.

No respect: BYU is 25th.

Richard Billingsley

1. Alabama

2. Oklahoma

3. LSU

4. USC

5. Texas

6. Missouri

7. Ohio State

8. Georgia

9. Utah

10. BYU

Surprises: How about USC at #4, despite its loss to Oregon State?

No respect: Vanderbilt at #23, Texas Tech at #28, Ball State at #41, and Northwestern at #52.

Massey Ratings

1. Vanderbilt

2. Alabama

3. Missouri

4. Utah

5. Oklahoma

6. Northwestern

7. Penn State

8. Texas

9. Virginia Tech

10. Georgia Tech

Surprises: Uh, Vandy in the top spot. Massey apparently likes their win over Auburn more than Bama's win at Georgia. Imagine where Ga. Tech would be had they held on at Va. Tech.

No respect: LSU at #22 (hey, they beat Auburn, too).

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

1. USC

2. Oklahoma

3. Alabama

4. Penn State

5. Texas

6. Missouri

7. Florida

8. Georgia

9. Boise State

10. Texas Tech

Surprises: Where do we begin? How about at the top, where USC is still #1.

No respect: 5-1 Michigan State at #26, one spot BEHIND 2-3 Oregon State.

Dave's Power 10

2008-10-06T14:04:00.002-04:00

1. Oklahoma - Apparently this is the offense Auburn coaches wanted to emulate when they switched to the spread. Too bad you can't buy it for $3,000 out of a car trunk. That's the shopper's mentality in Auburn these days.

2. Missouri - Another spread offense that works. Who knew? Chase Daniel is playing lights out . . . so far. Against middling defenses, Mizzou merely out-scores their way to a win, but the next two opponents can light up the scoreboard AND play defense.

3. Alabama - Jury's still out on the Tide. Kentucky hung in to the end, but a defensive TD made the difference. Bama runs the ball effectively (14th nationally), but passing is still a struggle (104th nationally). Defense wins championships, but everyone plays defense in the SEC.

4. LSU - A 5-week gauntlet begins with Florida in Gainesville, and finishes with Bama in Baton Rouge. If the Bayou Bengals come out unscathed, they'll have earned it. They need to avoid costly TO's in order to do it, though.

5. Penn State - In old-school Nittany Lion fashion, they've manhandled opponents so far (#1 in the Big Ten in every major defensive category). The next three games will determine whether they're for real or not. PSU is the Big Ten's lone hope for a national title.

6. Texas - Have the Longhorns played anybody? No. Will they? Oh, yes. Five of the next six opponents are ranked in the top-17. Good luck with all that.

7. BYU - The Cougars control their own destiny in regards to the BCS. Not only do they score points (41.2 pts/game), but they keep QB Max Hall upright (5th nationally in Sacks Allowed).

8. USC - It's amazing how one brain fart can impact the entire season. The Trojans are still a jug-jug-juggernaut (#4-ranked defense), so they need to remain at 1-loss to return to the BCS title game.

9. Texas Tech - An absolute beast on offense (583 yds/game, #2 nationally) . . . against glorified high school teams. Still give up a ton of yards on defense (336 yds/game, #49 nationally). Live by the sword, die by the sword.

10. Florida - Should have won that Ole Miss game, but the Gators will be the Gators. Slight edge over Georgia due to the fact that the Bulldogs got pummeled by Bama in Athens. This week's LSU game is a must-win if UF has any shot at reaching Atlanta.

An Open Letter to Tommy Tuberville

2008-10-06T09:14:00.004-04:00

Coach,

I have now had a couple of days to digest our performance against Vanderbilt (i.e., calm down). There are a few issues I'd like to address:

1. Spencer Pybus. I'm sure Spencer is going to be a fine player one day, but he was a 1-star recruit who chose Auburn over Duke. Should he really be on the field as a true freshman? I don't think so. Yes, Spencer is very fast, and probably very athletic, but Spencer has a problem with play-action and misdirection. You see, Coach, Spencer wants to get the quarterback so badly that he bought every single play action fake Vandy ran Saturday. Spencer, as the man assigned to protect against the bootleg, would run himself right out of the play . . . over and over and over again. I hope you saw this, too, when watching the game film on Sunday. Coach, if Spencer is the best we can do right now, we might need to hit the recruiting trail a little harder for linebackers.

2. Rotating the Quarterbacks. I had no idea that the "Tony Franklin System" came with the tools to shatter the confidence of not one but two quarterbacks on the football team. Sure, teams have rotated their quarterbacks successfully in the past. But here's why it's not working for you: (a) Kodi Burns doesn't make an appearance until the 2nd half, when the ship is already taking on water. No pressure, Kodi, but we're sinking fast, so head on out there, and "good luck." By the way, if you screw up, you're right back out of the game in favor of Christie Todd. Coach, why not let Burns have a series in the first half, when the pressure is off, and which allows him to throw a curve at a Vandy defense that's already behind 13-0; (b) Why not use Kodi Burns in the redzone? See, we used to have this guy, Dameyune Craig, and he'd come in for Pat Nix in the redzone, and it worked. Imagine that. No one on this planet (or any other planet) thinks Chris Todd is going to keep the ball and run during the zone-read play. No one. Not even Vanderbilt. You should never ever ever ever run that play when Chris Todd is in the game. And because that play is a staple of the spread offense, well, you're starting to get my drift here.

3. I thought you had to "marry" the spread. I seem to remember someone saying something about marrying the spread; that if you convert to the spread offense, then you have to convert completely and take the good with the bad, until your players are comfortable with the system. Oh, yeah, that was ESPN's Chris Spielman. Guess what, I think he's on the money with this one. He said that you can't "date" the spread. I'm not even sure we're dating anymore. The spread is calling, but you're just letting it go to voicemail, Coach. What gives? You can't have it both ways. Either run the old offense, or run the spread offense. You're doing a disservice to the players and fans by trying to have it both ways. To quote the venerable Sean Connery: "you're playing both sides!" Asking Tony Franklin to implement and play-call a power offense is like asking a NASCAR driver to become a jockey at the Kentucky Derby - sure, it's a race and the goal is to finish first, but he has no idea how to get it done. I think you liked the uptick in recruiting that converting to the spread has brought, but I don't think you like the spread offense . . . at all. I think you hate it. I can see how much disdain you have for it by your expression on the sideline. It's killing you. Those Miami teams didn't run a fad offense during the 80s. You didn't need gimmicks when you won at Ole Miss with Stewart Patridge as your quarterback. Here's the problem, though: you change coordinators too much. If you axe Franklin, how many top coordinators are going to lineup to become your next fire (I mean hire)?

4. Wes Byrum. Coach, he's not right in the head anymore. Mister Clutch now misses chip-shot field goals and extra points. Honestly, you could randomly pick 12 drunk fratboys from the student section, and 11 of them would successfully kick an extra point (and that's with deck shoes on their feet).

5. Penalties. This might be the single most frustrating thing for Auburn fans. I think there were 10 penalties in the 3rd quarter alone. Coach, we can take a sucky offense (see 1998). We can take losing (see Barfield, Doug). But one thing Auburn fans can't handle is an undisciplined team that commits the same stupid mistakes over and over again. I would probably buy your argument on the holding penalties - I know what you're going to say: Chris Todd is (a) a statue, and (b) the football is his "precious" that he doesn't want to get rid of. Ok, holding is going to happen when that guy is in the game. But the false starts, that's another story. There is no way the spread offense is more vulnerable to false starts. Auburn never had this problem in the old offense. What gives? This is a discipline problem, and that falls to the offensive coordinator.

6. On a positive note. Coach, I don't want to be all Debbie-downer, so I would like to commend you on a couple things. First, the white shoes. Thanks for bringing those back. I like the white shoes, especially with the white uniforms. It was kinda neat to see #12 Jeff Burger back under center for the Tigers. I also want to give a shout-out to Ben Tate. Coach, Ben played his ass off, again. He's the only guy pulling his weight this year on offense. I hope he has the immunity idol when it's time for tribal council at this week's offensive meetings.

Well, that's all for now, Coach Tuberville. Good luck against Arkansas.

Vandy-Auburn Previews From Across the Web

2008-10-03T10:52:00.003-04:00

SI.com's Cory McCartney didn't see this primetime matchup coming:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/cory_mccartney/10/02/auburn-vanderbilt/index.html

ESPN.com's Chris Low says Vandy is ready form primetime:

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/sec/0-1-525/Johnson-proving-you-can-win-at-Vanderbilt.html

ESPN.com's Chris Fowler says Auburn should be on upset alert:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/columns/story?columnist=fowler_chris&id=3621516

FoxSports.com predicts an Auburn win:

http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/story/173612/Fearless-Predictions-for-Week-6

Would You Like To Play A Game?

2008-10-01T09:43:00.004-04:00

The first BCS poll doesn't come out until October 19, but that doesn't mean people are ignoring those all important computer polls. The human polls, for the most part, are relatively similar in how they rank the top teams. With some variation, the AP poll, the USA Today poll, and the Harris Interactive poll all have Oklahoma, Alabama, LSU, Texas, and Missouri as the top 5 teams in the nation. The computers? Not so much. At least not yet. Four of the six computer polls are available to the public (the other two keep their data private until the first BCS rankings are released). Here is how the computers see things, and when it's this early in the season, the rankings are sure to raise some eyebrows.

Billingsley
1. LSU

2. Oklahoma

3. Alabama

4. USC

5. Missouri

Colley
1. Alabama

2. Vanderbilt

3. Utah

4. Texas

5. Northwestern

Massey
1. Alabama

2. Northwestern

3. Vanderbilt

4. Utah

5. Boise State

Sagarin
1. Alabama

2. Utah

3. Boise State

4. Texas

5. Oklahoma

It makes one wonder what exactly Mr. Massey's criteria are for ranking college football teams. Academics must matter as much as strength of schedule and margin of victory. That's the only rational explanation for Northwestern and Vanderbilt appearing in two of the rankings. Vandy is probably getting props for winning at Ole Miss, especially after the Rebs won in the Swamp last weekend. Mr. Billingsley's rankings appear quite similar to the human polls, except for the appearance of USC, which has a loss (and a pretty bad one, too, to Oregon State). The only school to appear in the top 5 of all four computer polls - Alabama. At least they all agree the Tide is off to a strong start, what with whipping Clemson and Georgia on the road. Utah appears in three of the polls, and that's better than Texas or Oklahoma, who appear in just two of the four available computer rankings.

Northwestern is an intriguing story, and one that TWP will be keeping an eye on. They have a young coach, Pat Fitzgerald, that has really energized the program. A surprising road win at Iowa has the Wildcats 5-0. Their schedule is relatively weak, and they avoid two of the better Big Ten teams this year, Penn State and Wisconsin. Their toughest remaining game is Ohio State, and the game is in Evanston on Nov. 8th. Northwestern's remaining schedule:

Oct. 11 Michigan State

Oct. 18 Purdue

Oct. 25 at Indiana

Nov. 1 at Minnesota

Nov. 8 Ohio State

Nov. 15 at Michigan

Nov. 22 at Illinois

Many have Penn State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin as the teams competing for the Big Ten's BCS bid (or bids, depending on how things shake out). But I wouldn't forget about Northwestern. They could be a spoiler, and possibly sneak into Rose Bowl contention should any of those other teams falter (or end up in the BCS National Championship Game).

Auburn, Statistically Speaking . . .

2008-09-30T09:03:00.002-04:00

The numbers don't lie, kids. They confirm what everyone already knows: the defense has carried the Tigers through the first 5 games. (Rankings are national/SEC)

Offense:

Total - 90th/10th (329.4 yards/game)

Rush - 56th/5th (156.2 yards/game)

Pass - 97th/9th (173.2 yards/game)

Scoring - 97th/9th (19.8 points/game)

Defense:

Total - 5th/2nd (246.0 yards/game)

Rush - 18th/5th (92.2 yards/game)

Pass - 12th/2nd (153.8 yards/game)

Scoring - 5th/1st (10.6 points/game)

Here's something I found surprising: Auburn's average passing yards per game in 2007, under offensive coordinator Al Borges - 178.23 yards/game. The Tigers' passing game production has actually changed very little (just 5 yards a game; roughly the equivalent of one check-down to Tommy Trott), at least based on the evidence of the first 5 games. That could change over the course of the final 7-plus games, however. I think the lesson I take from this is that Auburn is at least on par with last year's production. And that's a good thing, considering Auburn has a new coordinator and a new quarterback. Granted, the spread was supposed to dramatically improve the passing game. I think it will, eventually, but it's going to take some time.

So, what about the rushing offense? Well, in 2007, Auburn averaged 156.9 yards/game. The running game is still producing at a level consistent with the previous offensive system. That was surprising to find, too. I did find something, however, that differs dramatically from last season: Auburn is running the ball MORE as the game goes on, and passing LESS in the 2nd half of games. That is markedly different from 2007. Here are Auburn's rushing attempts, by quarter for 2007:

1st: 142

2nd: 139

3rd: 131

4th: 125

Compare that to Auburn's rushing attempts, by quarter, through 5 games in 2008:

1st: 41

2nd: 48

3rd: 60

4th: 57

The trend is the reverse from 2007: Auburn gets more conservative as the game goes on, not less. Perhaps this is part of Tony Franklin's philosophy. Last year, Auburn ran to set up the pass. Franklin likes to throw to set up the run (or at least he's trying to). This year's numbers could also indicate Coach Tuberville's penchant for putting the clamps on the offense in the 2nd half to protect the lead and bleed the clock. Maybe it's because incompletions stop the clock, lead to shorter offensive possessions, and give the defense less time to rest between series. Whatever the reason, it's a shift from the old offense.

This trend is even more obvious when you compare the passing stats from 2007 and 2008. Auburn attempted 162 pass plays in the 1st half during 2007, and 194 pass plays in the 2nd half. In 2007, Auburn has attempted 81 passes in the 1st half, and just 67 in the 2nd half.

This is something to keep an eye on. Until the Tigers can settle on a quarterback, and can have that quarterback consistently produce, you're going to see these trends continue on offense.

Dave's Power 10

2008-09-29T13:32:00.004-04:00

Oklahoma (4-0) Best offense in the college game, so far. The Big XII won't be a cakewalk, however.

Alabama (5-0) That's 2 big wins in the state of Georgia for the Tide. Don't be surprised if they make it back to play a third (and I'm not talking about the Chik-fil-a Bowl).

LSU (4-0) Avoided a letdown after the big win at Auburn, but I was surprised that Mississippi State kept it that close (or scored, for that matter).

Texas (4-0) Arkansas is hapless. I need to see Texas against a real team before I really know how good they are.

Missouri (4-0) Bitchin' offense? Check. Experienced quarterback? Check. Playmaker that can catch, run and return? Check. Defense? We'll have to see about that last one.

Penn State (5-0) Ready to hear the term "Spread HD" about 700 trillion more times this season?

BYU (4-0) Brigham Old is off to a fast start, and they're now the standard-bearers as the BCS-buster after losses by Fresno, ECU, and TCU.

Utah (5-0) Isn't this convenient: a nice little Thursday-nighter against Oregon State on the heels of the Beavers' upset of USC.

USC (2-1) Guys, can we all remember to read the memo about coming to play against Pac-10 doormats?

Georgia (4-1) Well, that should take care of that "Blackout" crap. Burn the black unis, fellas. They motivated Alabama a lot more than they motivated you.

First Look: Vanderbilt

2008-09-29T11:56:00.003-04:00

Record: 4-0 (2-0, 1st SEC East)

Schedule/Results:

8/28 at Miami, OH (34-13)
9/4 South Carolina (24-17)
9/13 Rice (38-21)

9.20 at Ole Miss (23-17)

10/4 Auburn

10/11 at Mississippi State

10/18 at Georgia

10/25 Duke

11/8 Florida

11/15 at Kentucky

11/22 Tennessee

11/29 at Wake Forest

Offense:

282.8 total yards/game (112th in nation)

202 rush yards/game (26th)

80.8 pass yards/game (116th)

29.8 points/game (52nd)

Defense:

364 total yards/game (73rd in nation)

124.3 rush yards/game (45th)

240.0 pass yards/game (93rd)

17.0 points/game (30th)

"George is getting frustrated!"

2008-09-29T11:23:00.004-04:00

Exasperated? Frustrated? Beleagured? Just tired? Well, you are probably not alone, Auburn fans. The good news: Auburn (4-1, 2-1) managed to hold on for a 14-12 victory against the Tennessee Volunteers (1-3, 0-2). T he loss has Tennessee off to its worst start since 1994. The bad news: Auburn's offense is still not producing the yardage and point totals that many predicted before the season began. In fact, Auburn's defense accounted for as many points as the offense. Jake Ricks' fumble recovery in the end zone in the 2nd quarter proved to be the difference-maker. This is probably not what Tommy Tuberville imagined when he signed up for "The Tony Franklin System." Auburn's offense managed only 226 total yards (129 passing, 97 rushing) and 7 points. Penalties were again a problem. The Tigers were flagged 9 times. Despite the struggles on offense, the Auburn defense played its best in the 4th quarter.

The Volunteers began their last 6 offensive drives near midfield or in Auburn territory and scored on only one possession. The other 5 ended in a 3-and-out for the Auburn defense. The defense held Jonathan Crompton to 8 of 23 passing for 67 yards. Montario Hardesty was the Vols' leading rusher with 35 yards on 10 carries. Auburn held the Volunteers to 4 of 16 on 3rd down conversions.

Frustration for Auburn fans (at least this Auburn fan) centers on two areas: the quarterback and the offensive line. Chris Todd's arm looked weak, and his accuracy was poor. Todd went 14 of 23 for 96 yards, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception against Tennessee. Todd appeared to make several poor decisions, often throwing into congested areas with multiple defenders surrounding the Auburn receiver. Kodi Burns was not much better, completing 4 of 6 passes for 36 yards. Most of Burns' plays, however, were designed runs that did not appear to catch the Vols' defense off guard. The offensive line was again plagued by false-starts and holding penalties. Left tackle Lee Ziemba has been particularly prone to committing penalties this season.

Auburn will have to work hard to correct its mistakes as they prepare to travel to Nashville to take on the 19th-ranked Vanderbilt Commodores. Vanderbilt enters the game 4-0 (2-0). ESPN's College Gameday will be on the scene, too. The kickoff is scheduled for 6 PM (Eastern) on ESPN. The early line has Auburn as a 4.5-point favorite. The Weekly Preview will have more on this game throughtout the week as we countdown to Saturday.